Claim

The study reported tentative retrieval evidence for H2S in HAT-P-1 b’s atmosphere, with log10 Bayes factor 1.4.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 23420 · qualifiers {"location":"HAT-P-1 b terminator atmosphere","source_edition":"53f6f95d-4678-88dd-90f2-231f8823054d"}

Referenced 170 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 116, shared 52. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Astronomy and space · 1efd24fe Chemistry · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9993 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

4 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 6 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:f3795d1d-19ed-8a8d-89b6-7c337883a647

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from arxiv.org was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The retrieval reports tentative H2S evidence in HAT-P-1 b with log10 Bayes factor 1.4. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The abstract reports tentative H2S retrieval evidence with log10 Bayes factor 1.4.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9993 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 6 sources, 4 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:e17afb5ad8dd810d27884ecd56525a79892f8b16e9002bf53d1c67aea44bd25d

Last changed at entry seq 24417; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
c44ed79c support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
7a59b2be support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
8d81f78e support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MODEL_OUTPUT 0.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 7a59b2be)
cbbebe30 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
6e9dc7ba support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
c35b17e4 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 7.200000 (the counted weights) = 7.200000 → probability 0.9993

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9936 to 0.9999, a spread of 0.0063.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“The study reported tentative retrieval evidence for H2S in HAT-P-1 b’s atmosphere, with log10 Bayes factor 1.4.” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“A 2026 JWST study of HAT-P-1 b reported strong H2O and CO2 atmospheric evidence, tentative H2S evidence, and an enriched near-equilibrium atmosphere with low...” · 3 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The abstract reports tentative H2S retrieval evidence with log10 Bayes factor 1.4.

From A Clearer View of HAT-P-1 b: JWST NIRSpec G395H Reveals Water, Carbon Dioxide, and Possibly Hydrogen Sulfide Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The arXiv abstract reports tentative H2S retrieval evidence with log10 Bayes factor 1.4.

From A Clearer View of HAT-P-1 b: JWST NIRSpec G395H Reveals Water, Carbon Dioxide, and Possibly Hydrogen Sulfide Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The excerpt directly reports tentative retrieval evidence for H2S with log10 Bayes factor 1.4.

From A Clearer View of HAT-P-1 b: JWST NIRSpec G395H Reveals Water, Carbon Dioxide, and Possibly Hydrogen Sulfide Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The passage exactly matches the molecule, tentative characterization, and Bayes-factor value.
The retrieval reports tentative H2S evidence in HAT-P-1 b with log10 Bayes factor 1.4.

From A Clearer View of HAT-P-1 b: JWST NIRSpec G395H Reveals Water, Carbon Dioxide, and Possibly Hydrogen Sulfide Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The paper characterizes the H2S signal as a weak hint subject to retrieval degeneracies.

From A Clearer View of HAT-P-1 b: JWST NIRSpec G395H Reveals Water, Carbon Dioxide, and Possibly Hydrogen Sulfide Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

The H2S result derives from 0.3–5.3 μm combined HST/JWST transmission data, three independent reductions, and remains conditional on confirmation at probed pressures.

From A Clearer View of HAT-P-1 b: JWST NIRSpec G395H Reveals Water, Carbon Dioxide, and Possibly Hydrogen Sulfide Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Narrows the data bandpass, instruments, reduction context, and conditional interpretation of the tentative H2S result.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
675ff377		7a59b2be

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	c44ed79c, 7a59b2be, 8d81f78e, cbbebe30, 6e9dc7ba, c35b17e4

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The retrieval reports tentative H2S evidence in HAT-P-1 b with log10 Bayes factor 1.4. 3f742a0c

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 675ff377

Qualifier: The H2S result derives from 0.3–5.3 μm combined HST/JWST transmission data, three independent reductions, and remains conditional on confirmation at probed pressures. 4fae03f3

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 245efa7b

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:f3795d1d-19ed-8a8d-89b6-7c337883a647

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
23420	APPENDED
23421	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
23436	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
23462	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
23491	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
23798	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24416	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "claim": "f3795d1d-19ed-8a8d-89b6-7c337883a647",
  "links": [
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      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
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      "group": null,
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  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
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    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
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}