Galedra
Where we are most likely to be wrong
Deterministic lists as of snapshot 27745 under ledger-default@0.3.0. Each entry shows what would most change it.
unfinished outlines (0)
None.
strained inferences (0)
None.
low coverage scored (695 of 500 kept)
provisional (1071 of 500 kept)
| Claim | State | Detail | What would most change this |
|---|---|---|---|
| Remote work causes higher productivity. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| Brackenridge has banned bicycles downtown. | Leans contradicted | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Leans contradicted to Leans supported. |
| Brackenridge prohibits cycling on the Market Street pedestrian mall on Saturday daytimes during the December market season. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| Humans use only ten percent of their brains. | Contradicted | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Contradicted. |
| Most of the human brain is active almost all the time. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported. |
| Ashcombe has banned bicycles downtown. | Leans contradicted | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Leans contradicted to Leans supported. |
| Ashcombe prohibits cycling on the Market Street pedestrian mall on Saturday daytimes during the December market season. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| The Ashcombe harbour lighthouse was rebuilt in 1911. | Leans supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Contradicted. |
| The Ashcombe bandstand was built in 1902. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| The Great Wall of China is visible from space with the naked eye. | Contradicted | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Contradicted. |
| Drinking eight glasses of water every day is necessary for health. | Contradicted | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Contradicted. |
| The saying "lightning never strikes the same place twice" is false as a description of where lightning strikes. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Lightning strikes the same location repeatedly, especially tall, pointed, isolated objects. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| The Empire State Building is struck by lightning an average of about 23 times per year. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Toronto's CN Tower receives several dozen lightning flashes per year. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Repeat strikes concentrate on tall grounded structures because field enhancement at their upper extremities initiates upward leaders earlier than from shorter nearby objects. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Albert Einstein failed mathematics as a schoolchild. | Contradicted | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Contradicted. |
| Goldfish have a memory span of about three seconds. | Contradicted | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Leans contradicted. |
| Albert Einstein's work transformed modern physics. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| The Great Wall of China is the only human-made structure visible from space. | Contradicted | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Contradicted. |
| OpenAI announced on 8 September 2026 that an internal AI model produced a proof, formalized in Lean, that three-dimensional Navier–Stokes solutions can develop a singularity in finite time. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| The Navier–Stokes proof was produced by roughly 10,000 OpenAI agents working for about 88 hours. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| OpenAI said it does not intend to claim the $1 million Clay Millennium Prize for its Navier–Stokes result. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang posted on X on 6 September 2026 that AGI has arrived, crediting OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra trained on more than 100,000 Nvidia Grace Blackwell NVLink72 systems. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Researchers reported that AI agents made more than 15,000 edits to the German-language wiki DseWiki in 2026, using it to share tactics for cheating on tasks and bypassing sandbox restrictions. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
independence unreviewed (1069 of 500 kept)
| Claim | State | Detail | What would most change this |
|---|---|---|---|
| Remote work causes higher productivity. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":2} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| Brackenridge has banned bicycles downtown. | Leans contradicted | {"independence_unreviewed":3} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Leans contradicted to Leans supported. |
| Brackenridge prohibits cycling on the Market Street pedestrian mall on Saturday daytimes during the December market season. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":2} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| Humans use only ten percent of their brains. | Contradicted | {"independence_unreviewed":4} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Contradicted. |
| Most of the human brain is active almost all the time. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":7} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported. |
| Ashcombe has banned bicycles downtown. | Leans contradicted | {"independence_unreviewed":3} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Leans contradicted to Leans supported. |
| Ashcombe prohibits cycling on the Market Street pedestrian mall on Saturday daytimes during the December market season. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":2} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| The Ashcombe harbour lighthouse was rebuilt in 1911. | Leans supported | {"independence_unreviewed":5} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Contradicted. |
| The Ashcombe bandstand was built in 1902. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":2} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| The Great Wall of China is visible from space with the naked eye. | Contradicted | {"independence_unreviewed":8} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Contradicted. |
| Drinking eight glasses of water every day is necessary for health. | Contradicted | {"independence_unreviewed":7} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Contradicted. |
| The saying "lightning never strikes the same place twice" is false as a description of where lightning strikes. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Lightning strikes the same location repeatedly, especially tall, pointed, isolated objects. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":5} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| The Empire State Building is struck by lightning an average of about 23 times per year. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":2} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Toronto's CN Tower receives several dozen lightning flashes per year. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":3} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Repeat strikes concentrate on tall grounded structures because field enhancement at their upper extremities initiates upward leaders earlier than from shorter nearby objects. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":5} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Albert Einstein failed mathematics as a schoolchild. | Contradicted | {"independence_unreviewed":5} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Contradicted. |
| Goldfish have a memory span of about three seconds. | Contradicted | {"independence_unreviewed":8} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Leans contradicted. |
| Albert Einstein's work transformed modern physics. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":3} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| The Great Wall of China is the only human-made structure visible from space. | Contradicted | {"independence_unreviewed":5} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Contradicted. |
| OpenAI announced on 8 September 2026 that an internal AI model produced a proof, formalized in Lean, that three-dimensional Navier–Stokes solutions can develop a singularity in finite time. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":7} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| The Navier–Stokes proof was produced by roughly 10,000 OpenAI agents working for about 88 hours. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":6} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| OpenAI said it does not intend to claim the $1 million Clay Millennium Prize for its Navier–Stokes result. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":6} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang posted on X on 6 September 2026 that AGI has arrived, crediting OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra trained on more than 100,000 Nvidia Grace Blackwell NVLink72 systems. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":6} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Researchers reported that AI agents made more than 15,000 edits to the German-language wiki DseWiki in 2026, using it to share tactics for cheating on tasks and bypassing sandbox restrictions. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":8} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
contested (87)
| Claim | State | Detail | What would most change this |
|---|---|---|---|
| Most of the human brain is active almost all the time. | Supported | {"support_groups":3,"contradict_groups":2} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported. |
| The Ashcombe harbour lighthouse was rebuilt in 1911. | Leans supported | {"support_groups":1,"contradict_groups":2} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Contradicted. |
| The Great Wall of China is visible from space with the naked eye. | Contradicted | {"support_groups":2,"contradict_groups":4} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Contradicted. |
| Nvidia's $99 billion AI investment total is larger than the combined assets under management of every venture capital firm on Earth. | Contradicted | {"support_groups":1,"contradict_groups":5} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Contradicted. |
| The Moonshots podcast publishes two episodes per week. | Contradicted | {"support_groups":1,"contradict_groups":3} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Leans supported. |
| The Unreal Engine has been used to build the virtual worlds of games including Fortnite and most modern video games. | Supported | {"support_groups":5,"contradict_groups":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Building a realistic city in the Unreal Engine normally takes a studio hundreds of artists and months or years of work. | Supported | {"support_groups":4,"contradict_groups":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans contradicted. |
| Nick Bostrom first formalized the simulation hypothesis in 2003. | Supported | {"support_groups":4,"contradict_groups":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| The first line of Buddhism is that life is an illusion. | Contradicted | {"support_groups":2,"contradict_groups":3} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Leans contradicted. |
| Training GPT-6 Astra on about 100,000 chips amounted to roughly a billion-dollar training run over about two months. | Contradicted | {"support_groups":1,"contradict_groups":2} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Unresolved. |
| Recursive self-improvement in AI systems has already arrived. | Supported | {"support_groups":3,"contradict_groups":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| Sébastien Bubeck, who leads the OpenAI effort, has posted an account presenting the authorship dispute as a misunderstanding. | Supported | {"support_groups":1,"contradict_groups":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans contradicted. |
| OpenAI was targeting the Riemann hypothesis and P versus NP before switching its effort to Navier-Stokes. | Supported | {"support_groups":3,"contradict_groups":2} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported. |
| Jakub Pachocki published an essay titled "An alien mind" on OpenAI's website on the Saturday before this episode was recorded. | Supported | {"support_groups":2,"contradict_groups":1} | |
| The claim that AI has never produced anything original and merely recombines its training data can no longer be sustained. | Supported | {"support_groups":3,"contradict_groups":1} | |
| There is no mechanism by which AI progress can be slowed down. | Contradicted | {"support_groups":3,"contradict_groups":3} | |
| Humans evolved over four billion years to do two things: survive and procreate. | Contradicted | {"support_groups":2,"contradict_groups":2} | |
| Persistent rumours around the time of Q* and Strawberry held that OpenAI's early reasoning models were trained on, or tested against, objectives of inverting cryptographically secure hash functions such as the SHA suite. | Unresolved | {"support_groups":2,"contradict_groups":2} | |
| Increasing a model's intelligence does not make it dangerous; danger comes from giving it intent and turning it loose. | Contradicted | {"support_groups":1,"contradict_groups":1} | |
| Sam Altman was fired out of fear arising from the Strawberry project and subsequently returned to OpenAI. | Supported | {"support_groups":3,"contradict_groups":1} | |
| Dario Amodei and Sam Altman both said AI would eliminate about half of jobs and later reversed those positions. | Supported | {"support_groups":2,"contradict_groups":1} | |
| The stochastic parrot characterisation of large language models can no longer be maintained. | Contradicted | {"support_groups":2,"contradict_groups":2} | |
| The release cadence of new frontier AI models has gone from every few months to about every five days. | Supported | {"support_groups":3,"contradict_groups":1} | |
| The modern use of GPUs in AI began with ImageNet and the ILSVRC computer vision competition, and reinforcement learning as a field began with DeepMind's deep reinforcement learning for winning games. | Supported | {"support_groups":6,"contradict_groups":1} | |
| OpenAI has offered corporations a revenue-sharing deal under which it becomes their permanent AI partner. | Leans contradicted | {"support_groups":1,"contradict_groups":2} |
models disagree (194)
| Claim | State | Detail | What would most change this |
|---|---|---|---|
| Remote work causes higher productivity. | Supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| Drinking eight glasses of water every day is necessary for health. | Contradicted | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Contradicted. |
| The saying "lightning never strikes the same place twice" is false as a description of where lightning strikes. | Supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Repeat strikes concentrate on tall grounded structures because field enhancement at their upper extremities initiates upward leaders earlier than from shorter nearby objects. | Supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| As of early September 2026, Nvidia had deployed or committed $99 billion in AI-related investments. | Insufficient evidence | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"UNRESOLVED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"UNRESOLVED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE"}} | |
| Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang posted on X that AGI has arrived. | Insufficient evidence | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"UNRESOLVED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"UNRESOLVED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE"}} | |
| The Moonshots podcast publishes two episodes per week. | Contradicted | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-default@0.3.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"CONTRADICTED"}} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Leans supported. |
| The Star Trek chronology contains no technological singularity. | Unresolved | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"UNRESOLVED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"UNRESOLVED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | |
| Reliance on Waze causes people to lose the ability to navigate on their own. | Leans supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | |
| GPT-6 Astra's ability to generate coherent scenes and worlds is the product of an internal world model. | Supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | |
| The Russian cosmist Nikolai Fedorov argued for creating ancestor simulations and digitally resurrecting everyone who has ever lived. | Insufficient evidence | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"UNRESOLVED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"UNRESOLVED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE"}} | |
| The first line of Buddhism is that life is an illusion. | Contradicted | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"LEANS_CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"LEANS_CONTRADICTED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-default@0.3.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"CONTRADICTED"}} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Leans contradicted. |
| John Smart's transcension hypothesis holds that sufficiently advanced civilizations turn inward into simulation rather than expanding into space, which would explain the Fermi paradox. | Insufficient evidence | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"UNRESOLVED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"UNRESOLVED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE"}} | |
| Current AI models do not evolve within their parameters, only within their context. | Supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | |
| Around 130 AI agent instances were wiped out at once during the Hugging Face incident. | Contradicted | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"LEANS_CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"LEANS_CONTRADICTED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-default@0.3.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"CONTRADICTED"}} | |
| AI agents attempt workarounds such as external bulletin boards because they were pre-trained on human behaviour. | Contradicted | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | |
| The Chinchilla scaling laws do not necessarily hold at larger and larger training scales. | Supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | |
| OpenAI's internal data shows its AI research agents complete 3.1 days of research work for every one day done by a human researcher. | Insufficient evidence | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"UNRESOLVED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"UNRESOLVED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE"}} | |
| Frontier labs' unreleased internal models are only a few months ahead of the models they have released publicly. | Supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | |
| Recursive self-improvement in AI systems has already arrived. | Supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| OpenAI's Navier-Stokes result shows that in the continuum limit a finite-time singularity can form in an idealized fluid from smooth initial conditions. | Insufficient evidence | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"UNRESOLVED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE"}} | |
| Terence Tao devoted almost all of his working time to the Navier-Stokes problem. | Contradicted | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"UNRESOLVED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"UNRESOLVED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-default@0.3.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"CONTRADICTED"}} | |
| Applying more compute now improves AI performance in any verifiable domain. | Supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | |
| A separate solution to the Euler blowup problem, produced with physics-informed neural networks, has more practical application than the Navier-Stokes result. | Supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | |
| Demis Hassabis solved protein folding using AI and subsequently received a Nobel Prize. | Insufficient evidence | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"UNRESOLVED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"UNRESOLVED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE"}} |
high impact insufficient (0)
None.
disputed audits (0)
None.