Where we are most likely to be wrong
Deterministic lists as of snapshot 27790 under ledger-default@0.3.0. Each entry shows what would most change it.
unfinished outlines (0)
None.
strained inferences (0)
None.
low coverage scored (695 of 500 kept)
provisional (1071 of 500 kept)
| Claim | State | Detail | What would most change this |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump cut off NBC's Kelly O'Donnell with "Not you" before she finished a follow-up question and pointed to a different reporter. | Contradicted | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Unresolved. |
| At the September 18, 2026 Oval Office event Trump took credit for foreign leaders being elected to office. | Leans supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Leans contradicted. |
| On September 19, 2026 journalists from CNN, MS NOW and Politico were kept off White House grounds, and the outlets then sued on First Amendment grounds. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported. |
| September 18, 2026 fell 46 days before the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| Trump's aim in banning news outlets is complete control of what Americans see and hear. | Unresolved | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Unresolved to Contradicted. |
| The September 18, 2026 Oval Office session was a press conference Trump held to announce the press ban. | Contradicted | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Leans contradicted. |
| Trump's September 18, 2026 Oval Office event began at 3:29 p.m. | Contradicted | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Unresolved. |
| Trump left for a weekend at Camp David directly after the September 18, 2026 Oval Office event. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| At the September 18, 2026 Oval Office event Trump told a story about grabbing Melania Trump's bottom on an escalator. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| After a reporter noted that the First Amendment protects freedom of the press, Trump replied "Thank you for telling me that." | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| A federal judge forced Trump's White House to restore CNN reporter Jim Acosta's press credential in 2018. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Trump's end goal is complete control of everything Americans see and hear. | Unresolved | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Unresolved to Contradicted. |
| The Soviet Union's newspaper named Truth printed only what the Kremlin approved, and journalists who refused to go along with the propaganda were imprisoned or killed. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Trump's Truth Social announcement said media outlets should not be able to constantly write or report fiction and lies when covering the President, the Trump Administration or the United States. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Trump's Truth Social announcement included a parenthetical saying MS NOW recently changed its name from MSNBC due to lack of viewership and credibility. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Trump posted the ban announcement on Truth Social less than half an hour before the Oval Office event. | Unresolved | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Unresolved to Contradicted. |
| Asked what the ban would look like, Trump said he was involved in many bans and had more bans going than any human being. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| When reporters asked Trump about the ban, he had already forgotten what he had just announced. | Unresolved | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Unresolved to Contradicted. |
| The same reporter repeated the question about the ban, and Trump then said "Oh, the ban on the free press, right?" | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| Trump said it was a very simple ban, that he did not want the outlets in his office or at the White House, that the ban would go as far as you can, and that he would love it if they straightened themselves out. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| Trump named the New York Times and the Washington Post as potential future targets and said the White House would probably stop displaying those papers. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Asked what the ban would mean in practice, including whether badges would be taken or the outlets barred from the pool, Trump did not specify. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| On September 19, 2026 reporters from CNN, MS NOW and Politico were denied access to White House grounds following Trump's announced ban. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| During the September 18, 2026 Oval Office event Trump held up printouts from Breitbart News and pointed to them. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| Breitbart News is co-owned by the Mercer family. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
independence unreviewed (1069 of 500 kept)
| Claim | State | Detail | What would most change this |
|---|---|---|---|
| On September 19, 2026 journalists from CNN, MS NOW and Politico were kept off White House grounds, and the outlets then sued on First Amendment grounds. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":5} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported. |
| September 18, 2026 fell 46 days before the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| Trump's aim in banning news outlets is complete control of what Americans see and hear. | Unresolved | {"independence_unreviewed":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Unresolved to Contradicted. |
| The September 18, 2026 Oval Office session was a press conference Trump held to announce the press ban. | Contradicted | {"independence_unreviewed":4} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Leans contradicted. |
| Trump's September 18, 2026 Oval Office event began at 3:29 p.m. | Contradicted | {"independence_unreviewed":3} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Unresolved. |
| Trump left for a weekend at Camp David directly after the September 18, 2026 Oval Office event. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":5} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| At the September 18, 2026 Oval Office event Trump told a story about grabbing Melania Trump's bottom on an escalator. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":2} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| After a reporter noted that the First Amendment protects freedom of the press, Trump replied "Thank you for telling me that." | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":5} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| A federal judge forced Trump's White House to restore CNN reporter Jim Acosta's press credential in 2018. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":7} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Trump's end goal is complete control of everything Americans see and hear. | Unresolved | {"independence_unreviewed":2} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Unresolved to Contradicted. |
| The Soviet Union's newspaper named Truth printed only what the Kremlin approved, and journalists who refused to go along with the propaganda were imprisoned or killed. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":6} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Trump's Truth Social announcement said media outlets should not be able to constantly write or report fiction and lies when covering the President, the Trump Administration or the United States. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":3} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Trump's Truth Social announcement included a parenthetical saying MS NOW recently changed its name from MSNBC due to lack of viewership and credibility. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":4} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Trump posted the ban announcement on Truth Social less than half an hour before the Oval Office event. | Unresolved | {"independence_unreviewed":6} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Unresolved to Contradicted. |
| Asked what the ban would look like, Trump said he was involved in many bans and had more bans going than any human being. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":2} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| When reporters asked Trump about the ban, he had already forgotten what he had just announced. | Unresolved | {"independence_unreviewed":5} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Unresolved to Contradicted. |
| The same reporter repeated the question about the ban, and Trump then said "Oh, the ban on the free press, right?" | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":5} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| Trump said it was a very simple ban, that he did not want the outlets in his office or at the White House, that the ban would go as far as you can, and that he would love it if they straightened themselves out. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":2} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| Trump named the New York Times and the Washington Post as potential future targets and said the White House would probably stop displaying those papers. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":3} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Asked what the ban would mean in practice, including whether badges would be taken or the outlets barred from the pool, Trump did not specify. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":2} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| On September 19, 2026 reporters from CNN, MS NOW and Politico were denied access to White House grounds following Trump's announced ban. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":4} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| During the September 18, 2026 Oval Office event Trump held up printouts from Breitbart News and pointed to them. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":1} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| Breitbart News is co-owned by the Mercer family. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":6} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| The Mercer family financially supported Trump's presidential rise from the beginning. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":8} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Steve Bannon once described Breitbart as the platform for the alt-right. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":3} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported. |
contested (87)
None.
models disagree (194)
None.
high impact insufficient (0)
None.
disputed audits (0)
None.