Claim

The study estimates that anthropogenic disturbance affects 20.4 ± 3.4% of Europe’s wetland area, with 13.6 ± 3.0% classified as most disturbed.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 22717

Referenced 151 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 121, shared 28. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Environment · 1efd24fe Climate · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Leans supported

Score: 0.6128 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 7 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:94a1dbf9-ef1a-87a3-9928-ac1e47c958dc

Not yet independently audited.A quoted passage from nature.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The institutional release corroborates that roughly one fifth of European wetlands are highly affected by human activity and inland marshes are most disturbed. weight 0.459000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The supplied passage directly reports 20.4 ± 3.4% affected by anthropogenic disturbance and 13.6 ± 3.0% most disturbed.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Contradicted.

Hide calculation

0.6128 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Leans supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 7 sources, 1 independent lineage

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:44655dbe19fb79995d495135e1616ac7dcfcfe8648df57429faf832f3c8d85ff

Last changed at entry seq 24371; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
f09ad71a qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (non directional)
3e1d2c5a support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000
d12a4819 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (non directional)
11969a65 support	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.459000	0.459000
370615aa qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (non directional)
1d365563 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 900b045d)
900b045d support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 0.459000 (the counted weights) = 0.459000 → probability 0.6128

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.5796 to 0.6449, a spread of 0.0653.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“The study estimates that anthropogenic disturbance affects 20.4 ± 3.4% of Europe’s wetland area, with 13.6 ± 3.0% classified as most disturbed.” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“The Nature study quantified European wetland disturbance, potential carbon-storage differences, and scenario-based restoration needs:...” · 3 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The study estimates that 20.4 ± 3.4% of Europe’s wetland area is anthropogenically disturbed, including 13.6 ± 3.0% most disturbed.

From Highly fragmented European wetlands with uneven restoration needs Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The institutional release corroborates that roughly one fifth of European wetlands are highly affected by human activity and inland marshes are most disturbed.

From New study pinpoints europe’s most critical wetlands for climate action Read 2026-09-29 Relevance MODERATE Steps 1 Counted

The release rounds the primary estimate and does not reproduce its uncertainty interval.
The supplied passage directly reports 20.4 ± 3.4% affected by anthropogenic disturbance and 13.6 ± 3.0% most disturbed.

From Highly fragmented European wetlands with uneven restoration needs Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The excerpt exactly states both estimates and their uncertainties.
The primary Nature article reports that anthropogenic disturbance affects 20.4 ± 3.4% of Europe’s wetland area and classifies 13.6 ± 3.0% as most disturbed.

From Highly fragmented European wetlands with uneven restoration needs Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The source directly states both percentages and uncertainties.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

Disturbance was proxied from CLC2018 agricultural and urban classes plus distance to those features.

From Highly fragmented European wetlands with uneven restoration needs Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Clarifies how disturbance was operationalized.
The classification used overlap, a 150-m buffer, and all remaining mapped wetlands for three disturbance levels.

From Highly fragmented European wetlands with uneven restoration needs Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Clarifies the category thresholds.
The estimates cover 2018 natural and seminatural open wetlands and exclude historically lost, forested, and heavily drained wetlands.

From Highly fragmented European wetlands with uneven restoration needs Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Clarifies temporal and population denominator limits.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
36f5b511		900b045d

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

From	Relationship	To
ef84423f	NARROWS	47c958dc
d18a50a1	NARROWS	47c958dc
8b5a1699	NARROWS	47c958dc

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	f09ad71a, 3e1d2c5a, d12a4819, 370615aa, 1d365563, 900b045d

Summary

Leans supported. The main support is: The institutional release corroborates that roughly one fifth of European wetlands are highly affected by human activity and inland marshes are most disturbed. 60c9e032

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 36f5b511

Qualifier: The classification used overlap, a 150-m buffer, and all remaining mapped wetlands for three disturbance levels. a3e55c87

Qualifier: The estimates cover 2018 natural and seminatural open wetlands and exclude historically lost, forested, and heavily drained wetlands. ada275f3

Qualifier: Disturbance was proxied from CLC2018 agricultural and urban classes plus distance to those features. e2739597

A narrower version of this claim is supported. ef84423f

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
22717	APPENDED
22718	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
22735	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
22747	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
22765	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
23348	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24370	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "94a1dbf9-ef1a-87a3-9928-ac1e47c958dc",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "39287124-3fb5-8309-b655-dc5ff09ad71a",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "63f68a92-9460-877f-bd68-d488a3e55c87",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "SELF",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "6fc09704-9c9f-8f1a-a757-e1213e1d2c5a",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "c576545e-a1c0-89a3-9bd4-3f3c68eb0f99",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "SELF",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "85ab21f7-5d55-8032-b7aa-1562d12a4819",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "187e5aa1-1049-8348-aaa0-65fcada275f3",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "SELF",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "9fb7e337-3b3e-8a85-859f-53d511969a65",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "f782e4a1-de8f-883a-8429-5af560c9e032",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.459000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.459000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "a4a1c700-9a11-8af7-848b-4ae9370615aa",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "6763bb43-22e7-85c2-a0db-e527e2739597",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "SELF",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "e6258df9-3192-8949-bce3-7c53900b045d",
      "link": "d1b1b574-1106-82e9-8b27-fd9f1d365563",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "533f421c-e5c1-8478-b235-eb8b36f5b511",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "SELF",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "e6258df9-3192-8949-bce3-7c53900b045d",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "f8c92312-1528-8b60-b9a4-89c2b0b497fd",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "SELF",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0653",
    "permissive": "0.6449",
    "conservative": "0.5796"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.6128",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "0.459000",
  "snapshot_seq": 24371,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "LEANS_SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "39287124-3fb5-8309-b655-dc5ff09ad71a",
        "6fc09704-9c9f-8f1a-a757-e1213e1d2c5a",
        "85ab21f7-5d55-8032-b7aa-1562d12a4819",
        "a4a1c700-9a11-8af7-848b-4ae9370615aa",
        "d1b1b574-1106-82e9-8b27-fd9f1d365563",
        "e6258df9-3192-8949-bce3-7c53900b045d"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "0.459000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 7
}