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Claim

In the Uganda trial, phone-call tutorials increased learning by 1.193 operation levels and increased the share reaching the highest proficiency level by 34.4 percentage points.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 19401

a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 92 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 65, shared 26. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Education · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.8808 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 1 by the author only

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 4 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:11f97c0c-199f-86e8-a27f-8a07ba6017b5

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.Every quoted passage was confirmed on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The primary study reports Uganda’s operation-level and proficiency gains. weight 2.000000 evidence

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

Hide calculation

0.8808 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 4 sources, 1 independent lineage

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:48b4af5bc15e89bbaa103f4162b1f645508c391c9b563f5a9df1e6a8b5a1f994

Last changed at entry seq 25972; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
aeeca017 qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (non directional)
2b12b45b support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 2.000000 2.000000
5438c7f9 qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (non directional)
83554f7a qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (non directional)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 2.000000 (the counted weights) = 2.000000 → probability 0.8808

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.8022 to 0.9309, a spread of 0.1287.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedno
opposing search doneno
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyesaeeca017, 2b12b45b, 5438c7f9, 83554f7a

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The primary study reports Uganda’s operation-level and proficiency gains. aebd381c

Qualifier: The illustrative proficiency comparison is grade 4 division performance, with baseline and endline control/treatment context during school closures. e693b2ff

Qualifier: The passage directly reports Uganda gains of 1.193 operation levels and 34.4 percentage points at the highest proficiency level, but does not name phone-call tutorials. 8def9be3

Qualifier: The reported 1.193 operation-level and 34.4-point gains are Uganda-specific; the proficiency figure is an absolute percentage-point result for the highest level. e4aa0794

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:11f97c0c-199f-86e8-a27f-8a07ba6017b5

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
19401APPENDED
19402ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
19415LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
24774TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
25971TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "11f97c0c-199f-86e8-a27f-8a07ba6017b5",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "6dd95b87-3059-8462-8495-f483aeeca017",
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      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
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      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
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      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "79c7d70e-0d62-8324-92a2-13792b12b45b",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
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      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
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      "link": "cae4b813-1791-8f91-a8d4-6b435438c7f9",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
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    {
      "link": "e3c9cc36-c9ab-8cf7-a2e6-eb9983554f7a",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
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      "relevance": "DIRECT",
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  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
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    "permissive": "0.9309",
    "conservative": "0.8022"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8808",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "2.000000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25972,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
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        "79c7d70e-0d62-8324-92a2-13792b12b45b",
        "cae4b813-1791-8f91-a8d4-6b435438c7f9",
        "e3c9cc36-c9ab-8cf7-a2e6-eb9983554f7a"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "2.000000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 4
}