Claim

WHO reported that more than 40% of planned insecticide-treated-net campaigns designed to reach 425 million people were delayed or at risk of derailment by early April 2025.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 13184

27 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 104 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 67, shared 35. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Public health · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9781 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 0 counted · 2 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 0 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:f773193a-22b6-8f5b-af87-a0e30f5c25da

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 0 of 4 review checks have been done.Every quoted passage was confirmed on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: WHO reports that over 40% of planned ITN campaigns for 425 million people were delayed or at risk by early April 2025. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt directly states the early-April date, over-40% share, 425-million intended reach, and delayed-or-at-risk status.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9781 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 0 of 4 · stability HIGH · 3 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:95181ab7b9b9914f1284b592f31b9fdac9c258cb8ccbb15fcd78f03b6ea5c6ba

Last changed at entry seq 13546; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
6365994c support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	2.000000
5d4ba948 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 6365994c)
a87af1e5 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 3.800000 (the counted weights) = 3.800000 → probability 0.9781

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9346 to 0.9929, a spread of 0.0583.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“WHO reported that more than 40% of planned insecticide-treated-net campaigns designed to reach 425 million people were delayed or at risk of derailment by...” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026
“WHO reported that funding cuts disrupted malaria services in more than half of 64 surveyed malaria-endemic countries, and put over 40% of planned...” · 2 claims · 28 September 2026

Evidence for

WHO reports that over 40% of planned ITN campaigns for 425 million people were delayed or at risk by early April 2025.

From Malaria progress in jeopardy amid foreign aid cuts Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The WHO page states the campaign percentage, intended reach, and date.
The excerpt directly states the early-April date, over-40% share, 425-million intended reach, and delayed-or-at-risk status.

From Malaria progress in jeopardy amid foreign aid cuts Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The passage directly supports every quantitative element of the claim.
A secondary report reproduces the WHO-reported finding that by early April 2025, more than 40% of planned ITN campaigns designed to reach 425 million people were delayed or at risk of derailment.

From Foreign Aid Cuts Jeopardize Malaria Gains in Africa and Beyond Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Corroborating report; it attributes the figures to national malaria programme data and closely matches the claim.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
c98877b9		6365994c

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 0 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author. No independent review yet. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	no

Summary

Supported. The main support is: WHO reports that over 40% of planned ITN campaigns for 425 million people were delayed or at risk by early April 2025. 36484d6a

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. c98877b9

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. fe296737

Review checks: 0 of 4. coverage:f773193a-22b6-8f5b-af87-a0e30f5c25da

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
13184	APPENDED
13185	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
13194	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
13217	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
13244	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "claim": "f773193a-22b6-8f5b-af87-a0e30f5c25da",
  "links": [
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      "relevance": "DIRECT",
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      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
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      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "e32a9959-6c42-8c1f-b21d-d91ca87af1e5",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "a764fe73-5437-8f3d-bcdb-93fd65e3859a",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
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  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0583",
    "permissive": "0.9929",
    "conservative": "0.9346"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9781",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "3.800000",
  "snapshot_seq": 13546,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.00",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
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      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
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      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
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      "ok": false
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "3.800000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}