Claim

In the NHS-Galleri trial's evaluable intervention participants across three annual rounds, the multi-cancer early-detection test had 99.50–99.60% specificity and 26.7–37.2% episode sensitivity for all cancers; these performance analyses were descriptive and the trial's primary late-stage-cancer endpoint was not met.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 16351

39 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 142 times: checked 3, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 88, shared 51. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Public health · 1efd24fe Medicine · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9925 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

3 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 5 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:4150aa2f-d166-86ed-bd0c-3ecf77512f4e

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from biodaily.org and nature.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The trial reports high specificity, substantially lower episode sensitivity, descriptive performance analyses, and a missed primary late-stage-cancer endpoint. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The passage directly reports the specificity, episode sensitivity, descriptive-analysis caveat, and missed primary endpoint.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9925 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 5 sources, 3 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:636d67d2334b9d616720c8c28d4081f2d55d91f737e12ea5c9b1d6b18646326d

Last changed at entry seq 17655; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
5eb301f6 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	0.000000 (non directional)
d20e59bd support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
c025b18d support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept f5177b43)
f4b1c025 support	relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.080000	1.080000
f5177b43 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	2.000000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 4.880000 (the counted weights) = 4.880000 → probability 0.9925

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9682 to 0.9982, a spread of 0.0300.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“In the NHS-Galleri trial's evaluable intervention participants across three annual rounds, the multi-cancer early-detection test had 99.50–99.60% specificity...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“In the NHS-Galleri trial's evaluable intervention participants across three annual rounds, the multi-cancer early-detection test had 99.50–99.60% specificity...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“In the NHS-Galleri trial's evaluable intervention participants across three annual rounds, the multi-cancer early-detection test had 99.50–99.60% specificity...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The trial reports high specificity, substantially lower episode sensitivity, descriptive performance analyses, and a missed primary late-stage-cancer endpoint.

From Performance of a multi-cancer early detection test in the randomized controlled NHS-Galleri trial Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The passage directly reports the specificity, episode sensitivity, descriptive-analysis caveat, and missed primary endpoint.

From Performance of a multi-cancer early detection test in the randomized controlled NHS-Galleri trial Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
Independent reporting repeats the trial's high specificity, low episode-sensitivity range, and failure to reduce late-stage cancers.

From The Galleri blood test found 937 cancers in the NHS trial but missed most of the rest Read 2026-09-29 Relevance STRONG Steps 0 Counted

Independent secondary analysis of the Nature Medicine trial; it also emphasizes that performance is not equivalent to clinical benefit.
The primary Nature Medicine report directly gives the three-round specificity and all-cancer episode-sensitivity ranges in the claim.

From Performance of a multi-cancer early detection test in the randomized controlled NHS-Galleri trial Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Primary randomized controlled NHS-Galleri trial report; the claim also preserves the limitation that the primary late-stage endpoint was not met.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

The reported episode sensitivity is round-specific and defined over a 12-month primary-cancer follow-up window, not absolute sensitivity.

From Performance of a multi-cancer early detection test in the randomized controlled NHS-Galleri trial Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Adds denominator, jurisdiction, round-specific follow-up, and episode-sensitivity definition.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
6b65a56b		f5177b43

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	5eb301f6, d20e59bd, c025b18d, f5177b43

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The primary Nature Medicine report directly gives the three-round specificity and all-cancer episode-sensitivity ranges in the claim. 1e58fee3

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 6b65a56b

Qualifier: The reported episode sensitivity is round-specific and defined over a 12-month primary-cancer follow-up window, not absolute sensitivity. 8575cad7

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. 7035a762

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:4150aa2f-d166-86ed-bd0c-3ecf77512f4e

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
16351	APPENDED
16352	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
16357	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
16397	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
16441	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
16853	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
17654	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "4150aa2f-d166-86ed-bd0c-3ecf77512f4e",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "3690ae4a-e1af-8679-9bf0-11895eb301f6",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "479273b2-cd9d-8b64-ac63-16468575cad7",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "724ad0a3-d33b-8f0b-b0d2-a941d20e59bd",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "4a4b0ab6-532c-8141-a07c-050b1e58fee3",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "c18ab352-aa4c-8255-93d3-4f4af5177b43",
      "link": "75fb75f4-3d01-8184-aa60-568fc025b18d",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "744e211b-c2b1-8b53-b3f7-706f6b65a56b",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "c0e86d40-acb8-8e34-9bdd-67c9f4b1c025",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "ff46882b-4c30-8785-9627-6f5a9905fc54",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.080000",
      "relevance": "STRONG",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.080000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "c18ab352-aa4c-8255-93d3-4f4af5177b43",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "b7cc5346-b84c-810e-8e29-a7f3cdcf4924",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "2.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0300",
    "permissive": "0.9982",
    "conservative": "0.9682"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9925",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "4.880000",
  "snapshot_seq": 17655,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 3,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "3690ae4a-e1af-8679-9bf0-11895eb301f6",
        "724ad0a3-d33b-8f0b-b0d2-a941d20e59bd",
        "75fb75f4-3d01-8184-aa60-568fc025b18d",
        "c18ab352-aa4c-8255-93d3-4f4af5177b43"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "4.880000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 5
}