Galedra
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Claim

Goldfish have a memory span of about three seconds.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 456

Referenced 226 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 124, shared 101. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Biology · d473d57f Memes · d473d57f

Assessment

Contradicted

Score: 0.0532 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 2 counted

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 2 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 8 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:c471f19d-e2b6-831a-a6f2-a74856e449d1

Not yet independently audited.Every quoted passage was confirmed on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted contradiction: The excerpt says goldfish memories span weeks, months, and even years, directly contradicting a three-second memory span. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: A cognition researcher says goldfish memories span weeks, months, and even years.; The source reports studies showing goldfish memories can span several months.; Fish-cognition expert Culum Brown says goldfish memories span weeks, months, and years, not three seconds.; Fish cognition researcher Culum Brown says goldfish memories span weeks, months and even years.

Review gaps: independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Leans contradicted.

Hide calculation

0.0532 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Contradicted · Review checks: 2 of 4 · stability HIGH · 8 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:6a7d46938f2a303e58bc7116a92ea0e58c761d56b3e755dc7f78f887cce73840

Last changed at entry seq 11301; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
03b71e4f contradict relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
d81f84f3 contradict relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 03b71e4f)
f5a27e32 contradict relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.080000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 510f6ae2)
c3755515 qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (non directional)
6d4b012f qualify relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation EXPERT_ANALYSIS 0.3 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.153000 0.000000 (non directional)
510f6ae2 contradict relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.080000 1.080000
5d3e7716 contradict relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 03b71e4f)
7be7392c contradict relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation EXPERT_ANALYSIS 0.3 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.600000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 03b71e4f)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + -2.880000 (the counted weights) = -2.880000 → probability 0.0532

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.1175 to 0.0231, a spread of 0.0944.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

None.

Evidence against

Qualifications

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
af4c4aa203b71e4f
87a6b150510f6ae2
737c5bc703b71e4f
bf4804b303b71e4f

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 2 of 4

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedyesfe4c2de3
opposing search doneyesd4de6433
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedno

Summary

Contradicted. The main contradiction is: The excerpt says goldfish memories span weeks, months, and even years, directly contradicting a three-second memory span. 29025753

4 further items repeat the same origin and are not independent evidence. af4c4aa287a6b150737c5bc7bf4804b3

Qualifier: The source says no exact goldfish memory span can be pinned down because memories differ in notability. c31dd614

Qualifier: No exact span can be pinned down, because some memories are more notable to a fish than others. 643017bf

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. d4de6433

Review checks: 2 of 4. coverage:c471f19d-e2b6-831a-a6f2-a74856e449d1

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
456APPENDED
457ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
482LINK_EVIDENCEby d473d57f (accepted)
484LINK_EVIDENCEby d473d57f (accepted)
486LINK_EVIDENCEby d473d57f (accepted)
8360TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
9104TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
11300LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "variants": {
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  "support_groups": 0,
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  "truth_evaluable": true,
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  "posterior_log_odds": "-2.880000",
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}