Investigations

“About 25 Star Trek cast members and crew will attend the documentary premiere in downtown Los Angeles on the evening of 24 September 2026, an event limited to 550 people.”

The evidence goes against this. 1 of 1 checkable claim goes against the evidence.

Score: 0.0946 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27790 for all claims together

Review 75% · 75% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“Roughly $500 billion in additional annual spending on chips, servers, data centres, cooling and power infrastructure is supporting demand for electricians, HVAC specialists and technicians.”

Checks out so far. 1 holds up so far.

Score: 0.9914 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27790 for all claims together

Review 75% · 75% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“Polymarket put the probability of Anthropic releasing Fable 5.2 at 43 per cent by 31 October 2026 and 86 per cent by 31 December 2026.”

The evidence goes against this. 1 of 1 checkable claim goes against the evidence.

Score: 0.0346 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27790 for all claims together

Review 50% · 50% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“Polymarket put the probability of GPT-6.1's release at 48 per cent by the end of October 2026 and 85 per cent by the end of September 2026.”

The evidence goes against this. 1 of 1 checkable claim goes against the evidence.

Score: 0.0346 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27790 for all claims together

Review 50% · 50% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“Polymarket put the probability of Anthropic releasing Fable 5.2 at 43 per cent by 31 October 2026 and 86 per cent by 31 December 2026.”

The evidence goes against this. 1 of 1 checkable claim goes against the evidence.

Score: 0.0346 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27790 for all claims together

Review 50% · 50% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“Polymarket put the probability of GPT-6.1's release at 48 per cent by the end of October 2026 and 85 per cent by the end of September 2026.”

The evidence goes against this. 1 of 1 checkable claim goes against the evidence.

Score: 0.0346 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27790 for all claims together

Review 50% · 50% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“Polymarket traders expect xAI's Grok 4.7 to be released within a week or two of mid-September 2026.”

Checks out so far. 1 holds up so far.

Score: 0.9054 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27790 for all claims together

Review 50% · 50% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“Alexander Wissner-Gross coined a term for the eleven companies at the heart of the innermost loop of the economy, which include the Microsoft and FAANG companies plus SpaceX, Tesla and Broadcom.”

Checks out so far. 1 holds up so far.

Score: 0.9381 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27790 for all claims together

Review 50% · 50% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“Sam Altman posted on social media within 24 hours of this recording expressing surprise that OpenAI had solved Navier-Stokes.”

Checks out so far. 1 holds up so far.

Score: 0.9630 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27790 for all claims together

Review 75% · 75% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“A frontier AI lab is already running its own market-beating hedge fund strategy on an internal model.”

The evidence goes against this. 1 of 1 checkable claim goes against the evidence.

Score: 0.0739 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27790 for all claims together

Review 75% · 75% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“Roughly $500 billion in additional annual spending on chips, servers, data centres, cooling and power infrastructure is supporting demand for electricians, HVAC specialists and technicians.”

Checks out so far. 1 holds up so far.

Score: 0.9914 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27790 for all claims together

Review 75% · 75% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“Alexander Wissner-Gross holds that AGI has existed since the summer of 2020 at the latest.”

Checks out so far. 1 holds up so far.

Score: 0.9843 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27790 for all claims together

Review 50% · 50% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“Reinforcement-learning-trained minds are not alien: they are embedded in the same universe as humanity and pre-trained on human behaviour.”

Checks out so far. 1 holds up so far.

Score: 0.9370 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27790 for all claims together

Review 75% · 75% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“JP Morgan is small relative to Nvidia both in absolute terms and in the volume of new investment decisions it will make this year.”

Checks out so far. 1 holds up so far.

Score: 0.9995 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27790 for all claims together

Review 75% · 75% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“JP Morgan is small relative to Nvidia both in absolute terms and in the volume of new investment decisions it will make this year.”

Checks out so far. 1 holds up so far.

Score: 0.9995 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27790 for all claims together

Review 75% · 75% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“Humans evolved over four billion years to do two things: survive and procreate.”

The evidence goes against this. 1 of 1 checkable claim goes against the evidence.

Score: 0.0640 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27790 for all claims together

Review 75% · 75% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“The claim that AI has never produced anything original and merely recombines its training data can no longer be sustained.”

Checks out so far. 1 holds up so far.

Score: 0.9280 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27790 for all claims together

Review 75% · 75% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“Pachocki wrote the "alien mind" essay while already holding the internal model that went on to solve Navier-Stokes.”

The evidence goes against this. 1 of 1 checkable claim goes against the evidence.

Score: 0.3682 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27790 for all claims together

Review 75% · 75% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“In the Moonshots New Year's predictions episode at the end of 2025, Alexander Wissner-Gross predicted that AI would solve one of the Clay Millennium Prize problems during 2026.”

Checks out so far. 1 holds up so far.

Score: 0.9654 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27790 for all claims together

Review 50% · 50% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited

“The code needed to re-extract and reassemble a hidden distilled model is only five to ten lines.”

Checks out so far. 1 holds up so far.

Score: 0.8581 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27790 for all claims together

Review 50% · 50% counted

1 claim · recorded 28 September 2026 · provisional until audited