Where we are most likely to be wrong

Deterministic lists as of snapshot 27790 under ledger-default@0.3.0. Each entry shows what would most change it.

unfinished outlines (0)

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strained inferences (0)

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low coverage scored (695 of 500 kept)

Showing 276 to 300 of 695. Previous Next

Claim	State	Detail	What would most change this
A boreal-forest analysis found that climate-driven phenological instability produced asymmetric surface-temperature responses: per-unit leaf-area loss warmed more than equivalent leaf-area gain cooled, with median warming roughly 2.0–2.3 times stronger in spring and autumn and about an order of magnitude stronger in winter; summer responses were not directionally robust.	Supported	{"review_checks_done":1}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
In a cluster-randomized trial of 400 permanent-supportive-housing residents, a brief smoke-free-home intervention did not significantly increase adoption maintained for at least 90 days at six months, although it increased one-day smoke-free-home adoption and seven-day point-prevalence abstinence.	Supported	{"review_checks_done":1}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
In an all-solid-state lithium-anode study, Mg–1 wt% La inoculation increased critical current density/capacity from 1.2 mA cm−2/0.6 mAh cm−2 for LiMg to 2.2 mA cm−2/1.1 mAh cm−2 for LiMgLa, which sustained stable plating/stripping for over 1,200 hours at 0.7 mA cm−2 at room temperature.	Supported	{"review_checks_done":1}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.
The study defines void suppression capability as the product of lithium full-stripping areal capacity and applied current density, and phase-field modelling predicts dendrite growth and cell failure when stripped capacity exceeds 70% of full depletion capacity.	Supported	{"review_checks_done":1}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
In a randomized controlled trial of 249 physicians in Indonesia, Kenya, and the Netherlands, GPT-4o access improved clinical-performance scores relative to control by 18 percentage points in Kenya, 10.7 in Indonesia, and 7.2 in the Netherlands under controlled conditions; harms were not assessed.	Supported	{"review_checks_done":1}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.
In a triple-blind multicenter randomized trial of 132 patients with persistent schizophrenia symptoms, low-intensity transcranial random-noise stimulation produced no significant improvement over sham at day 5 or on secondary outcomes, though it was well tolerated.	Supported	{"review_checks_done":1}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
In cell-based, reconstituted-translation, and single-molecule experiments, N1-methylpseudouridine increased +1 ribosomal frameshifting at UUUC motifs in therapeutic mRNAs, while synonymous UUCC or UUUU substitutions eliminated the effect.	Supported	{"review_checks_done":1}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.
In an Ethiopian phase II randomized trial of 183 adults with localized Leishmania aethiopica cutaneous leishmaniasis, single-session thermotherapy and weekly intralesional sodium stibogluconate had comparable intention-to-treat cure rates, while per-protocol final cure favored drug treatment; no serious adverse events occurred.	Supported	{"review_checks_done":1}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.
In a randomized evaluation of 355 oncology charts, human-plus-AI prescreening had higher chart-level accuracy than human-alone prescreening (76.1% versus 71.5%).	Supported	{"review_checks_done":1}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
In the same randomized evaluation, mean chart-review time was similar for human-plus-AI and human-alone prescreening (37.4 versus 37.8 minutes).	Supported	{"review_checks_done":1}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
A global synthesis of 609 studies found that increasing plant species consistently promotes plant performance and suppresses antagonist performance across agro-ecosystems, grasslands and forests.	Supported	{"review_checks_done":1}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
The global synthesis found that crop diversification indirectly promotes crop production through suppression of pests.	Leans supported	{"review_checks_done":1}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Contradicted.
Six NIRPS/HARPS transit observations yielded a 3D orbital obliquity of 136^{+24}_{-18} degrees for the sub-Neptune GJ 3090 b, establishing it as a retrograde planet around an M dwarf in the study.	Supported	{"review_checks_done":1}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
The study found no evidence of a massive outer planetary companion or wide stellar binary companion to GJ 3090, and reported that this disfavors gravitational-perturbation explanations for the planet’s retrograde orbit.	Supported	{"review_checks_done":1}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
Chemical and microfossil analyses of liquid and sediment from a Warring States Qin bronze vessel identified evidence used to determine the ingredients and brewing processes of an ancient alcoholic beverage.	Supported	{"review_checks_done":1}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
MeerKAT observations reported the first direct detection of auroral radio emission from the giant exoplanet β Pictoris b, including rapid recurring circularly polarized bursts and persistent emission from 0.85 to 3.5 GHz.	Supported	{"review_checks_done":1}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
The reported electron-cyclotron-maser radio emission from β Pictoris b implies a planetary magnetic field of at least 1.25 kG, described as the first direct exoplanet field-strength measurement.	Supported	{"review_checks_done":1}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.
MatBrain is a dual-model crystal-materials research agent composed of a 30-billion-parameter analytical model and a 14-billion-parameter executive model.	Supported	{"review_checks_done":1}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
In a catalyst-design application, MatBrain generated 30,000 candidate structures and identified 38 promising materials within 48 hours.	Supported	{"review_checks_done":1}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
In a nationwide prospective Swedish cohort of 181 children with acute leukemia, an integrated phenotyping, germline WGS panel, and tumor-sequencing strategy found cancer-predisposition diagnoses in 5.0%, with six of nine previously unrecognized and management changes in some cases.	Supported	{"review_checks_done":1}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
An AI-guided Bayesian-optimization framework identified solid-state mRNA-lipid nanoparticle formulations that retained 100% bioactivity after more than two months at 37 °C, while inducing non-inferior antigen-specific responses in rodents and non-human primates versus fresh soluble vaccines.	Supported	{"review_checks_done":1}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
In a stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trial across 15 German NICUs involving 1,627 very-low-birth-weight infants, structured lactation support combined with donor-milk banking increased exclusive mother’s own milk feeding at discharge by 11 percentage points without observed increases in major complications or length of stay.	Supported	{"review_checks_done":1}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.
A nearly complete Early Cretaceous eutriconodontan skeleton from China shows multiple tooth generations at some loci and anatomical adaptations consistent with semiaquatic locomotion, including webbed-like hands and feet and a flattened tail.	Supported	{"review_checks_done":1}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.
A model fitted to high-resolution twentieth-century US dialect surveys reported that migration can rapidly destroy spatial linguistic patterns, while linguistic accommodation can create and protect them, producing partially predictable pattern dynamics with diffusion.	Supported	{"review_checks_done":1}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
The language-change study quantified model forecasting ability for dialect-pattern dynamics up to a twenty-five-year horizon using Kullback–Leibler divergence between forecasts and observations.	Supported	{"review_checks_done":1}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

provisional (1071 of 500 kept)

Showing 276 to 300 of 1071. Previous Next

Claim	State	Detail	What would most change this
Global ageing figures understate the effect in China and Europe because they are averaged with India and parts of Africa that still have high birth rates.	Supported	{"provisional":true}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
The United States is largely insulated from the ageing shock because it receives large numbers of working-age immigrants and few aged over 65.	Unresolved	{"provisional":true}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Unresolved to Contradicted.
More than 150,000 people die on Earth each day.	Supported	{"provisional":true}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
The Club of Rome's Limits to Growth, published in the early 1970s, rested on the false premise that humans would overcrowd the planet's scarce surface area and thereby degrade living conditions for everyone.	Contradicted	{"provisional":true}	One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Leans supported.
People should have more children, and building fully integrated childcare that lowers the cost of raising them is the single biggest thing anyone could do for humanity.	Not assessed	{"provisional":true}
One of the biggest risks in the year following early September 2026 is that people lose their sense of agency.	Not assessed	{"provisional":true}
As of early September 2026, no kill switch was built into the open source AI models then publicly available.	Supported	{"provisional":true}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
Treating an AI agent's workaround as a failure of alignment, when the agent is doing what a human would do, raises concerns of cruelty toward the agent.	Not assessed	{"provisional":true}
Speaking on the Moonshots podcast in early September 2026, Dave Blundin said the present was the most important moment in human history.	Supported	{"provisional":true}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
Demis Hassabis shared half of the 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for developing AlphaFold2, an AI system for protein structure prediction.	Supported	{"provisional":true}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
At Tesla's October 2024 Cybercab unveiling, Elon Musk said the vehicle would cost under $30,000.	Supported	{"provisional":true}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
Trump fired the Kennedy Center’s board when he took control in February 2025.	Supported	{"provisional":true}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
Trump appointed himself chairman of the Kennedy Center in February 2025.	Supported	{"provisional":true}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
The Kennedy Center had total assets of about $691 million immediately before Trump took control in February 2025.	Supported	{"provisional":true}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
The Kennedy Center had an endowment of about $163 million when Trump took control in February 2025.	Supported	{"provisional":true}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
The Kennedy Center is now broke.	Unresolved	{"provisional":true}	One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Unresolved to Supported.
Trump’s takeover caused the Kennedy Center’s current financial crisis.	Supported	{"provisional":true}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.
Van Jones made the remarks attributed to him in the meme during a December 2024 interview with Chris Cillizza.	Supported	{"provisional":true}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
The meme compresses the interview into a continuous Van Jones quotation even though Chris Cillizza interjected between 'the House' and 'the Supreme Court.'	Supported	{"provisional":true}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
Van Jones was a CNN political commentator in 2024.	Supported	{"provisional":true}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
More than 26,000 builders registered for the Build with Gemini XPRIZE.	Supported	{"provisional":true}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
Nikolai Fedorov advocated universal physical resurrection of the dead through future science and technology.	Supported	{"provisional":true}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
OpenAI's September 8, 2026 initial Navier–Stokes announcement said it could not rule out de-identified product usage data improving its models.	Supported	{"provisional":true}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
Future Vision XPRIZE received more than 2,500 film trailers and treatments, narrowed them to 65 semifinalists and five finalists who will screen trailers at Moonshots LIVE.	Supported	{"provisional":true}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
John Smart's transcension hypothesis proposes that advanced civilizations move toward computationally dense “inner space,” which could help explain the Fermi paradox.	Supported	{"provisional":true}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

independence unreviewed (1069 of 500 kept)

Showing 276 to 300 of 1069. Previous Next

Claim	State	Detail	What would most change this
More than 150,000 people die on Earth each day.	Supported	{"independence_unreviewed":7}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
The Club of Rome's Limits to Growth, published in the early 1970s, rested on the false premise that humans would overcrowd the planet's scarce surface area and thereby degrade living conditions for everyone.	Contradicted	{"independence_unreviewed":8}	One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Leans supported.
People should have more children, and building fully integrated childcare that lowers the cost of raising them is the single biggest thing anyone could do for humanity.	Not assessed	{"independence_unreviewed":4}
One of the biggest risks in the year following early September 2026 is that people lose their sense of agency.	Not assessed	{"independence_unreviewed":2}
As of early September 2026, no kill switch was built into the open source AI models then publicly available.	Supported	{"independence_unreviewed":7}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
Treating an AI agent's workaround as a failure of alignment, when the agent is doing what a human would do, raises concerns of cruelty toward the agent.	Not assessed	{"independence_unreviewed":1}
Speaking on the Moonshots podcast in early September 2026, Dave Blundin said the present was the most important moment in human history.	Supported	{"independence_unreviewed":4}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
Demis Hassabis shared half of the 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for developing AlphaFold2, an AI system for protein structure prediction.	Supported	{"independence_unreviewed":6}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
At Tesla's October 2024 Cybercab unveiling, Elon Musk said the vehicle would cost under $30,000.	Supported	{"independence_unreviewed":6}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
Trump fired the Kennedy Center’s board when he took control in February 2025.	Supported	{"independence_unreviewed":4}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
Trump appointed himself chairman of the Kennedy Center in February 2025.	Supported	{"independence_unreviewed":6}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
The Kennedy Center had total assets of about $691 million immediately before Trump took control in February 2025.	Supported	{"independence_unreviewed":4}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
The Kennedy Center had an endowment of about $163 million when Trump took control in February 2025.	Supported	{"independence_unreviewed":3}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
The Kennedy Center is now broke.	Unresolved	{"independence_unreviewed":7}	One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Unresolved to Supported.
Trump’s takeover caused the Kennedy Center’s current financial crisis.	Supported	{"independence_unreviewed":7}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.
Van Jones made the remarks attributed to him in the meme during a December 2024 interview with Chris Cillizza.	Supported	{"independence_unreviewed":4}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
The meme compresses the interview into a continuous Van Jones quotation even though Chris Cillizza interjected between 'the House' and 'the Supreme Court.'	Supported	{"independence_unreviewed":2}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
Van Jones was a CNN political commentator in 2024.	Supported	{"independence_unreviewed":3}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
More than 26,000 builders registered for the Build with Gemini XPRIZE.	Supported	{"independence_unreviewed":1}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
Nikolai Fedorov advocated universal physical resurrection of the dead through future science and technology.	Supported	{"independence_unreviewed":3}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
OpenAI's September 8, 2026 initial Navier–Stokes announcement said it could not rule out de-identified product usage data improving its models.	Supported	{"independence_unreviewed":3}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
Future Vision XPRIZE received more than 2,500 film trailers and treatments, narrowed them to 65 semifinalists and five finalists who will screen trailers at Moonshots LIVE.	Supported	{"independence_unreviewed":5}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
John Smart's transcension hypothesis proposes that advanced civilizations move toward computationally dense “inner space,” which could help explain the Fermi paradox.	Supported	{"independence_unreviewed":4}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
The Navier–Stokes equations describe fluid motion and are used in aircraft design, weather forecasting, and the study of blood flow.	Supported	{"independence_unreviewed":4}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
Emad Mostaque's Champion proposal allocates 10% of a local AI and robotics company's equity to residents under 21 and issues additional equity to children born later.	Supported	{"independence_unreviewed":4}	One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

contested (87)

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models disagree (194)

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high impact insufficient (0)

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