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Claim

Radiocarbon modeling of 26 Sântana de Mureș-Chernyakhov individuals in a Carpathian cemetery suggests the cemetery was established a few years after the Roman Empire’s retreat, used for only a few decades, and shows no identified founding generation or subsequent large-scale mobility.

Type HISTORICAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 17456 · qualifiers {"method":"radiocarbon modeling and bioarchaeological analysis","period":"post-Roman retreat; occupation of a few decades at most","location":"Sântana de Mureș, Transylvania/Carpathians","population":"26 cemetery individuals","source_edition":"bcf112cd-4f8b-8e18-9b33-3138d689edc3"}

41 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluablea comma-separated series may list several propositions

Referenced 100 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 77, shared 22. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Archaeology · 1efd24fe Biology · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.8581 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 2 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:f29b84f4-1307-8f78-9f50-132b2ae98425

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.Every quoted passage was confirmed on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The study reports the 26-person sample, short cemetery-use estimate, and no identified large-scale mobility. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The passage directly reports the 26-person sample, post-Roman timing, short cemetery use, and no identified large-scale mobility.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

Hide calculation

0.8581 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 2 sources, 1 independent lineage

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:e1b433cfb9848b54325bf459e883d98a4ddd30fbfddcaae5459471a7450f4cee

Last changed at entry seq 17484; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
c1d11896 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept fd22a969)
fd22a969 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 1.800000 (the counted weights) = 1.800000 → probability 0.8581

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.7790 to 0.9121, a spread of 0.1331.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
31342578fd22a969

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedno
opposing search doneno
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyesc1d11896, fd22a969

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The study reports the 26-person sample, short cemetery-use estimate, and no identified large-scale mobility. 2700b399

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 31342578

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. b688477d

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:f29b84f4-1307-8f78-9f50-132b2ae98425

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
17456APPENDED
17457ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
17468LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
17475TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "f29b84f4-1307-8f78-9f50-132b2ae98425",
  "links": [
    {
      "kept": "1c8f6e52-be3c-8a1e-95f9-a05dfd22a969",
      "link": "0434be7c-807a-8e3d-8a6c-9f2bc1d11896",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "6ee3dd63-af76-8da0-a772-47dd31342578",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "1c8f6e52-be3c-8a1e-95f9-a05dfd22a969",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "7a9d32d8-ab4d-891e-bdf2-d5932700b399",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1331",
    "permissive": "0.9121",
    "conservative": "0.7790"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "HISTORICAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8581",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "1.800000",
  "snapshot_seq": 17484,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "0434be7c-807a-8e3d-8a6c-9f2bc1d11896",
        "1c8f6e52-be3c-8a1e-95f9-a05dfd22a969"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "1.800000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 2
}