Claim

In a global analysis of 58,319 outbreak event records for 32 diseases, reporting declined by a median of 32% for each additional hour of travel time from a health facility.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 20049 · qualifiers {"population":"32 emerging infectious diseases and their georeferenced outbreak events","denominator":"median reporting change per additional hour of motorized travel time from a health facility"}

30 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a comma-separated series may list several propositions

Referenced 160 times: checked 3, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 118, shared 39. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Public health · 1efd24fe Medicine · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Insufficient evidence

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

0 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability n/a

Main unresolved issue: 5 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:8d8391a2-307b-8cea-b7f2-36aa69d789ce

Not yet independently audited.A quoted passage from nature.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Suppressed as dependent: The abstract reports 58,319 outbreak records across 32 diseases and a median 32% reporting decline per additional travel hour to healthcare.; The packet directly reports 58,319 records across 32 diseases and a median 32% reporting decline per additional travel hour.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Insufficient evidence to Supported.

Hide calculation

No probability. No counted evidence bears on this claim at this snapshot.

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:db7ab4c3870086211e5c3d1ae7220fbc6c2414723507ef2bdf4ad1a44477bf89

Last changed at entry seq 24321; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Counted as
92bec43f support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 98119ba9)
f06b6f38 support	relevance CONTEXT_ONLY 0.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 2 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 2 0.700000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000
c90e9c27 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 98119ba9)
98119ba9 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MODEL_OUTPUT 0.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000
fa33a2aa support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000

prior — → log-odds —

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“In a global analysis of 58,319 outbreak event records for 32 diseases, reporting declined by a median of 32% for each additional hour of travel time from a...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“In a global analysis of 58,319 outbreak event records for 32 diseases, reporting declined by a median of 32% for each additional hour of travel time from a...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“In a global analysis of 58,319 outbreak event records for 32 diseases, reporting declined by a median of 32% for each additional hour of travel time from a...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The analysis covered 58,319 outbreak records across 32 diseases and found a median 32% reporting decline per additional travel hour.

From The anthropogenic fingerprint on emerging infectious diseases Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The packet directly reports 58,319 records across 32 diseases and a median 32% reporting decline per additional travel hour.

From The anthropogenic fingerprint on emerging infectious diseases Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
An independent modeling and mobility study links low detection in high-risk areas to healthcare-access and travel-pattern mismatches, providing contextual support for detection bias.

From Accounting for a typology of travel behavior in modeling infectious disease transmission, detection, and community response Read 2026-09-29 Relevance CONTEXT_ONLY Steps 2 Counted

This study does not reproduce the 32% estimate; it independently supports the healthcare-access/detection mechanism behind the claim.
The primary paper directly supports the existing claim’s reported median decline in outbreak reporting with healthcare travel time.

From The anthropogenic fingerprint on emerging infectious diseases Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence added to the similar pre-existing claim rather than relying only on the newly worded duplicate.
The abstract reports 58,319 outbreak records across 32 diseases and a median 32% reporting decline per additional travel hour to healthcare.

From The anthropogenic fingerprint on emerging infectious diseases Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
055eaf13		98119ba9
acd8fadd		98119ba9

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	92bec43f, f06b6f38, c90e9c27, 98119ba9, fa33a2aa

Summary

Insufficient evidence. No counted evidence bears on this claim yet. coverage:8d8391a2-307b-8cea-b7f2-36aa69d789ce

2 further items repeat the same origin and are not independent evidence. 055eaf13acd8fadd

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 6b4013b8

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:8d8391a2-307b-8cea-b7f2-36aa69d789ce

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
20049	APPENDED
20050	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
20055	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
20057	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
20101	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
22479	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24320	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "contested": false,
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  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
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  "contradict_groups": 0,
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