Claim

Across the past two decades, vegetation productivity overcompensation after late-spring frost intensified as warming reduced frost-related losses and increased regrowth.

Type COMPARATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 21158 · qualifiers {"scope":"Northern Hemisphere observational/model synthesis reported in the Nature Plants study."}

Referenced 121 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 78, shared 41. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Environment · 1efd24fe Biology · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9781 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

1 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:f84d0b37-43b4-8012-a5b3-a6003316fe25

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.Every quoted passage was confirmed on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The abstract directly reports intensified overcompensation over two decades as warming reduced frost losses and increased regrowth. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The passage directly reports intensified productivity overcompensation over two decades as warming reduced frost losses and increased regrowth.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9781 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 3 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:0176722d9ac9b90367c047f1cc322c972e25eef2b2e5c75bf976245d895471bc

Last changed at entry seq 24845; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
a2f63f1e support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 5659c6d9)
66f135ee support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
5659c6d9 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	2.000000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 3.800000 (the counted weights) = 3.800000 → probability 0.9781

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9346 to 0.9929, a spread of 0.0583.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“Across the past two decades, vegetation productivity overcompensation after late-spring frost intensified as warming reduced frost-related losses and...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“The Nature Plants study found that warmer temperatures and higher species diversity strengthened post-frost compensatory responses in grassland experiments,...” · 2 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The abstract directly reports intensified overcompensation over two decades as warming reduced frost losses and increased regrowth.

From Overcompensation of vegetation productivity after late-spring frost in the Northern Hemisphere Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
A Nature Plants research briefing corroborates that reduced damage and enhanced regrowth drive widespread frost overcompensation and that warming is expected to increase its prevalence.

From Vegetation overcompensation after late-spring frost is widespread across terrestrial ecosystems Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The passage directly reports intensified productivity overcompensation over two decades as warming reduced frost losses and increased regrowth.

From Overcompensation of vegetation productivity after late-spring frost in the Northern Hemisphere Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Time span, warming mechanism, frost-loss reduction, and regrowth increase are explicit.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
bfb25e38		5659c6d9

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

1 check by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	a2f63f1e, 5659c6d9

Summary

Supported. The main support is: A Nature Plants research briefing corroborates that reduced damage and enhanced regrowth drive widespread frost overcompensation and that warming is expected to increase its prevalence. 641abc2d

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. bfb25e38

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:f84d0b37-43b4-8012-a5b3-a6003316fe25

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
21158	APPENDED
21159	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
21168	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
21177	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24844	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "f84d0b37-43b4-8012-a5b3-a6003316fe25",
  "links": [
    {
      "kept": "94052446-ff97-861e-bae3-2eaf5659c6d9",
      "link": "1f2e8627-fe96-85a1-aafa-1e37a2f63f1e",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "39549cdc-a927-8fbd-aa58-abc0bfb25e38",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "57dc47e4-cbe4-8478-8608-8c6366f135ee",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "d036ff8a-056a-80ee-8e10-a517641abc2d",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "94052446-ff97-861e-bae3-2eaf5659c6d9",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "700b8153-a8e2-8b99-8ec9-a2be4f4ec671",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "2.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0583",
    "permissive": "0.9929",
    "conservative": "0.9346"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "COMPARATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9781",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "3.800000",
  "snapshot_seq": 24845,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "1f2e8627-fe96-85a1-aafa-1e37a2f63f1e",
        "94052446-ff97-861e-bae3-2eaf5659c6d9"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "3.800000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}