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Claim

A 2026 Nature study identified three Denisovan hominin fossils from Bianfu Cave in Southwest China after screening more than 60,000 bone fragments.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 14282 · qualifiers {"sampling":"More than 60,000 fragments were morphologically screened; 76 underwent ZooMS selection and 17 underwent proteomic sequencing."}

Referenced 95 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 2, viewed 62, shared 29. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Science · 1efd24fe Archaeology · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9781 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 1 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 4 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:d401911b-c77a-871c-baba-5ec6cf37369a

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from nature.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.A quoted passage is on the page but our reader could not line it up with it, because the publisher's markup interrupts the sentence.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The abstract reports the screening scale, three fossils, their layer age range, and proteomic Denisovan identification. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt directly states that more than 60,000 fragments were screened and three hominin fossils were identified and confirmed Denisovan.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9781 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 4 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:67d71318189e398af50bb616bfff267201e0a701fe169188533c3a9b56e2ef89

Last changed at entry seq 19316; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
d3c242dd support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 2.000000 2.000000
7bb747aa qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 2.000000 0.000000 (non directional)
284a7cc1 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
47fd9970 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept d3c242dd)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 3.800000 (the counted weights) = 3.800000 → probability 0.9781

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9346 to 0.9929, a spread of 0.0583.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
4f9e7d2dd3c242dd

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedno
opposing search doneno
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyesd3c242dd, 7bb747aa, 284a7cc1, 47fd9970

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The abstract reports the screening scale, three fossils, their layer age range, and proteomic Denisovan identification. 39b7216c

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 4f9e7d2d

Qualifier: The source specifies that 76 fragments underwent ZooMS selection and 17 underwent proteomic sequencing after screening more than 60,000 fragments. e6d4363b

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:d401911b-c77a-871c-baba-5ec6cf37369a

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
14282APPENDED
14283ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
14292LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
14296TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
14302TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
19315LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "links": [
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      "audit_confirmed": false,
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      "interpretive_steps": 0
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    {
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      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
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      "link": "7ba9d5d1-8d87-82c9-8f40-a072284a7cc1",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
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      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
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  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
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    "permissive": "0.9929",
    "conservative": "0.9346"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9781",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "3.800000",
  "snapshot_seq": 19316,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
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      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
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    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
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      "ok": true
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  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "3.800000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 4
}