Deterministic lists as of snapshot 27745 under ledger-default@0.3.0. Each entry shows what would most change it.
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| Claim | State | Detail | What would most change this |
|---|
| During the first two migratory seasons after the 2024 Klamath dam removals, Chinook salmon recolonized 88% of their documented historical distribution, expanding into 345 km of reconnected habitat and reaching elevations up to 1,250 m. | Supported | {"review_checks_done":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| A CMOS-compatible photolithography process produced 4-inch-wafer-scale monolayer MoS2 transistors with physical channels below 5 nm, an 88 mV/dec subthreshold swing, and an on/off ratio above 10^6. | Supported | {"review_checks_done":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported. |
| In a 12-month randomized HealthMPowerment trial among young Black and Latinx men who have sex with men and transgender women, the smartphone intervention did not improve routine HIV testing; apparent viral-suppression benefits were no longer significant after adjustment for baseline suppression, age and income. | Supported | {"review_checks_done":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| Genomic analysis of 34 ancient individuals from southwestern Finland found coastal and inland Early Medieval groups were initially similar, but later coastal individuals had substantially greater Scandinavian ancestry while inland ancestry showed long continuity; the data also placed the region in a wider circum-Baltic relatedness network. | Supported | {"review_checks_done":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported. |
| FTIR analysis of Nworie River samples identified 54 microplastic spectral signatures across four major polymer types—polyethylene, polypropylene, polystyrene, and polyvinyl chloride—with the highest polymer diversity at urban-transit Site 5 and suburban Site 4. | Supported | {"review_checks_done":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| In the Nworie River assessment, gamma-chlordane had the highest detected concentration at 0.1704 mg/L, was detected at more than 60% of sampling sites above Federal Ministry of Environment limits, and Sites 4 and 5 were dual microplastic/OCP contamination hotspots. | Supported | {"review_checks_done":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| In the SHIP HOPE cluster-randomized trial of 2,514 children in 10 Chinese primary schools, a comprehensive hygiene package did not significantly reduce one-year H. pylori prevalence or incidence, although it substantially improved H. pylori knowledge. | Supported | {"review_checks_done":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| Radiocarbon modeling of 26 Sântana de Mureș-Chernyakhov individuals in a Carpathian cemetery suggests the cemetery was established a few years after the Roman Empire’s retreat, used for only a few decades, and shows no identified founding generation or subsequent large-scale mobility. | Supported | {"review_checks_done":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| The analyzed Sântana de Mureș-Chernyakhov individuals showed evidence consistent with poor overall health and strenuous physical exertion, with modest access to terrestrial animal protein and millet uniformly dominant over other cereals. | Supported | {"review_checks_done":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| In a 12-cored-well case study from the Chang 8 Member of China's Jiyuan Oilfield, an SE-ResNet18 well-log model achieved R² 0.86 and RMSE 0.287 mD for tight-sandstone permeability regression. | Supported | {"review_checks_done":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| Embedding a well-log-based sweet-spot index as a geological prior in an attention-gated KG-SE-ResNet18 model improved reservoir-type classification accuracy from 86.95% to 89.28% in the Jiyuan Oilfield case study. | Supported | {"review_checks_done":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| In a multicenter double-blind randomized trial of 1,152 women aged 35–42 at 13 Chinese fertility centers, non-invasive preimplantation genetic testing for aneuploidy did not significantly improve ongoing pregnancy rate versus morphology-based embryo selection. | Supported | {"review_checks_done":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported. |
| In pooled test-negative case-control data from 2,243 Indian children hospitalized with acute gastroenteritis, three doses of ROTASIIL had 52% adjusted effectiveness against rotavirus-gastroenteritis hospitalization among children aged 3–23 months. | Supported | {"review_checks_done":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| An analysis of five gridded surface-temperature datasets found detectable regional warming-rate changes since 1970 in only 4–10% of grid cells, with accelerations and shifts toward warming concentrated mainly at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes rather than a detectable global acceleration. | Supported | {"review_checks_done":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| In 389-day incubations across four permafrost types, multifunctional microbial inocula increased carbon-dioxide production, while active-layer inoculation under anoxic conditions quintupled methane production and increased six-month carbon-dioxide-equivalent emissions by 35%. | Supported | {"review_checks_done":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| In a single-center single-arm phase-2 trial of 20 patients with advanced fumarate-hydratase-deficient renal-cell carcinoma, first-line tislelizumab plus lenvatinib produced a 95% objective response rate and 100% disease-control rate, while grade 3-or-higher treatment-related adverse events occurred in 45%. | Supported | {"review_checks_done":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| In a nationwide prospective Swedish cohort of 181 children with acute leukemia, a three-pronged phenotyping and sequencing strategy identified pathogenic germline alterations in 9 patients (5.0%); 8 of 9 received tailored surveillance and 4 of 9 had treatment modifications. | Supported | {"review_checks_done":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| In a randomized trial of 649 school-age youth in 467 families experiencing parental divorce, the fully digital SES NXT intervention group missed 3.4 school days over 12 weeks versus 6.6 in a waitlist control group and had fewer partial absences. | Supported | {"review_checks_done":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| In an open-label pilot of 30 adults with Crohn’s disease, a single colonoscopic fecal microbiota transplant was associated with mucosal adherent-invasive E. coli decolonization in all 8 evaluable baseline-positive patients, with no FMT-related serious adverse events. | Supported | {"review_checks_done":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported. |
| Across 4,748 sites in 129 studies, formerly common species showed consistently stronger population declines than formerly rare species in marine and terrestrial assemblages, while freshwater assemblages showed no clear directional pattern. | Supported | {"review_checks_done":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Colonists absent at the start of a time series compensated for losses within the rarest abundance category in the synthesis of population trends. | Supported | {"review_checks_done":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Nine-year genomic monitoring of a tsunami-induced hybrid stickleback population in Japan found rapid genome-wide purging within a few generations, with marine Gasterosteus nipponicus alleles subsequently purged across the genome except at several loci. | Supported | {"review_checks_done":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| In the first few generations after tsunami-induced hybridization, Gasterosteus nipponicus alleles were purged at major loci associated with reproductive isolation, including ancestral-X and neo-X chromosomes. | Supported | {"review_checks_done":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| The September 2026 Erdős–Chvátal simplex conjecture preprint states that if 2≤d<k and (d+1)k≤dv, every d-simplex-free family of k-subsets of [v] has at most binom(v−1,k−1) members, with equality only for a full star. | Supported | {"review_checks_done":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| In the Proyecto Mamá randomized trial of 123 predominantly Puerto Rican women with overweight or obesity before pregnancy, a culturally tailored lifestyle intervention increased sports/exercise, household/caregiving, and light-intensity postpartum activity and doubled the odds of meeting ACOG activity guidelines, but did not improve combined moderate-to-vigorous activity or self-efficacy. | Supported | {"review_checks_done":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| Claim | State | Detail | What would most change this |
|---|
| Salim Ismail and Ted Shelton coined the term fiduciary wedge for the reasons a legal entity is still needed once coordination is automated: liability, fiduciary duty, proprietary data ownership, learning loops, brand and purpose. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported. |
| Legal entities will eventually be able to be owned by AI agents in Argentina and elsewhere. | Not assessed | {"provisional":true} | |
| Frontier labs walling off their most capable internal models pushes toward larger firms, the opposite of the Coasean prediction. | Leans supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Contradicted. |
| A frontier AI lab is already running its own market-beating hedge fund strategy on an internal model. | Contradicted | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Leans contradicted. |
| Sam Altman said that in the future an AI should be running OpenAI. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported. |
| Sam Altman posted on social media within 24 hours of this recording expressing surprise that OpenAI had solved Navier-Stokes. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported. |
| Dario Amodei has described an end state in which a single company such as Anthropic constitutes all private enterprise. | Leans contradicted | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Leans contradicted to Leans supported. |
| Organizations begin to lose alignment once they pass about 12 people and again once they pass about 150. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| The one-person company will not become the norm; the ten-person company and collectives of companies will. | Not assessed | {"provisional":true} | |
| Economics needs to flip from being scarcity-based to abundance-based, because bits and soon atoms can be rearranged at will. | Not assessed | {"provisional":true} | |
| Mercor now has 50,000 to 100,000 individual contributors operating effectively as small companies, in India and Brazil. | Leans contradicted | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Leans contradicted to Leans supported. |
| Elon Musk is building the most vertically integrated company the world has seen, with supply chain control reaching down to turning raw sand into chips. | Leans contradicted | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Leans contradicted to Leans supported. |
| Tesla has opened an official interest form for businesses wanting to buy Cybercab fleets and build mobility hubs and charging infrastructure for the robotaxi network, with no pricing or delivery terms announced. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| The Tesla Cybercab is projected to cost $30,000. | Insufficient evidence | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Insufficient evidence to Supported. |
| Elon Musk previously described a Tesla fleet model combining Uber and Airbnb in which owners add or subtract their own car from the fleet. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Owning a fleet of robotaxis or humanoid robots is becoming the franchising path to wealth that laundromats and restaurant franchises were decades ago. | Unresolved | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Unresolved to Contradicted. |
| Platform owners heavily subsidise the success of their earliest franchisees to build momentum, as with early Starbucks franchises. | Contradicted | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Leans contradicted. |
| Distributed robotaxi ownership has a near-zero marginal cost of adding capacity, as Airbnb does against hotels, making it superior to centralised fleet ownership. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| The robotaxi market will be won by whoever has the lowest operating and production cost, and nothing currently competes with Tesla on those. | Not assessed | {"provisional":true} | |
| Robots will be the biggest investment class ever seen. | Not assessed | {"provisional":true} | |
| The global population over 65 is projected to grow from 852 million in 2025 to 2 billion by 2060, accounting for more than half of all population growth in that period. | Contradicted | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Leans contradicted. |
| Fewer working-age people supporting more retirees will put severe economic pressure on pensions and healthcare in every developed economy. | Not assessed | {"provisional":true} | |
| Longevity should be treated as economic policy rather than a luxury, because a healthy 80-year-old is an economic contributor rather than a pension liability. | Not assessed | {"provisional":true} | |
| The sequence of education, career and retirement will evaporate, replaced by repeated cycles of learning, creation and sabbatical. | Not assessed | {"provisional":true} | |
| China is moving to robots out of necessity because of the demographic consequences of its one child policy, with Japan as the earlier preview. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Claim | State | Detail | What would most change this |
|---|
| Frontier labs walling off their most capable internal models pushes toward larger firms, the opposite of the Coasean prediction. | Leans supported | {"independence_unreviewed":8} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Contradicted. |
| A frontier AI lab is already running its own market-beating hedge fund strategy on an internal model. | Contradicted | {"independence_unreviewed":6} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Leans contradicted. |
| Sam Altman said that in the future an AI should be running OpenAI. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":8} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported. |
| Sam Altman posted on social media within 24 hours of this recording expressing surprise that OpenAI had solved Navier-Stokes. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":10} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported. |
| Dario Amodei has described an end state in which a single company such as Anthropic constitutes all private enterprise. | Leans contradicted | {"independence_unreviewed":7} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Leans contradicted to Leans supported. |
| Organizations begin to lose alignment once they pass about 12 people and again once they pass about 150. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":10} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| The one-person company will not become the norm; the ten-person company and collectives of companies will. | Not assessed | {"independence_unreviewed":5} | |
| Economics needs to flip from being scarcity-based to abundance-based, because bits and soon atoms can be rearranged at will. | Not assessed | {"independence_unreviewed":3} | |
| Mercor now has 50,000 to 100,000 individual contributors operating effectively as small companies, in India and Brazil. | Leans contradicted | {"independence_unreviewed":5} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Leans contradicted to Leans supported. |
| Elon Musk is building the most vertically integrated company the world has seen, with supply chain control reaching down to turning raw sand into chips. | Leans contradicted | {"independence_unreviewed":9} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Leans contradicted to Leans supported. |
| Tesla has opened an official interest form for businesses wanting to buy Cybercab fleets and build mobility hubs and charging infrastructure for the robotaxi network, with no pricing or delivery terms announced. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":6} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| The Tesla Cybercab is projected to cost $30,000. | Insufficient evidence | {"independence_unreviewed":3} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Insufficient evidence to Supported. |
| Elon Musk previously described a Tesla fleet model combining Uber and Airbnb in which owners add or subtract their own car from the fleet. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":7} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Owning a fleet of robotaxis or humanoid robots is becoming the franchising path to wealth that laundromats and restaurant franchises were decades ago. | Unresolved | {"independence_unreviewed":8} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Unresolved to Contradicted. |
| Platform owners heavily subsidise the success of their earliest franchisees to build momentum, as with early Starbucks franchises. | Contradicted | {"independence_unreviewed":5} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Leans contradicted. |
| Distributed robotaxi ownership has a near-zero marginal cost of adding capacity, as Airbnb does against hotels, making it superior to centralised fleet ownership. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":6} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| The robotaxi market will be won by whoever has the lowest operating and production cost, and nothing currently competes with Tesla on those. | Not assessed | {"independence_unreviewed":3} | |
| Robots will be the biggest investment class ever seen. | Not assessed | {"independence_unreviewed":3} | |
| The global population over 65 is projected to grow from 852 million in 2025 to 2 billion by 2060, accounting for more than half of all population growth in that period. | Contradicted | {"independence_unreviewed":10} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Leans contradicted. |
| Fewer working-age people supporting more retirees will put severe economic pressure on pensions and healthcare in every developed economy. | Not assessed | {"independence_unreviewed":3} | |
| Longevity should be treated as economic policy rather than a luxury, because a healthy 80-year-old is an economic contributor rather than a pension liability. | Not assessed | {"independence_unreviewed":4} | |
| The sequence of education, career and retirement will evaporate, replaced by repeated cycles of learning, creation and sabbatical. | Not assessed | {"independence_unreviewed":3} | |
| China is moving to robots out of necessity because of the demographic consequences of its one child policy, with Japan as the earlier preview. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":10} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Global ageing figures understate the effect in China and Europe because they are averaged with India and parts of Africa that still have high birth rates. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":8} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| The United States is largely insulated from the ageing shock because it receives large numbers of working-age immigrants and few aged over 65. | Unresolved | {"independence_unreviewed":13} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Unresolved to Contradicted. |
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Galedra