Claim

Under the CMIP5-RCP2.6 climate-change scenario, the study forecast metabolic-rate increases of up to 26.6% in aquatic invertebrates and 43.9% in terrestrial invertebrates.

Type FORECAST · truth-evaluable: no (UNRESOLVED_FORECAST) · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 14370 · qualifiers {"baseline":"Percent increases are relative to the study's modeled baseline.","sampling":"Forecasts derive from the study's assembled meta-analytic dataset and model.","time_range":"Scenario forecast horizon is the horizon modeled by the study; the abstract does not specify it."}

a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 57 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 29, shared 26. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Science · 1efd24fe Biology · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Not assessed

1 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted

0 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability n/a

This is a forecast that has not resolved yet.

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:2c343430-55d5-8391-bb55-3d71b1ffe782

Not yet independently audited.Every quoted passage was confirmed on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

Hide calculation

No probability. This is a forecast that has not resolved yet.

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:b587d4d8a7f983326efb1608fa6683939cac61c07d6f932140cc884dc41472fd

Last changed at entry seq 25768; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
765bbb61 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	— (not applicable)
944e7302 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	— (not applicable)
32940f56 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MODEL_OUTPUT 0.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	— (not applicable)

prior — → log-odds —

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“Under the CMIP5-RCP2.6 climate-change scenario, the study forecast metabolic-rate increases of up to 26.6% in aquatic invertebrates and 43.9% in terrestrial...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“A 2026 Nature Communications global meta-analysis found lower thermal metabolic responses in aquatic than terrestrial invertebrates and forecast...” · 2 claims · 28 September 2026

Evidence for

The abstract directly reports the ecosystem comparison and scenario-specific forecast maxima.

From Global meta-analysis of metabolic responses to climate change in aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Direct forecast values and scenario in the abstract.
The excerpt directly reports CMIP5-RCP2.6 forecast maxima of 26.6% for aquatic and 43.9% for terrestrial invertebrates.

From Global meta-analysis of metabolic responses to climate change in aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The paper forecasts maximum metabolic-rate increases of 26.6% for aquatic and 43.9% for terrestrial invertebrates under CMIP5-RCP2.6.

From Global meta-analysis of metabolic responses to climate change in aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

This forecast is not a checkable present fact, but the primary source directly documents what the study forecast.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

1 check by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	765bbb61, 944e7302, 32940f56

Summary

Not assessed. This is a forecast that has not resolved yet. coverage:2c343430-55d5-8391-bb55-3d71b1ffe782

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:2c343430-55d5-8391-bb55-3d71b1ffe782

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
14370	APPENDED
14371	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
14378	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
14689	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
20513	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "review_checklist": {
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  "contradict_groups": 0,
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