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Claim

After four Klamath River hydroelectric dams were removed in 2024, stationary multi-beam imaging SONAR estimated 7,742 adult Chinook salmon migrated upstream in 2024 and 13,310 in 2025, with the stated 95% confidence intervals.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 17252 · qualifiers {"years":"2024 and 2025","location":"Klamath River Basin","monitoring":"stationary high-resolution multi-beam imaging SONAR","intervention":"removal of four hydroelectric dams","source_edition":"3b9874a6-e0be-8538-9348-39d67dd84713"}

33 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluablea comma-separated series may list several propositions

Referenced 85 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 51, shared 32. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Biology · 1efd24fe Wildlife · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9781 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:faed3f82-e7f8-8f75-b22c-d714eabbdbcc

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.Every quoted passage was confirmed on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The study reports the 2024 and 2025 upstream migration estimates and confidence intervals. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The passage directly reports both upstream migration estimates and their 95% confidence intervals after the dam removals.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9781 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 3 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:1e95318f200d1ba8581f6567509100f6729b294b141819b437cb1a5293a5f5b7

Last changed at entry seq 17288; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
09f7189a support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 2.000000 2.000000
a241886f support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
028ebe1e support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 2.000000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 09f7189a)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 3.800000 (the counted weights) = 3.800000 → probability 0.9781

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9346 to 0.9929, a spread of 0.0583.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
0d7d168809f7189a

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedno
opposing search doneno
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyes09f7189a, a241886f, 028ebe1e

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The study reports the 2024 and 2025 upstream migration estimates and confidence intervals. 1e147a0d

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 0d7d1688

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. 313763c7

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:faed3f82-e7f8-8f75-b22c-d714eabbdbcc

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
17252APPENDED
17253ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
17264LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
17271TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
17287LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "faed3f82-e7f8-8f75-b22c-d714eabbdbcc",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "38a3beb0-d6e5-855f-a4dc-150509f7189a",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "c2af2832-1c2c-806c-9399-8b381e147a0d",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "2.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "b990eeb5-8243-8216-b028-ea39a241886f",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "4f7d8d26-f38a-82bf-868d-bf7694cecccc",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "38a3beb0-d6e5-855f-a4dc-150509f7189a",
      "link": "d7ac9bb5-bee4-8980-9653-0d5f028ebe1e",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "9c561a22-d3ea-8da4-ab67-3a830d7d1688",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0583",
    "permissive": "0.9929",
    "conservative": "0.9346"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9781",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "3.800000",
  "snapshot_seq": 17288,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
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      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "38a3beb0-d6e5-855f-a4dc-150509f7189a",
        "b990eeb5-8243-8216-b028-ea39a241886f",
        "d7ac9bb5-bee4-8980-9653-0d5f028ebe1e"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "3.800000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}