Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

Biology · 1efd24fe Modern · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted support: The report describes tsunami and backwash transport bringing the marine and freshwater sticklebacks together, producing interspecific hybridization. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt directly supports tsunami transport of marine Japan Sea stickleback and upstream backwash transport of freshwater threespine stickleback into the pond, followed by interspecific hybridization, but it does not state the 2011 date, Iwate location, or that the pond was newly formed.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

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Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “A 2026 report described the natural setting that produced the Japanese stickleback hybrid population.” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

• The report describes tsunami and backwash transport bringing the marine and freshwater sticklebacks together, producing interspecific hybridization.

  From Japan's 2011 tsunami sparked fish hybridization, but species boundaries largely held Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

• The excerpt directly supports tsunami transport of marine Japan Sea stickleback and upstream backwash transport of freshwater threespine stickleback into the pond, followed by interspecific hybridization, but it does not state the 2011 date, Iwate location, or that the pond was newly formed.

  From Japan's 2011 tsunami sparked fish hybridization, but species boundaries largely held Read 2026-09-29 Relevance MODERATE Steps 0 Counted

  Supports the transport and hybridization sequence but not all historical and geographic qualifiers in the claim.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

• The counted report identifies tsunami transport and a freshwater pond but omits the 2011 date and Iwate jurisdiction.

  From Japan's 2011 tsunami sparked fish hybridization, but species boundaries largely held Read 2026-09-29 Relevance MODERATE Steps 0 Counted

  The historical event date and location in the headline are not present in the counted excerpt.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
7304f607		a160b06f

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 0 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author. No independent review yet. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	no

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
23339	APPENDED
23340	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
23345	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24238	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
25203	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "f90fbce3-e2f2-82cd-9f98-317667f55963",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "16581b5b-6ac9-895b-870d-9dafddd86dbd",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "d1439358-8b16-8896-860c-c11966914503",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "0.540000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "1c85739f-f5ea-8402-8594-9bdda160b06f",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "3dadd964-2b31-83d3-abe2-8fdf06dbec02",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "1c85739f-f5ea-8402-8594-9bdda160b06f",
      "link": "e898bf21-046c-801d-af29-8850df6ac6be",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "6ab24c5c-fe9e-8f69-9c32-8e657304f607",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.540000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1331",
    "permissive": "0.9121",
    "conservative": "0.7790"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "HISTORICAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8581",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "1.800000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25904,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.00",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "1.800000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}