Claim

In simulation, SAIL increased average robot trajectory success from 25% with one generated trajectory to 73% when testing and refining up to 45 candidates, without updating model weights.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 23730

28 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluablea comma-separated series may list several propositions

Referenced 161 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 102, shared 57. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

AI · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9781 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 2 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:24780cd7-f5a5-8b71-ac1b-e81c8021099f

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.Every quoted passage was confirmed on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The report gives 25% single-generation success and 73% success after testing up to 45 candidates without weight updates. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The report gives 25% single-generation success and 73% success after testing up to 45 candidates without weight updates.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9781 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 3 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:b7d6caedf5bab36e0446ee1e49031eebe09fc69e32d2660ce920af95779ff360

Last changed at entry seq 26002; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
d07e5c0e support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
507a6596 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	2.000000
b3dffceb support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 507a6596)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 3.800000 (the counted weights) = 3.800000 → probability 0.9781

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9346 to 0.9929, a spread of 0.0583.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“In simulation, SAIL increased average robot trajectory success from 25% with one generated trajectory to 73% when testing and refining up to 45 candidates,...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“SAIL uses inference-time search to improve simulated robot trajectory success without updating model weights, and it succeeded in five of six physical trials.” · 2 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The report gives 25% single-generation success and 73% success after testing up to 45 candidates without weight updates.

From SAIL improves robot trajectory generation success from 25% to 73% through test-time scaling Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The report gives 25% single-generation success and 73% success after testing up to 45 candidates without weight updates.

From SAIL improves robot trajectory generation success from 25% to 73% through test-time scaling Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The official SAIL page reports average simulated success rising from 25% to 73% across six tasks at a 45-candidate budget.

From SAIL: Test-Time Scaling through Iterative Refinement for VLMs as Robot Trajectory Generators Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
2a695e40		507a6596

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	d07e5c0e

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The official SAIL page reports average simulated success rising from 25% to 73% across six tasks at a 45-candidate budget. 76890b6c

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 2a695e40

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. d6674d7a

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:24780cd7-f5a5-8b71-ac1b-e81c8021099f

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
23730	APPENDED
23731	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
23742	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
23746	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
23786	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "24780cd7-f5a5-8b71-ac1b-e81c8021099f",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "35a86688-ebe6-8f67-953a-f02ed07e5c0e",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "514cb100-2609-8d93-9b4d-9c7876890b6c",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
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      "link": "c83d1181-32a9-8a35-8db1-3383507a6596",
      "group": null,
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      "evidence": "cbcd005d-4385-8ad4-a5ce-26c62a695e40",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "2.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "c83d1181-32a9-8a35-8db1-3383507a6596",
      "link": "cf4ffda1-7cfb-812c-a2ac-6612b3dffceb",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "cbcd005d-4385-8ad4-a5ce-26c62a695e40",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0583",
    "permissive": "0.9929",
    "conservative": "0.9346"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9781",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "3.800000",
  "snapshot_seq": 26002,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "35a86688-ebe6-8f67-953a-f02ed07e5c0e"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "3.800000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 2
}