Claim

In the reported Bayesian hybrid-accretion model, bulk silicate Mars reflected 27 ± 5% pebble-accreted material and 73 ± 5% Vesta-like planetesimal material.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 15289 · qualifiers {"population":"Bulk silicate Mars in the reported model","denominator":"Modelled material contribution to bulk silicate Mars"}

a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 138 times: checked 3, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 85, shared 50. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Astronomy and space · 1efd24fe Chemistry · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9955 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

3 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 5 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:48132c84-4677-81c6-9759-f3a9fa1fd1e0

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from nature.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The Nature Astronomy abstract directly reports the Mars model’s 27 ± 5% pebble-accreted and 73 ± 5% Vesta-like planetesimal fractions. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt directly reports 27 ± 5% pebble-accreted material and 73 ± 5% Vesta-like planetesimals for Mars.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9955 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 5 sources, 3 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:d379a8ce48de38c0a76fc49e7c61ec488af206e96afa27a029ab1cad74887033

Last changed at entry seq 15675; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
c7b51b24 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
1422e850 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MODEL_OUTPUT 0.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000
efb4309f support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MODEL_OUTPUT 0.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 1422e850)
d78f922c support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
aa42f15c support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 5.400000 (the counted weights) = 5.400000 → probability 0.9955

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9777 to 0.9991, a spread of 0.0214.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“In the reported Bayesian hybrid-accretion model, bulk silicate Mars reflected 27 ± 5% pebble-accreted material and 73 ± 5% Vesta-like planetesimal material.” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“In the reported Bayesian hybrid-accretion model, bulk silicate Mars reflected 27 ± 5% pebble-accreted material and 73 ± 5% Vesta-like planetesimal material.” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“A Bayesian hybrid-accretion model best reproduced bulk silicate Earth with at least 75% pebble-accreted protoplanet material and up to 25% Vesta-like...” · 2 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The summary reports 27 ± 5% pebble-accreted and 73 ± 5% Vesta-like planetesimal material for bulk silicate Mars.

From Volatile Depletion In Rocky Planets As A Chemical Fingerprint Of Hybrid Accretion Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The secondary article directly reproduces the model fractions.
The excerpt directly reports 27 ± 5% pebble-accreted material and 73 ± 5% Vesta-like planetesimals for Mars.

From Volatile Depletion In Rocky Planets As A Chemical Fingerprint Of Hybrid Accretion Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The passage explicitly states the Mars model fractions and uncertainties.
The Nature Astronomy abstract directly reports the Mars model’s 27 ± 5% pebble-accreted and 73 ± 5% Vesta-like planetesimal fractions.

From Volatile depletion in rocky planets as a chemical fingerprint of hybrid accretion Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Primary article abstract corroborates the secondary summary.
The paper reports 27 ± 5% pebble-accreted and 73 ± 5% Vesta-like planetesimal material for bulk silicate Mars.

From Volatile depletion in rocky planets as a chemical fingerprint of hybrid accretion Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The primary research abstract directly states both Mars contribution estimates and their uncertainties.
The primary Nature Astronomy study reports the Mars composition split as a Bayesian reference-model estimate with stated uncertainties.

From Volatile depletion in rocky planets as a chemical fingerprint of hybrid accretion Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Direct primary support, while the wording preserves that these are model-based compositional estimates rather than direct sampling of Mars's building blocks.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
cdd3272e		1422e850

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	c7b51b24, d78f922c, aa42f15c

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The Nature Astronomy abstract directly reports the Mars model’s 27 ± 5% pebble-accreted and 73 ± 5% Vesta-like planetesimal fractions. db28cf53

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. cdd3272e

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. f0ec5036

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:48132c84-4677-81c6-9759-f3a9fa1fd1e0

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
15289	APPENDED
15290	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
15299	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
15304	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
15336	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
15501	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
15674	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "contested": false,
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