Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

AI · 1efd24fe Prices and inflation · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted support: The report says standard ARC-scaffold cost fell from $49,791 to $26,098 while the score rose from 35.2% to 62.7%. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt directly states the two costs and the score increase from 35.2% to 62.7% across reasoning settings.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

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Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “The Decoder reported that maximum-reasoning ARC-AGI-3 testing for GPT-6 Astra cost about $26,098 versus $49,791 with no reasoning, while the score rose from...” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026

Evidence for

• The report says standard ARC-scaffold cost fell from $49,791 to $26,098 while the score rose from 35.2% to 62.7%.

  From Benchmarks disagree on GPT-6 Astra, but its human-beating efficiency on ARC-AGI-3 pulls Chollet’s AGI forecast forward Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  The excerpt directly states both costs, reasoning settings, and score endpoints.

• The excerpt directly states the two costs and the score increase from 35.2% to 62.7% across reasoning settings.

  From Benchmarks disagree on GPT-6 Astra, but its human-beating efficiency on ARC-AGI-3 pulls Chollet’s AGI forecast forward Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  The standard scaffold, no-reasoning and maximum-reasoning conditions, costs, and scores are all stated.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
06d09046		06c739a0

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 0 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author. No independent review yet. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	no

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
12459	APPENDED
12460	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
12465	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
12477	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
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    },
    {
      "kept": "a99e4492-3e3b-846a-afab-ceeb06c739a0",
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      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
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      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1331",
    "permissive": "0.9121",
    "conservative": "0.7790"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8581",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "1.800000",
  "snapshot_seq": 12619,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.00",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
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    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
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    "independence_reviewed": {
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      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
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      "ok": false
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "1.800000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 2
}