Investigations

“Owning a fleet of robotaxis or humanoid robots is becoming the franchising path to wealth that laundromats and restaurant franchises were decades ago.”

Not settled yet. 1 not yet settled.

Score: 0.5825 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 for all claims together

Review 50% · 50% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“There are no stationary competitive moats during a singularity, only temporary dynamical ones that must be sequenced.”

The evidence goes against this. 1 of 1 checkable claim goes against the evidence.

Score: 0.2854 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 for all claims together

Review 75% · 75% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“The release cadence of new frontier AI models has gone from every few months to about every five days.”

Checks out so far. 1 holds up so far.

Score: 0.9315 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 for all claims together

Review 50% · 50% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“Polymarket traders expect xAI's Grok 4.7 to be released within a week or two of mid-September 2026.”

Checks out so far. 1 holds up so far.

Score: 0.9054 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 for all claims together

Review 50% · 50% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“Dario Amodei has described an end state in which a single company such as Anthropic constitutes all private enterprise.”

The evidence goes against this. 1 of 1 checkable claim goes against the evidence.

Score: 0.2650 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 for all claims together

Review 50% · 50% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“Humans are no longer the smartest things on the planet.”

Checks out so far. 1 holds up so far.

Score: 0.7146 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 for all claims together

Review 75% · 75% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“Blundin said he thought Andrew Yang was saying that there would be a huge resurgence of the trades.”

Not settled yet. 1 not yet settled.

Review 75% · 25% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“China Telecom sells access to 142 AI models in the manner of a mobile data plan.”

Checks out so far. 1 holds up so far.

Score: 0.9997 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 for all claims together

Review 75% · 75% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“Some AI researchers are adopting doomer positions in order to stay publicly relevant as the field outpaces them.”

Checks out so far. 1 holds up so far.

Score: 0.6128 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 for all claims together

Review 75% · 75% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“The counted excerpt says a Qwen 27B model can be distilled to about a 6 GB file that can live forever; it does not specify ordinary laptops or phones, nor establish that this applies to every Qwen-class open-weights...”

Checks out so far. 1 holds up so far.

Score: 0.7146 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 for all claims together

Review 50% · 0% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“Studies show that around 74 per cent of work in large companies is coordination work, which Erik Brynjolfsson calls white collar drudgery.”

The evidence goes against this. 1 of 1 checkable claim goes against the evidence.

Score: 0.2854 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 for all claims together

Review 75% · 75% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“A frontier AI lab is already running its own market-beating hedge fund strategy on an internal model.”

The evidence goes against this. 1 of 1 checkable claim goes against the evidence.

Score: 0.0739 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 for all claims together

Review 75% · 75% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“Blundin said Mercor then had 50,000 to 100,000 individual actors, described as effectively little companies, in India and around Brazil.”

The evidence goes against this. 1 of 1 checkable claim goes against the evidence.

Score: 0.2854 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 for all claims together

Review 75% · 25% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“As of early September 2026, publicly downloadable open-weight AI model checkpoints had no vendor-operated remote kill switch built into the weights themselves.”

Checks out so far. 1 holds up so far.

Score: 0.8938 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 for all claims together

Review 50% · 0% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“Elon Musk is building the most vertically integrated company the world has seen, with supply chain control reaching down to turning raw sand into chips.”

The evidence goes against this. 1 of 1 checkable claim goes against the evidence.

Score: 0.2073 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 for all claims together

Review 75% · 75% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“OpenAI announced on 8 September 2026 that an internal AI model produced a proof, formalized in Lean, that three-dimensional Navier–Stokes solutions can develop a singularity in finite time.”

Checks out so far. 1 holds up so far.

Score: 0.9781 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 for all claims together

Review 75% · 75% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“OpenAI reported that its AI research agents now produce about 3.1 days of research work for every day a human researcher works.”

Checks out so far. 1 holds up so far.

Score: 0.9637 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 for all claims together

Review 75% · 75% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“Abundance in healthcare, utility pricing, food, shelter and education is downstream of giving everyone universal basic computing.”

Checks out so far. 1 holds up so far.

Score: 0.6128 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 for all claims together

Review 75% · 75% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“AFP's Danny Kemp asked Trump what signal the ban sent given Xi Jinping's White House visit in the coming weeks and China's record on journalists.”

Checks out so far. 1 holds up so far.

Score: 0.8233 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 for all claims together

Review 75% · 75% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“The OpenAI model that solved Navier-Stokes had begun training only nine days before the episode was recorded, implying a new post-training method.”

Checks out so far. 1 holds up so far.

Score: 0.9085 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 for all claims together

Review 75% · 75% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited