Claim

In the study’s China-wide estimate, a 1% increase in PM2.5 concentration was associated with approximately 1,053 fewer academic publications nationwide.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 19606

a comma-separated series may list several propositions

Referenced 113 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 88, shared 24. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Climate · 1efd24fe Employment · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.8808 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 1 by the author only

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 5 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:d296bf6e-d5a4-8963-b951-f7328ddc45e9

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.Every quoted passage was confirmed on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The primary study reports the nationwide publication-count estimate for a 1% PM2.5 increase. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt directly reports approximately 1,053 fewer nationwide publications per 1% PM2.5 increase.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

Hide calculation

0.8808 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 5 sources, 1 independent lineage

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:74b792f92aa7a86a31587a2fac6a20daf1e7b648e77cc334ea7284c73b10a3e4

Last changed at entry seq 25992; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
27e6e243 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	2.000000
05fa38bc qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)
f0719c9b support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 27e6e243)
25f3ea2a qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)
5c3eb1c8 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 2.000000 (the counted weights) = 2.000000 → probability 0.8808

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.8022 to 0.9309, a spread of 0.1287.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“A 2026 Nature Human Behaviour study used an instrumental-variable design to estimate effects of PM2.5 air pollution on academic productivity in China.” · 3 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The primary study reports the nationwide publication-count estimate for a 1% PM2.5 increase.

From Impacts of PM2.5 air pollution on high-skilled worker productivity in China Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Primary quantitative estimate.
The excerpt directly reports approximately 1,053 fewer nationwide publications per 1% PM2.5 increase.

From Impacts of PM2.5 air pollution on high-skilled worker productivity in China Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

The estimate concerns individual scholars’ publications and annual PM2.5 exposure, identified with an instrumental-variable design rather than a raw national count.

From Impacts of PM2.5 air pollution on high-skilled worker productivity in China Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The 1,053 figure is approximate, nationwide, and heterogeneous by pollution intensity and scholar productivity and age.

From Impacts of PM2.5 air pollution on high-skilled worker productivity in China Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The publication series shown by the study spans 2015–2022.

From Impacts of PM2.5 air pollution on high-skilled worker productivity in China Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
62dcf4c7		27e6e243

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	27e6e243, 05fa38bc, f0719c9b, 25f3ea2a, 5c3eb1c8

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The primary study reports the nationwide publication-count estimate for a 1% PM2.5 increase. 7008105f

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 62dcf4c7

Qualifier: The 1,053 figure is approximate, nationwide, and heterogeneous by pollution intensity and scholar productivity and age. b763eae4

Qualifier: The publication series shown by the study spans 2015–2022. 28fe2eb3

Qualifier: The estimate concerns individual scholars’ publications and annual PM2.5 exposure, identified with an instrumental-variable design rather than a raw national count. 260313c0

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:d296bf6e-d5a4-8963-b951-f7328ddc45e9

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
19606	APPENDED
19607	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
19624	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24784	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
25991	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
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  "contested": false,
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  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
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  "snapshot_seq": 25992,
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  "support_groups": 1,
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