Claim

In the study’s Bayesian protein phylogenies, each of the five Bianfu Cave samples formed a monophyletic group with Denisova 3 with posterior probability of 100%.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 19229

Referenced 104 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 79, shared 24. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Archaeology · 1efd24fe Biology · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.8808 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 1 by the author only

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:ec9ed683-83ce-8075-aceb-b5e8e42ed87f

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.Every quoted passage was confirmed on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The primary study reports monophyletic placement with Denisova 3 and 100% posterior probability for each sample. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt directly reports each Bianfu Cave sample grouped with Denisova 3 at 100% posterior probability.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

Hide calculation

0.8808 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 3 sources, 1 independent lineage

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:290843d906d189d49c3b4afdfe61d1bde3f029ef2a216d646cffc4747a6fc93b

Last changed at entry seq 25952; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
d8630bc8 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept ac9a4506)
ee673e9b qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)
ac9a4506 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	2.000000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 2.000000 (the counted weights) = 2.000000 → probability 0.8808

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.8022 to 0.9309, a spread of 0.1287.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“A 2026 Nature study used ancient-protein analysis to identify five Denisovan specimens from Bianfu Cave in Southwest China, including three newly identified...” · 3 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The primary study reports monophyletic placement with Denisova 3 and 100% posterior probability for each sample.

From Ancient proteins identify various Denisovan remains from Southwest China Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Primary Bayesian phylogenetic result.
The excerpt directly reports each Bianfu Cave sample grouped with Denisova 3 at 100% posterior probability.

From Ancient proteins identify various Denisovan remains from Southwest China Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

The five samples had unequal sequence coverage, representing 18.6% to 36.7% of total protein alignments, and were dated to Middle Pleistocene layers.

From Ancient proteins identify various Denisovan remains from Southwest China Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The 100% posterior probability applies to five specific Bianfu Cave samples with unequal protein alignment coverage and Middle Pleistocene archaeological context, not an unrestricted Denisovan population.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
e8cf9186		ac9a4506

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	d8630bc8, ee673e9b, ac9a4506

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The primary study reports monophyletic placement with Denisova 3 and 100% posterior probability for each sample. cb0ad567

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. e8cf9186

Qualifier: The five samples had unequal sequence coverage, representing 18.6% to 36.7% of total protein alignments, and were dated to Middle Pleistocene layers. bffa8894

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:ec9ed683-83ce-8075-aceb-b5e8e42ed87f

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
19229	APPENDED
19230	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
19245	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24754	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
25951	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "claim": "ec9ed683-83ce-8075-aceb-b5e8e42ed87f",
  "links": [
    {
      "kept": "c4d92a84-9eea-8057-98d9-f88eac9a4506",
      "link": "9f85ad0a-8d5a-8a02-ac9c-305fd8630bc8",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "ef31b0dd-a274-816c-8761-0128e8cf9186",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "c2425ecd-1e49-8eb6-a49b-acb8ee673e9b",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "5f731aff-8fb0-8074-bb40-9031bffa8894",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "c4d92a84-9eea-8057-98d9-f88eac9a4506",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "bacbb75a-ba6c-8579-bce3-669ecb0ad567",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "2.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1287",
    "permissive": "0.9309",
    "conservative": "0.8022"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8808",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "2.000000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25952,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "9f85ad0a-8d5a-8a02-ac9c-305fd8630bc8",
        "c2425ecd-1e49-8eb6-a49b-acb8ee673e9b",
        "c4d92a84-9eea-8057-98d9-f88eac9a4506"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "2.000000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}