Claim

Across 15 globally analyzed subduction zones, interface roughness parameters measured at 1–10 km scales were unrelated to a proxy for maximum earthquake magnitude and to geodetically constrained interface coupling.

Type COMPARATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 18316 · qualifiers {"population":"Fifteen global subduction zones.","denominator":"Roughness parameters derived from seismic reflection profiles at 1–10 km scales."}

29 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 128 times: checked 3, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 78, shared 47. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Earth science · 1efd24fe Environment · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9911 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 1 by the author only

3 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 7 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:6a64f95c-cdd7-8678-855c-57c6b024c6f4

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from scienmag.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The abstract reports no roughness relationship with maximum magnitude or coupling across 15 subduction zones at 1–10 km scales. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt directly reports no roughness relationship with magnitude or coupling across 15 zones at 1–10 km scales.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9911 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 7 sources, 3 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:3f4c95c6472bd0414f13217d97d7ace3fb722c045582f13bdf8c7d60a69e2285

Last changed at entry seq 25854; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
4152b496 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	0.000000 (non directional)
89131dfd qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	0.000000 (non directional)
c1350a2e support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
43ea21bc qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	0.000000 (non directional)
354abd58 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	2.000000
8734d102 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 354abd58)
76ebc503 support	relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.918000	0.918000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 4.718000 (the counted weights) = 4.718000 → probability 0.9911

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9645 to 0.9978, a spread of 0.0333.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“Across 15 globally analyzed subduction zones, interface roughness parameters measured at 1–10 km scales were unrelated to a proxy for maximum earthquake...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“Across 15 globally analyzed subduction zones, interface roughness parameters measured at 1–10 km scales were unrelated to a proxy for maximum earthquake...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“A global analysis of 15 subduction zones found interface roughness unrelated to maximum earthquake magnitude or coupling, while interface coupling was...” · 2 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The abstract reports no roughness relationship with maximum magnitude or coupling across 15 subduction zones at 1–10 km scales.

From Maximum earthquake magnitude unlikely to be controlled by subduction interface roughness Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The secondary report describes the Nature Geoscience study as finding that maximum subduction-zone earthquake magnitude is unlikely to be controlled by interface roughness and that the expected roughness-to-magnitude relationship dissolves under uniform global measurement.

From Fault Roughness May Not Set the Ceiling for Great Earthquakes Read 2026-09-29 Relevance STRONG Steps 1 Counted

Secondary coverage of the same Nature Geoscience study; corroborating report, not an independent research lineage.
The primary study reports that interface roughness up to 10 km was not a primary control on maximum earthquake potential.

From Maximum earthquake magnitude unlikely to be controlled by subduction interface roughness Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Independent primary source passage.
The excerpt directly reports no roughness relationship with magnitude or coupling across 15 zones at 1–10 km scales.

From Maximum earthquake magnitude unlikely to be controlled by subduction interface roughness Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

The analysis covers 35 seismic profiles at 15 margins and measures direct plate-interface roughness at 1–10 km length scales.

From Maximum earthquake magnitude unlikely to be controlled by subduction interface roughness Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Specifies the 35-profile/15-margin sample and measurement scale.
The earthquake-magnitude and coupling comparisons use maximum values within a 100-km along-strike by 10–50-km depth window around each profile.

From Maximum earthquake magnitude unlikely to be controlled by subduction interface roughness Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Defines the spatial window used for the maximum-magnitude proxy and coupling comparison.
The global conclusion is based on a necessarily limited, mostly 2D sample and treats each profile as representative of its region; it is not a complete 3D census of all global subduction interfaces.

From Maximum earthquake magnitude unlikely to be controlled by subduction interface roughness Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Records the sparse 2D sampling and representative-profile assumption.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
3ffbeb7f		354abd58

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	4152b496, 89131dfd, c1350a2e, 43ea21bc, 354abd58, 8734d102

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The primary study reports that interface roughness up to 10 km was not a primary control on maximum earthquake potential. 41a15738

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 3ffbeb7f

Qualifier: The analysis covers 35 seismic profiles at 15 margins and measures direct plate-interface roughness at 1–10 km length scales. 93d823a0

Qualifier: The earthquake-magnitude and coupling comparisons use maximum values within a 100-km along-strike by 10–50-km depth window around each profile. 5f6cbd4a

Qualifier: The global conclusion is based on a necessarily limited, mostly 2D sample and treats each profile as representative of its region; it is not a complete 3D census of all global subduction interfaces. a12ce8fb

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:6a64f95c-cdd7-8678-855c-57c6b024c6f4

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
18316	APPENDED
18317	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
18328	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
18402	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
19686	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24701	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
25853	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "6a64f95c-cdd7-8678-855c-57c6b024c6f4",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "11ad92ef-83fa-88b5-a037-cb9e4152b496",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "c8b31a5b-018f-8b22-b281-de4193d823a0",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "2a08b127-45f5-844a-a5b0-ad3789131dfd",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "7615eab3-7516-8058-b91a-81065f6cbd4a",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "3e5ea7fb-9ee7-8528-901d-6665c1350a2e",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "4a5ea9b0-0520-8dd4-b724-3f3141a15738",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "7b94572f-631a-8630-848e-a85e43ea21bc",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "518aa8f2-3046-86ec-9fd8-9f67a12ce8fb",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "7ed833df-525a-8cf0-baf0-3e2f354abd58",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "4e912530-2638-849f-991c-aff48c16b528",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "2.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "7ed833df-525a-8cf0-baf0-3e2f354abd58",
      "link": "a480d1ef-a2a3-8470-8356-5ec58734d102",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "e703a630-211b-835c-a547-dec23ffbeb7f",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "f9580e42-1e24-8d8c-b0b1-aa0e76ebc503",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "988303e5-1080-8b94-85a1-5dc37708adc1",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.918000",
      "relevance": "STRONG",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.918000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0333",
    "permissive": "0.9978",
    "conservative": "0.9645"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "COMPARATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9911",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "4.718000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25854,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 3,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "11ad92ef-83fa-88b5-a037-cb9e4152b496",
        "2a08b127-45f5-844a-a5b0-ad3789131dfd",
        "3e5ea7fb-9ee7-8528-901d-6665c1350a2e",
        "7b94572f-631a-8630-848e-a85e43ea21bc",
        "7ed833df-525a-8cf0-baf0-3e2f354abd58",
        "a480d1ef-a2a3-8470-8356-5ec58734d102"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "4.718000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 7
}