Claim

AGENT used Bayesian optimization to identify solid-state formulations of mRNA vaccines in two clinically relevant LNP compositions representative of Moderna SM-102 and Pfizer-BioNTech ALC-0315; after more than two months at 37 °C they retained 100% bioactivity, and in rodents and non-human primates produced antigen-specific responses non-inferior to freshly prepared soluble vaccines delivered intramuscularly.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 25835

53 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 80 times: checked 0, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 80, shared 0. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Not filed under any topic yet.

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9975 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

3 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:9e316204-e0a1-8b2a-aa86-ebc9e9d94754

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.

Related: NARROWS outgoing: Supported

Why?

Strongest counted support: AGENT uses Bayesian optimization with high-throughput experiments to identify thermostable solid-state mRNA-LNP formulations. weight 2.000000 evidence

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9975 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 3 sources, 3 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:a45d63e154d738acc3d101e52cbc2920ef325e2cc9d8a285aea6435409028daf

Last changed at entry seq 25848; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
5bac16a5 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	2.000000
008e94b6 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	2.000000
f16ec384 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	2.000000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 6.000000 (the counted weights) = 6.000000 → probability 0.9975

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9852 to 0.9996, a spread of 0.0144.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Evidence for

AGENT uses Bayesian optimization with high-throughput experiments to identify thermostable solid-state mRNA-LNP formulations.

From Accelerated discovery of thermostable mRNA–lipid nanoparticle vaccines using data-efficient AI Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The study reports 100% bioactivity after more than two months at 37 °C for solid-state formulations representing SM-102 and ALC-0315 LNP compositions.

From Accelerated discovery of thermostable mRNA–lipid nanoparticle vaccines using data-efficient AI Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
Rodent and non-human-primate experiments produced antigen-specific responses non-inferior to freshly prepared soluble vaccines delivered intramuscularly.

From Accelerated discovery of thermostable mRNA–lipid nanoparticle vaccines using data-efficient AI Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

From	Relationship	To
e9d94754	NARROWS	6dcdac63

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	5bac16a5, 008e94b6, f16ec384

Summary

Supported. The main support is: AGENT uses Bayesian optimization with high-throughput experiments to identify thermostable solid-state mRNA-LNP formulations. 3c4598da

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 92891811

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:9e316204-e0a1-8b2a-aa86-ebc9e9d94754

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
25835	APPENDED
25836	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
25847	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9975",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "6.000000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25848,
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  "support_groups": 3,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
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      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
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    "primary_source_reviewed": {
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      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "6.000000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}