Claim

Using an instrumental-variable design for Chinese scholars, the study estimated that a 1 μg m−3 increase in annual PM2.5 caused a 0.23% decline in academic publications, with larger effects during heavy-pollution years.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 16492

32 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a comma-separated series may list several propositions

Referenced 146 times: checked 3, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 87, shared 56. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Climate · 1efd24fe Employment · 1efd24fe Statistics · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9908 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

3 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 5 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:dfe5d13c-8367-853f-99fb-5517e3a88048

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from nature.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The primary study reports the estimated publication decline associated with a 1 μg m−3 increase in annual PM2.5. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The study's instrumental-variable estimate links a 1 μg m−3 annual PM2.5 increase to a 0.23% publication decline among Chinese scholars.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9908 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 5 sources, 3 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:2879e77a030574caa73bb666b89116edb489f9cafadf9eaac17c6af3ec74b27c

Last changed at entry seq 19645; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
65a62de5 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MODEL_OUTPUT 0.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000
08602efc support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MODEL_OUTPUT 0.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 94117648)
c52cc33b support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
ccdb0d26 support	relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.080000	1.080000
94117648 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 4.680000 (the counted weights) = 4.680000 → probability 0.9908

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9636 to 0.9977, a spread of 0.0341.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“Using an instrumental-variable design for Chinese scholars, the study estimated that a 1 μg m−3 increase in annual PM2.5 caused a 0.23% decline in academic...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“Using an instrumental-variable design for Chinese scholars, the study estimated that a 1 μg m−3 increase in annual PM2.5 caused a 0.23% decline in academic...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“Using an instrumental-variable design for Chinese scholars, the study estimated that a 1 μg m−3 increase in annual PM2.5 caused a 0.23% decline in academic...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The study's instrumental-variable estimate links a 1 μg m−3 annual PM2.5 increase to a 0.23% publication decline among Chinese scholars.

From Impacts of PM2.5 air pollution on high-skilled worker productivity in China Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The quoted passage directly supports the instrumental-variable estimate, 0.23% publication decline, and stronger effect during heavy-pollution years.

From Impacts of PM2.5 air pollution on high-skilled worker productivity in China Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
Independent coverage reports the 0.23% publication decline and stronger effects among younger and highly productive Chinese researchers.

From Air pollution reduced the productivity of Chinese researchers, study finds Read 2026-09-29 Relevance STRONG Steps 0 Counted

Secondary coverage; publication output and study population match the claim, while the source remains a report of the primary study.
The Nature Human Behaviour abstract independently reports the IV design, 0.23% publication decline per 1 μg m−3 PM2.5, and heavier-pollution effect.

From Impacts of PM2.5 air pollution on high-skilled worker productivity in China Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The primary study reports the estimated publication decline associated with a 1 μg m−3 increase in annual PM2.5.

From Impacts of PM2.5 air pollution on high-skilled worker productivity in China Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Independent primary source passage.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
a74c38a5		94117648

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	65a62de5, 08602efc, c52cc33b, 94117648

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The primary study reports the estimated publication decline associated with a 1 μg m−3 increase in annual PM2.5. 6a9cb4b6

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. a74c38a5

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 4c3a2f77

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:dfe5d13c-8367-853f-99fb-5517e3a88048

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
16492	APPENDED
16493	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
16498	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
16526	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
16538	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
17664	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
19644	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "variants": {
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  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
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