Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

Climate · 1efd24fe Employment · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted support: The primary study reports the nationwide publication-count estimate for a 1% PM2.5 increase. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt directly reports approximately 1,053 fewer nationwide publications per 1% PM2.5 increase.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

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Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “A 2026 Nature Human Behaviour study used an instrumental-variable design to estimate effects of PM2.5 air pollution on academic productivity in China.” · 3 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

• The primary study reports the nationwide publication-count estimate for a 1% PM2.5 increase.

  From Impacts of PM2.5 air pollution on high-skilled worker productivity in China Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  Primary quantitative estimate.

• The excerpt directly reports approximately 1,053 fewer nationwide publications per 1% PM2.5 increase.

  From Impacts of PM2.5 air pollution on high-skilled worker productivity in China Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

• The estimate concerns individual scholars’ publications and annual PM2.5 exposure, identified with an instrumental-variable design rather than a raw national count.

  From Impacts of PM2.5 air pollution on high-skilled worker productivity in China Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

• The 1,053 figure is approximate, nationwide, and heterogeneous by pollution intensity and scholar productivity and age.

  From Impacts of PM2.5 air pollution on high-skilled worker productivity in China Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

• The publication series shown by the study spans 2015–2022.

  From Impacts of PM2.5 air pollution on high-skilled worker productivity in China Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
62dcf4c7		27e6e243

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	27e6e243, 05fa38bc, f0719c9b, 25f3ea2a, 5c3eb1c8

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
19606	APPENDED
19607	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
19624	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24784	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
25991	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)