Claim

In the analyzed dataset, plate-interface roughness measured at scales up to 10 km did not show a primary relationship with maximum earthquake potential.

Type OBSERVATIONAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 19662

Referenced 105 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 1, viewed 78, shared 25. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Earth science · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.8581 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 1 by the author only

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 6 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:09d6736b-4796-8d9a-8a36-966aab73a89c

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from nature.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Related: NARROWS incoming: Supported

Why?

Strongest counted support: The primary study reports the roughness finding and its scale. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The quoted passage directly concludes roughness at scales up to 10 km lacks primary control over maximum earthquake potential.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

Hide calculation

0.8581 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 6 sources, 1 independent lineage

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:fa639b78cc164e76056f41fa1f4d101b07e4e0407013668c1454eaba62fd7ab8

Last changed at entry seq 25516; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
fd9fa4b5 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	0.000000 (non directional)
7c40bad2 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
a6288515 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)
89cd6da2 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)
934af833 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 7c40bad2)
cf821973 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 1.800000 (the counted weights) = 1.800000 → probability 0.8581

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.7790 to 0.9121, a spread of 0.1331.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“A global analysis of 15 subduction zones examined whether plate-interface roughness predicts earthquake magnitude and whether interface coupling tracks...” · 3 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The primary study reports the roughness finding and its scale.

From Maximum earthquake magnitude unlikely to be controlled by subduction interface roughness Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Primary conclusion.
The quoted passage directly concludes roughness at scales up to 10 km lacks primary control over maximum earthquake potential.

From Maximum earthquake magnitude unlikely to be controlled by subduction interface roughness Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The excerpt states the scale and relationship conclusion.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

The analysis covered 15 globally distributed subduction zones and used a proxy for maximum earthquake magnitude.

From Maximum earthquake magnitude unlikely to be controlled by subduction interface roughness Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Specifies global subduction-zone scope and the earthquake-potential proxy.
The dataset comprised 35 seismic-reflection profiles across 15 subduction margins.

From Maximum earthquake magnitude unlikely to be controlled by subduction interface roughness Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Adds profile and margin denominators.
Maximum earthquake size was determined from the USGS catalogue within the study area.

From Maximum earthquake magnitude unlikely to be controlled by subduction interface roughness Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Clarifies the operational earthquake-size measure.
The authors describe the sample as current best available but call for more 3D observations before broader linkage claims.

From Maximum earthquake magnitude unlikely to be controlled by subduction interface roughness Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Limits extrapolation beyond sampled direct observations.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
f1a4df30		7c40bad2

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

From	Relationship	To
b161b5db	NARROWS	ab73a89c

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	fd9fa4b5, 7c40bad2, a6288515, 89cd6da2, 934af833, cf821973

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The primary study reports the roughness finding and its scale. 30d71eed

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. f1a4df30

Qualifier: The dataset comprised 35 seismic-reflection profiles across 15 subduction margins. b30b9a3c

Qualifier: Maximum earthquake size was determined from the USGS catalogue within the study area. d8be0bec

Qualifier: The analysis covered 15 globally distributed subduction zones and used a proxy for maximum earthquake magnitude. 9845c398

Qualifier: The authors describe the sample as current best available but call for more 3D observations before broader linkage claims. 699ec096

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
19662	APPENDED
19663	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
19676	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24495	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
25515	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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