Claim

The Brookings paper reports that adverse global oil-supply shocks no longer reliably generate U.S. recessions after the country’s shift to net oil exports.

Type COMPARATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 13555 · qualifiers {"time_range":"The paper contrasts the period through the early 2000s with the pattern after about 2010 and the net-exporter era."}

Referenced 128 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 1, viewed 88, shared 37. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Economics · 1efd24fe Prices and inflation · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9734 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 4 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:441bbf67-c9dd-8fa1-8147-61f141c58c6a

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from brookings.edu was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Related: NARROWS incoming: Supported

Why?

Strongest counted support: The passage directly states that after the shale-era shift, adverse global oil-supply shocks need not generate a U.S. recession. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: Brookings reports a post-shale reversal in the aggregate response to adverse oil-supply shocks, while noting gains and losses are not uniform across households and firms.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9734 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 4 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:8e60a10e2bd4bed49bf7e00623abf76df3d90435718e0a97b97d9d4b5bc430d8

Last changed at entry seq 13840; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
ceaf0284 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)
94024073 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation EXPERT_ANALYSIS 0.3 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.600000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 12b83054)
12b83054 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
7e70b5f6 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 3.600000 (the counted weights) = 3.600000 → probability 0.9734

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9255 to 0.9908, a spread of 0.0653.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“The Brookings paper reports that adverse global oil-supply shocks no longer reliably generate U.S. recessions after the country’s shift to net oil exports.” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026
“A Brookings paper reports that after the United States became a net oil exporter, adverse global oil-supply shocks no longer reliably caused U.S. recessions...” · 2 claims · 28 September 2026

Evidence for

Brookings reports a post-shale reversal in the aggregate response to adverse oil-supply shocks, while noting gains and losses are not uniform across households and firms.

From From importer to exporter: Oil shocks and the US economy Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The passage directly states that a shock need no longer generate a U.S. recession.
The paper directly links the U.S. importer-to-exporter transition with weakened and eventually expansionary oil-shock effects.

From From Importer to Exporter: Oil Shocks and the U.S. Economy Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Primary conference-paper abstract corroborates the historical comparison.
The passage directly states that after the shale-era shift, adverse global oil-supply shocks need not generate a U.S. recession.

From From importer to exporter: Oil shocks and the US economy Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

Brookings places the historical pattern change around 2010 and contrasts it with the pre-2000s period.

From From importer to exporter: Oil shocks and the US economy Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The passage distinguishes the approximate pattern-change date from the later net-exporter status.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
e8d173ec		12b83054

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

From	Relationship	To
865d0697	NARROWS	41c58c6a

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	ceaf0284, 94024073, 12b83054, 7e70b5f6

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The passage directly states that after the shale-era shift, adverse global oil-supply shocks need not generate a U.S. recession. e7fda7b4

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. e8d173ec

Qualifier: Brookings places the historical pattern change around 2010 and contrasts it with the pre-2000s period. f42cdecb

A narrower version of this claim is supported. 865d0697

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. c372d9f5

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:441bbf67-c9dd-8fa1-8147-61f141c58c6a

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
13555	APPENDED
13556	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
13563	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
13595	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
13601	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
13603	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "variants": {
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    "permissive": "0.9908",
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  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "COMPARATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9734",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "3.600000",
  "snapshot_seq": 13840,
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  "support_groups": 2,
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  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
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    "opposing_search_done": {
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    "primary_source_reviewed": {
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  "contradict_groups": 0,
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