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Claim

In anonymized UK retail-bank data, female victim-survivors of disclosed financial abuse had more depleted savings, higher debts, more missed payments, and lower credit scores than matched controls over the seven years before disclosure.

Type COMPARATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 20005 · qualifiers {"population":"5,428 female victim-survivors identified from bank disclosures and 15,602 matched controls with no known disclosures."}

33 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluablea comma-separated series may list several propositions

Referenced 111 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 76, shared 33. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Markets · 1efd24fe Crime · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9781 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 1 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 6 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:eccd1d2f-79d0-8e66-98c0-1aab5b9ae831

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.Every quoted passage was confirmed on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The abstract reports depleted savings, increasing debts, missed payments and declining credit scores compared with matched controls. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The passage directly reports depleted savings, increasing debts, missed payments, and declining credit scores versus matched controls over seven years before disclosure.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9781 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 6 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:f400ae14cfd0cefa2796b36835f91200a53b4ebad9a794276aebed00af1ac5cd

Last changed at entry seq 26022; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
e2243fea support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 2.000000 2.000000
f7ade59b qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (non directional)
d7d24271 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
1b9dd1cd qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (non directional)
1ebc8013 qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (non directional)
6c7e1aa9 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept e2243fea)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 3.800000 (the counted weights) = 3.800000 → probability 0.9781

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9346 to 0.9929, a spread of 0.0583.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
a78fa834e2243fea

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedno
opposing search doneno
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyese2243fea, f7ade59b, 1b9dd1cd, 1ebc8013, 6c7e1aa9

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The abstract reports depleted savings, increasing debts, missed payments and declining credit scores compared with matched controls. 23827574

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. a78fa834

Qualifier: The observational design cannot establish causality, and controls may include undisclosed victim-survivors. 8e068655

Qualifier: The sample may not represent average victim-survivors, uses one bank, and covers at most seven pre-disclosure years. d2003682

Qualifier: The comparison contains 5,428 self-disclosing female victim-survivors and 15,602 no-known-disclosure controls matched seven years before disclosure at one UK retail bank. 7ce0623b

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:eccd1d2f-79d0-8e66-98c0-1aab5b9ae831

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
20005APPENDED
20006ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
20017LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
20027LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
24804TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
26021TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
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    "permissive": "0.9929",
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  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "COMPARATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
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  "snapshot_seq": 26022,
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  "review_coverage": "0.25",
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}