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Claim

Compared with matched controls, female victim-survivors of disclosed financial abuse had higher cash withdrawals and transport/legal costs and were more likely to claim welfare benefits in the seven-year pre-disclosure period.

Type COMPARATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 20009 · qualifiers {"population":"5,428 female victim-survivors identified from bank disclosures and 15,602 matched controls with no known disclosures."}

30 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 130 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 88, shared 40. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Markets · 1efd24fe Crime · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9781 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 1 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 4 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:e09b26fc-ad96-86e1-bafc-c7136583b686

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.Every quoted passage was confirmed on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The abstract reports increased cash withdrawals, higher transport and legal costs and greater welfare-benefit claiming compared with controls. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt directly reports higher transport and legal costs, increased cash withdrawals, and greater welfare-benefit claiming versus matched controls.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9781 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 4 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:2bc725ab4645074ff9682e057960d99693b3dffc502b97d7d7bfeb6871d236fd

Last changed at entry seq 26026; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
ff269ba3 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept c23e6f80)
c39a1e1c qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (non directional)
c23e6f80 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 2.000000 2.000000
ec6c68e2 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 3.800000 (the counted weights) = 3.800000 → probability 0.9781

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9346 to 0.9929, a spread of 0.0583.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
2a3f169cc23e6f80

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedno
opposing search doneno
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyesff269ba3, c39a1e1c, c23e6f80

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The abstract reports increased cash withdrawals, higher transport and legal costs and greater welfare-benefit claiming compared with controls. 49a7f1af

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 2a3f169c

Qualifier: The comparison is observational, limited to self-disclosing women with accounts at one UK bank and a maximum seven-year pre-disclosure window; it does not establish causality. 3a5c251e

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:e09b26fc-ad96-86e1-bafc-c7136583b686

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
20009APPENDED
20010ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
20019LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
20033LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
24809TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
26025TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "e09b26fc-ad96-86e1-bafc-c7136583b686",
  "links": [
    {
      "kept": "c73699d0-96c3-8c01-92f3-5471c23e6f80",
      "link": "8523edf1-6f24-88a6-bf3b-1a72ff269ba3",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "d6e1c0a6-fe26-850a-b1e7-44692a3f169c",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "90006ba6-de9f-8b3f-abb0-da91c39a1e1c",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "025c306e-06be-8e83-8f79-377f3a5c251e",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "c73699d0-96c3-8c01-92f3-5471c23e6f80",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "f6a0d753-c0ca-862e-873b-2e1f49a7f1af",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "2.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "c8c482c3-2a00-8403-b65d-1d5eec6c68e2",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "d59b37a3-fd3b-844f-bac1-d56044fbeabb",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0583",
    "permissive": "0.9929",
    "conservative": "0.9346"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "COMPARATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9781",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "3.800000",
  "snapshot_seq": 26026,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "8523edf1-6f24-88a6-bf3b-1a72ff269ba3",
        "90006ba6-de9f-8b3f-abb0-da91c39a1e1c",
        "c73699d0-96c3-8c01-92f3-5471c23e6f80"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "3.800000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 4
}