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Claim

Mice vaccinated with the heat-stored MIT RNA-LNP formulation showed equivalent immune responses to mice receiving a comparable Moderna-like RNA-LNP formulation.

Type COMPARATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 13459 · qualifiers {"population":"Mice; animal study, not a human clinical trial."}

Referenced 125 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 1, viewed 84, shared 38. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Vaccines · 1efd24fe Medicine · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9561 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 4 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:72b71502-daf2-8b24-97c9-6e4d7750602a

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from news.mit.edu was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: MIT reports one-year room-temperature or two-month 98°F storage stability and equivalent immune responses in mice after storage. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt directly states that mice receiving the heat-stored particles showed equivalent immune responses to mice receiving LNPs similar to the original Moderna formulation.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.

Hide calculation

0.9561 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 4 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:73bdf0c98b094ced1c72369c040e6dde0f41c87df0799ab1acc0f03e9315672f

Last changed at entry seq 13977; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
cc3a5a0d support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 54589900)
08d3dee5 qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (non directional)
54589900 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 2.000000 2.000000
43b66de0 support relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.080000 1.080000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 3.080000 (the counted weights) = 3.080000 → probability 0.9561

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.8962 to 0.9821, a spread of 0.0859.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
fdd0701554589900

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedno
opposing search doneno
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyescc3a5a0d, 08d3dee5, 54589900, 43b66de0

Summary

Supported. The main support is: MIT reports one-year room-temperature or two-month 98°F storage stability and equivalent immune responses in mice after storage. 04d99f90

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. fdd07015

Qualifier: The equivalence result is limited to mice after storage at room temperature for one year or 98°F for two months. d3946598

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. c897ce29

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:72b71502-daf2-8b24-97c9-6e4d7750602a

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
13459APPENDED
13460ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
13467LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
13486LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
13532TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
13540TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "72b71502-daf2-8b24-97c9-6e4d7750602a",
  "links": [
    {
      "kept": "c751b30b-1add-8c90-8c98-c1bc54589900",
      "link": "8e5634c2-e450-81a8-ba7c-ad08cc3a5a0d",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "d10d1dd4-918f-8118-ad6c-52ddfdd07015",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "a1839d0e-e32f-890e-9ccb-a3d108d3dee5",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "28f8a8e8-05d0-84e9-b3ef-36ead3946598",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
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      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "c751b30b-1add-8c90-8c98-c1bc54589900",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "24739d50-284e-85ca-9806-c9e604d99f90",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "2.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "f55c3b1a-24c1-8197-abc0-0b2343b66de0",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "441d6124-3a68-8047-a039-30b3675070d0",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.080000",
      "relevance": "STRONG",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.080000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0859",
    "permissive": "0.9821",
    "conservative": "0.8962"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "COMPARATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9561",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "3.080000",
  "snapshot_seq": 13977,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "8e5634c2-e450-81a8-ba7c-ad08cc3a5a0d",
        "a1839d0e-e32f-890e-9ccb-a3d108d3dee5",
        "c751b30b-1add-8c90-8c98-c1bc54589900",
        "f55c3b1a-24c1-8197-abc0-0b2343b66de0"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "3.080000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 4
}