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Claim

During the first two migratory seasons after the 2024 Klamath dam removals, Chinook salmon recolonized 88% of their documented historical distribution, expanding into 345 km of reconnected habitat and reaching elevations up to 1,250 m.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 17256 · qualifiers {"period":"first two migratory seasons after removal","location":"upper Klamath River Basin","intervention":"four dam removals in 2024","source_edition":"3b9874a6-e0be-8538-9348-39d67dd84713"}

35 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluablea comma-separated series may list several propositions

Referenced 89 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 51, shared 36. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Biology · 1efd24fe Wildlife · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9734 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:e0066c8c-df9e-8a2b-b229-30d6b3c8adbd

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.Every quoted passage was confirmed on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The USGS publication record independently reproduces the 88% recolonization, 345 km expansion, and 1,250 m elevation findings. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The passage directly reports 88% historical-distribution recolonization, 345 km of habitat expansion, and 1,250 m maximum elevation.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9734 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 3 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:3f78bd876cb40ea8426fd27eac81c8ba13eac6c050c4d957139f18531ff7725b

Last changed at entry seq 17296; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
d0c448da support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
ba121585 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
79afbdea support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept ba121585)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 3.600000 (the counted weights) = 3.600000 → probability 0.9734

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9255 to 0.9908, a spread of 0.0653.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
57665975ba121585

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedno
opposing search doneno
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyesd0c448da, ba121585, 79afbdea

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The USGS publication record independently reproduces the 88% recolonization, 345 km expansion, and 1,250 m elevation findings. baacc0da

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 57665975

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. 1a7dd892

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:e0066c8c-df9e-8a2b-b229-30d6b3c8adbd

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
17256APPENDED
17257ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
17266LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
17269TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
17295LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "e0066c8c-df9e-8a2b-b229-30d6b3c8adbd",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "7b2012aa-d0dd-8ab5-a989-db91d0c448da",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "6a64c3cc-866a-8029-a103-a199baacc0da",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "9fc176bd-099b-8df6-90d4-9c86ba121585",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "53ef58ee-6e45-8d91-bc2c-dcf9017a5ee7",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "9fc176bd-099b-8df6-90d4-9c86ba121585",
      "link": "a23efc5d-416a-8afe-a65a-adbd79afbdea",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "23d5d6c2-9944-85de-a5f7-e10057665975",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0653",
    "permissive": "0.9908",
    "conservative": "0.9255"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9734",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "3.600000",
  "snapshot_seq": 17296,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "7b2012aa-d0dd-8ab5-a989-db91d0c448da",
        "9fc176bd-099b-8df6-90d4-9c86ba121585",
        "a23efc5d-416a-8afe-a65a-adbd79afbdea"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "3.600000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}