Galedra
Where we are most likely to be wrong
Deterministic lists as of snapshot 27745 under ledger-default@0.3.0. Each entry shows what would most change it.
unfinished outlines (0)
None.
strained inferences (0)
None.
low coverage scored (695 of 500 kept)
provisional (1071 of 500 kept)
| Claim | State | Detail | What would most change this |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket put the probability of GPT-6.1's release at 48 per cent by the end of October 2026 and 85 per cent by the end of September 2026. | Contradicted | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Leans contradicted. |
| Polymarket put the probability of Anthropic releasing Fable 5.2 at 43 per cent by 31 October 2026 and 86 per cent by 31 December 2026. | Contradicted | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Leans contradicted. |
| GPT-6 Astra has won Pokemon, Portal and other visually intensive interactive games. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Social media rumour holds that a version of Astra offering real-time interactive control will appear before the end of 2026. | Not assessed | {"provisional":true} | |
| The modern use of GPUs in AI began with ImageNet and the ILSVRC computer vision competition, and reinforcement learning as a field began with DeepMind's deep reinforcement learning for winning games. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Every corporation will fundamentally need to become an AI company. | Not assessed | {"provisional":true} | |
| Palantir's Alex Karp publicly told companies to become an AI company or die. | Leans contradicted | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Leans contradicted to Supported. |
| OpenAI has offered corporations a revenue-sharing deal under which it becomes their permanent AI partner. | Leans contradicted | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Leans contradicted to Leans supported. |
| Frontier labs are releasing models faster because Chinese open source models are at near parity with them and the labs need separation to win enterprise deals. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| OpenAI's next DevDay falls on 29 September 2026. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| A model trained on 100,000 GPUs cannot be served at the speeds users see from Astra, so frontier labs hold a larger internal model that they distil down into the served one. | Leans supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Contradicted. |
| A documentary on the 60 years of Star Trek, executive produced by William Shatner, premieres the night before Moonshots Live. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| About 25 Star Trek cast members and crew will attend the documentary premiere in downtown Los Angeles on the evening of 24 September 2026, an event limited to 550 people. | Contradicted | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Unresolved. |
| The Build with Gemini XPRIZE asked teams worldwide to pick a problem affecting 100,000 people and build, from a clean sheet in under 90 days, the company with the greatest revenue. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| 26,000 teams entered the Build with Gemini XPRIZE. | Insufficient evidence | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Insufficient evidence to Supported. |
| The Build with Gemini XPRIZE is the largest hackathon in history by a wide margin. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Over 5,000 teams registered for the Future of Vision XPRIZE, which has been narrowed to 25 entries and will end with five finalists showing three-minute film trailers. | Insufficient evidence | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Insufficient evidence to Supported. |
| The Future of Vision XPRIZE judges include Neil deGrasse Tyson, Neal Stephenson, Rod Roddenberry and Mira Lane of Google. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| The AI investment cycle is roughly in its third inning of nine. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported. |
| Moonshots Live will feature interviews with Palmer Luckey, creator of Oculus and founder of Anduril; Ben Lamm, CEO of Colossal; and Astro Teller. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Moonshots Live tickets cost $1,500, with 100 scholarships set aside for young builders. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Conservative estimates hold that 45 per cent of dementia cases are entirely preventable. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Advanced testing found that one quarter of Fountain Life's members had advanced brain age. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Pairing Fountain Life's testing with healthy living changes improved members' brain age by 26 per cent. | Contradicted | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Leans contradicted. |
| Banks in China give AI tokens as credit card rewards. | Supported | {"provisional":true} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
independence unreviewed (1069 of 500 kept)
| Claim | State | Detail | What would most change this |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 Astra has won Pokemon, Portal and other visually intensive interactive games. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":8} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Social media rumour holds that a version of Astra offering real-time interactive control will appear before the end of 2026. | Not assessed | {"independence_unreviewed":4} | |
| The modern use of GPUs in AI began with ImageNet and the ILSVRC computer vision competition, and reinforcement learning as a field began with DeepMind's deep reinforcement learning for winning games. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":15} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Every corporation will fundamentally need to become an AI company. | Not assessed | {"independence_unreviewed":4} | |
| Palantir's Alex Karp publicly told companies to become an AI company or die. | Leans contradicted | {"independence_unreviewed":4} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Leans contradicted to Supported. |
| OpenAI has offered corporations a revenue-sharing deal under which it becomes their permanent AI partner. | Leans contradicted | {"independence_unreviewed":6} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Leans contradicted to Leans supported. |
| Frontier labs are releasing models faster because Chinese open source models are at near parity with them and the labs need separation to win enterprise deals. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":10} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| OpenAI's next DevDay falls on 29 September 2026. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":7} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| A model trained on 100,000 GPUs cannot be served at the speeds users see from Astra, so frontier labs hold a larger internal model that they distil down into the served one. | Leans supported | {"independence_unreviewed":9} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Contradicted. |
| A documentary on the 60 years of Star Trek, executive produced by William Shatner, premieres the night before Moonshots Live. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":6} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| About 25 Star Trek cast members and crew will attend the documentary premiere in downtown Los Angeles on the evening of 24 September 2026, an event limited to 550 people. | Contradicted | {"independence_unreviewed":6} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Unresolved. |
| The Build with Gemini XPRIZE asked teams worldwide to pick a problem affecting 100,000 people and build, from a clean sheet in under 90 days, the company with the greatest revenue. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":8} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| 26,000 teams entered the Build with Gemini XPRIZE. | Insufficient evidence | {"independence_unreviewed":1} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Insufficient evidence to Supported. |
| The Build with Gemini XPRIZE is the largest hackathon in history by a wide margin. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":8} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Over 5,000 teams registered for the Future of Vision XPRIZE, which has been narrowed to 25 entries and will end with five finalists showing three-minute film trailers. | Insufficient evidence | {"independence_unreviewed":1} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Insufficient evidence to Supported. |
| The Future of Vision XPRIZE judges include Neil deGrasse Tyson, Neal Stephenson, Rod Roddenberry and Mira Lane of Google. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":3} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| The AI investment cycle is roughly in its third inning of nine. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":7} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported. |
| Moonshots Live will feature interviews with Palmer Luckey, creator of Oculus and founder of Anduril; Ben Lamm, CEO of Colossal; and Astro Teller. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":6} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Moonshots Live tickets cost $1,500, with 100 scholarships set aside for young builders. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":5} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Conservative estimates hold that 45 per cent of dementia cases are entirely preventable. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":10} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Advanced testing found that one quarter of Fountain Life's members had advanced brain age. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":8} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Pairing Fountain Life's testing with healthy living changes improved members' brain age by 26 per cent. | Contradicted | {"independence_unreviewed":4} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Leans contradicted. |
| Banks in China give AI tokens as credit card rewards. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":10} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| China Telecom sells access to 142 AI models in the manner of a mobile data plan. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":8} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Restaurants in China hand customers compute credits after a meal. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":7} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
contested (87)
None.
models disagree (194)
| Claim | State | Detail | What would most change this |
|---|---|---|---|
| The study’s scenario estimates that 2.66 million hectares of wetlands would need restoration by 2030 across the EEA38. | Leans supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED"}} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Leans contradicted. |
| Paper2Agent is an automated framework that converts research papers and their associated code, data and workflows into interactive AI agents exposed through MCP servers. | Leans supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED"}} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Leans contradicted. |
| Paper2Agent validates each generated tool against reference-code results and figures using example datasets, then locks validated tools to support reproducibility. | Leans supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED"}} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Contradicted. |
| In a corpus of 100 computational-biology papers, Paper2Agent successfully agentified 74 papers and produced 599 proposed tools, of which 593 passed automated validation. | Leans supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED"}} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Contradicted. |
| On 300 tutorial-derived benchmark questions, Paper2Agent with Sonnet 4 achieved 91.2 ± 1.6% accuracy, compared with 80.3 ± 2.3% for direct-repository Claude Code using Sonnet 4. | Leans supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED"}} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Contradicted. |
| Across 26 data- and discovery-focused papers, Paper2Agent’s resource layer achieved 89.0 ± 3.1% accuracy on 100 synthesis questions and was reported as cheaper and faster than a browser-use baseline. | Leans supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED"}} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Contradicted. |
| The Tel Shiqmona study reported that purple-dye production was probably integrated into the compound's seasonal activity cycle during complementary time windows. | Supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| The study reports that Palaeolithic artists used Schreger and Owen’s natural lines in mammoth ivory to inform geometric compositions engraved on many Mizyn figurines. | Supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| The Dewar-region evidence implies that the Moon had an internally generated magnetic field stronger than 10 μT around 4.2 billion years ago. | Leans supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE"}} | |
| The meningeal atlas data support a yolk-sac origin for meningeal myeloid lineages, including perivascular macrophages described as primed for barrier immunity. | Supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | |
| The study's GWAS, cell-interaction analyses, and mouse validation indicate that peripheral nerves fine-tune maxilla shape during embryonic development. | Leans supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | |
| In macrophage models, TRAM regulates myddosome assembly by dissociating MyD88 from the TLR–TIRAP complex, enabling maturation of receptor-free cytosolic myddosomes and downstream signaling. | Leans supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | |
| TRAM-dependent long-lasting myddosome activity determines hours-long NF-κB activation and secondary response gene expression in the studied TLR pathways. | Leans supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | |
| Chemical dissociation of cytosolic myddosomes disrupted inflammatory activities of TLR-stimulated cells in vitro and in vivo. | Leans supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | |
| In mice and pigs with traumatic brain injury, dynamic compressive tibial axial loading promoted motor and cognitive recovery, and osteocyte Piezo1 was required for the benefit in mice. | Leans supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | |
| In pregnant female mice, increased SK3 activity in dorsal-raphe serotonin neurons reduced firing and promoted food-craving-like behavior; deleting SK3 reduced that behavior. | Leans supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | |
| In the Mississippi River Basin, agricultural liming acted as a net carbon sink over the past century relative to the study’s anthropogenic-acidity counterfactual. | Leans supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | |
| The interpretation comes from digital and microscopic analysis of 18 Mizyn ivory figurines; geometric ornamentation was documented on 11 of them, so the claim that natural ivory lines informed engraved compositions concerns many but not necessarily every figurine. | Supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | |
| The yolk-sac-origin statement is atlas-based support from paired single-nuclei RNA/ATAC and spatial data collected across human cranial meningeal development at 6–21 post-conception weeks; it is not presented here as direct lineage tracing across all development. | Supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} |
high impact insufficient (0)
None.
disputed audits (0)
None.