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Claim

In the Nworie River assessment, gamma-chlordane had the highest detected concentration at 0.1704 mg/L, was detected at more than 60% of sampling sites above Federal Ministry of Environment limits, and Sites 4 and 5 were dual microplastic/OCP contamination hotspots.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 17390 · qualifiers {"method":"GC-FID","location":"Nworie River, Southeastern Nigeria","threshold":"Federal Ministry of Environment limits","comparison":"gamma-chlordane highest; Lindane lowest at 0.0007 mg/L","source_edition":"b5f82b71-9906-856b-aba7-44e14077708e"}

39 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluablea comma-separated series may list several propositions

Referenced 75 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 49, shared 24. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Environment · 1efd24fe Chemistry · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9781 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:63d56d69-07d7-8e30-9c17-652d9f48a620

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The study reports gamma-chlordane concentration, detection frequency above limits, and dual contamination hotspots. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The passage directly reports gamma-chlordane concentration, frequency above regulatory limits, and Sites 4 and 5 as dual hotspots.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9781 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 3 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:c8a13707272dbe2bbf1131c775fa5cb9e282fce3d3cfc8c6253cf838e2141e97

Last changed at entry seq 17495; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
b7c15069 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 2.000000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept b8368251)
b8368251 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 2.000000 2.000000
8aef0f79 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 3.800000 (the counted weights) = 3.800000 → probability 0.9781

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9346 to 0.9929, a spread of 0.0583.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
df1c8cd1b8368251

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedno
opposing search doneno
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyesb7c15069, b8368251, 8aef0f79

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The study reports gamma-chlordane concentration, detection frequency above limits, and dual contamination hotspots. 0ef3d465

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. df1c8cd1

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. 50dc06f9

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:63d56d69-07d7-8e30-9c17-652d9f48a620

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
17390APPENDED
17391ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
17400LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
17420TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
17494LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "63d56d69-07d7-8e30-9c17-652d9f48a620",
  "links": [
    {
      "kept": "2e46ca00-56c0-8fdc-836f-b005b8368251",
      "link": "221adbc2-79ed-803f-bee2-4ff4b7c15069",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "a7eea226-2958-8c3b-b9a3-0f98df1c8cd1",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "2e46ca00-56c0-8fdc-836f-b005b8368251",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "a313aee9-096b-8bbc-b4ef-427a0ef3d465",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "2.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "af235bc3-d7a5-86ed-ae5d-90b78aef0f79",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "e1698f13-4ce8-83a4-bbf4-c66cac2eda7b",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0583",
    "permissive": "0.9929",
    "conservative": "0.9346"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9781",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "3.800000",
  "snapshot_seq": 17495,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "221adbc2-79ed-803f-bee2-4ff4b7c15069",
        "2e46ca00-56c0-8fdc-836f-b005b8368251",
        "af235bc3-d7a5-86ed-ae5d-90b78aef0f79"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "3.800000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}