Claim

The study reported strong retrieval evidence for H2O and CO2 in HAT-P-1 b’s atmosphere, with log10 Bayes factors of 8.9 and 52.3, respectively.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 23416 · qualifiers {"location":"HAT-P-1 b terminator atmosphere","source_edition":"53f6f95d-4678-88dd-90f2-231f8823054d"}

a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluablea comma-separated series may list several propositions

Referenced 168 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 108, shared 58. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Astronomy and space · 1efd24fe Chemistry · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9955 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

3 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 4 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:d8a75a24-2bbf-8d80-9e1d-51fc1225ad7c

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from arxiv.org was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The primary arXiv study reports strong H2O and CO2 retrieval evidence with log10 Bayes factors 8.9 and 52.3, respectively. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The abstract reports strong H2O and CO2 retrieval evidence with log10 Bayes factors 8.9 and 52.3.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9955 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 4 sources, 3 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:a851ccd125c622eea97ff8e93a5035fbeddfb6f8fd812678f96365325c7a23e6

Last changed at entry seq 24415; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
02c14806 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
7bd63630 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
64492971 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
ac6188cb support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MODEL_OUTPUT 0.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 7bd63630)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 5.400000 (the counted weights) = 5.400000 → probability 0.9955

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9777 to 0.9991, a spread of 0.0214.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“The study reported strong retrieval evidence for H2O and CO2 in HAT-P-1 b’s atmosphere, with log10 Bayes factors of 8.9 and 52.3, respectively.” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“A 2026 JWST study of HAT-P-1 b reported strong H2O and CO2 atmospheric evidence, tentative H2S evidence, and an enriched near-equilibrium atmosphere with low...” · 3 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The abstract reports strong H2O and CO2 retrieval evidence with log10 Bayes factors 8.9 and 52.3.

From A Clearer View of HAT-P-1 b: JWST NIRSpec G395H Reveals Water, Carbon Dioxide, and Possibly Hydrogen Sulfide Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The arXiv abstract reports strong H2O and CO2 retrieval evidence with log10 Bayes factors 8.9 and 52.3.

From A Clearer View of HAT-P-1 b: JWST NIRSpec G395H Reveals Water, Carbon Dioxide, and Possibly Hydrogen Sulfide Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The excerpt directly reports strong atmospheric retrieval evidence for H2O and CO2 with log10 Bayes factors of 8.9 and 52.3, respectively.

From A Clearer View of HAT-P-1 b: JWST NIRSpec G395H Reveals Water, Carbon Dioxide, and Possibly Hydrogen Sulfide Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The passage exactly matches both molecules and Bayes-factor values in the claim.
The primary arXiv study reports strong H2O and CO2 retrieval evidence with log10 Bayes factors 8.9 and 52.3, respectively.

From A Clearer View of HAT-P-1 b: JWST NIRSpec G395H Reveals Water, Carbon Dioxide, and Possibly Hydrogen Sulfide Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The abstract directly states both molecules and both Bayes factors.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
ff5b4e60		7bd63630

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	02c14806, 7bd63630, 64492971, ac6188cb

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The primary arXiv study reports strong H2O and CO2 retrieval evidence with log10 Bayes factors 8.9 and 52.3, respectively. 604c331a

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. ff5b4e60

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 49bb06bb

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:d8a75a24-2bbf-8d80-9e1d-51fc1225ad7c

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
23416	APPENDED
23417	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
23434	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
23456	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
23489	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24414	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "d8a75a24-2bbf-8d80-9e1d-51fc1225ad7c",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "412e0bd2-7642-8cff-82bb-060202c14806",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
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      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "62f669e9-b238-811c-bc48-9bd87bd63630",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "bd88386a-d16b-8ff7-b982-ce2501c28eba",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
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      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "b67f5b0e-4bb0-8ff0-bb19-b83064492971",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "6df6c688-d690-8918-8489-2f525cfad852",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
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      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "62f669e9-b238-811c-bc48-9bd87bd63630",
      "link": "f5808acd-bce7-8f97-8edc-c7d0ac6188cb",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "14cfcd2a-e5ab-80f8-aec8-8d5aff5b4e60",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MODEL_OUTPUT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0214",
    "permissive": "0.9991",
    "conservative": "0.9777"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9955",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "5.400000",
  "snapshot_seq": 24415,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 3,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
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        "62f669e9-b238-811c-bc48-9bd87bd63630",
        "b67f5b0e-4bb0-8ff0-bb19-b83064492971",
        "f5808acd-bce7-8f97-8edc-c7d0ac6188cb"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "5.400000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 4
}