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Claim

In a Swedish nationwide prospective population-based study of 181 children with acute leukemia, a three-pronged diagnostic strategy identified pathogenic germline alterations in 9 patients, an overall diagnostic yield of 5.0%.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 14418 · qualifiers {"population":"Children with acute leukemia enrolled across Sweden between 17 December 2021 and 30 April 2024.","denominator":"181 enrolled children with acute leukemia."}

30 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a comma-separated series may list several propositions

Referenced 125 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 77, shared 46. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Medicine · 1efd24fe Biology · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9963 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

1 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted

3 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 4 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:017190ed-a0d6-8db6-969f-887814af8636

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from nature.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The results passage reports nine diagnoses among 181 patients, yielding 5.0% overall. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt reports 181 children and nine patients with pathogenic germline alterations, but does not state the 5.0% overall yield.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9963 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 4 sources, 3 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:6318ed932cdd3e7efcc32e5bd4b7b8407d889b0910669c6ca1b6cfa9f3b2bac9

Last changed at entry seq 24992; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
c550059e support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
5b1e305f support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 2.000000 2.000000
a0b2967a support relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.540000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept c550059e)
903be831 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 5.600000 (the counted weights) = 5.600000 → probability 0.9963

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9805 to 0.9993, a spread of 0.0188.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
08f49a71c550059e

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

1 check by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedno
opposing search doneno
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyesc550059e, 5b1e305f, a0b2967a, 903be831

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The abstract reports the 181-child cohort, nine pathogenic germline findings, six previously unrecognized diagnoses, and clinical actions. 86aab2a2

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 08f49a71

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:017190ed-a0d6-8db6-969f-887814af8636

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
14418APPENDED
14419ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
14430LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
14432LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
21497LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
24991TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "017190ed-a0d6-8db6-969f-887814af8636",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "67abe319-72f9-8197-b062-19bcc550059e",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "ddcefa8e-7386-8856-94cc-f3d686aab2a2",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "7b74ad0e-cbfd-8aee-a6bd-73f95b1e305f",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "1637149b-cdc8-83d2-b088-84eddc731918",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "2.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "67abe319-72f9-8197-b062-19bcc550059e",
      "link": "ada1c728-b11e-8afe-9dc9-b095a0b2967a",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "dc1e948d-3839-83ca-aa7f-3b9d08f49a71",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.540000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "c0ca99d5-5cce-854e-b90e-278c903be831",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "7f11bbab-2766-8af4-906d-de82062fde48",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0188",
    "permissive": "0.9993",
    "conservative": "0.9805"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9963",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "5.600000",
  "snapshot_seq": 24992,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 3,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "67abe319-72f9-8197-b062-19bcc550059e",
        "7b74ad0e-cbfd-8aee-a6bd-73f95b1e305f",
        "ada1c728-b11e-8afe-9dc9-b095a0b2967a",
        "c0ca99d5-5cce-854e-b90e-278c903be831"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "5.600000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 4
}