Evidence item

Applied to the DESI DR1→ DR2 BAO sequence, the result depends strongly on which departures from ΛCDM the test is designed to detect. For a pre-specified alternative aligned with the DR2-preferred direction, the running evidence reaches MDR2 = 33.97, crossing the threshold of 20 that corresponds to an illustrative 5% false-detection rate and which we use throughout. However, evidence against the null is concentrated almost entirely in the LRG2 redshift bin and removing that bin reduces the running e-value to M = 0.49, mildly favouring ΛCDM. Furthermore, when the analysis allows for any of the seven DESI bins to have possibly produced the excess, the signal does not survive a look-elsewhere correction.