Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

Climate · 1efd24fe Employment · 1efd24fe Statistics · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted support: The primary study reports the estimated publication decline associated with a 1 μg m−3 increase in annual PM2.5. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The study's instrumental-variable estimate links a 1 μg m−3 annual PM2.5 increase to a 0.23% publication decline among Chinese scholars.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

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Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “Using an instrumental-variable design for Chinese scholars, the study estimated that a 1 μg m−3 increase in annual PM2.5 caused a 0.23% decline in academic...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
• “Using an instrumental-variable design for Chinese scholars, the study estimated that a 1 μg m−3 increase in annual PM2.5 caused a 0.23% decline in academic...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
• “Using an instrumental-variable design for Chinese scholars, the study estimated that a 1 μg m−3 increase in annual PM2.5 caused a 0.23% decline in academic...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

• The study's instrumental-variable estimate links a 1 μg m−3 annual PM2.5 increase to a 0.23% publication decline among Chinese scholars.

  From Impacts of PM2.5 air pollution on high-skilled worker productivity in China Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

• The quoted passage directly supports the instrumental-variable estimate, 0.23% publication decline, and stronger effect during heavy-pollution years.

  From Impacts of PM2.5 air pollution on high-skilled worker productivity in China Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

• Independent coverage reports the 0.23% publication decline and stronger effects among younger and highly productive Chinese researchers.

  From Air pollution reduced the productivity of Chinese researchers, study finds Read 2026-09-29 Relevance STRONG Steps 0 Counted

  Secondary coverage; publication output and study population match the claim, while the source remains a report of the primary study.

• The Nature Human Behaviour abstract independently reports the IV design, 0.23% publication decline per 1 μg m−3 PM2.5, and heavier-pollution effect.

  From Impacts of PM2.5 air pollution on high-skilled worker productivity in China Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

• The primary study reports the estimated publication decline associated with a 1 μg m−3 increase in annual PM2.5.

  From Impacts of PM2.5 air pollution on high-skilled worker productivity in China Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  Independent primary source passage.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
a74c38a5		94117648

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	65a62de5, 08602efc, c52cc33b, 94117648

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
16492	APPENDED
16493	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
16498	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
16526	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
16538	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
17664	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
19644	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)