Claim

The study compiled 35 seismic-reflection profiles spanning 15 subduction margins worldwide to compare plate-interface roughness with earthquake potential.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 19654

Referenced 76 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 51, shared 24. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Earth science · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.8581 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 1 by the author only

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:459bae4f-9846-8f5c-aba6-23c81956555a

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from nature.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The primary study reports its global profile and margin sample. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The quoted passage supports 35 profiles across 15 global subduction margins, but does not state the comparison’s analytical purpose.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

Hide calculation

0.8581 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 3 sources, 1 independent lineage

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:4a6ff3969d3a5190e20361ddb5541b9ff5fd30fc2ac3f629c4d6a0d4b2515296

Last changed at entry seq 25512; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
483558b4 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
bd7bf44a support	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.540000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 483558b4)
a40f2e55 qualify	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.540000	0.000000 (non directional)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 1.800000 (the counted weights) = 1.800000 → probability 0.8581

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.7790 to 0.9121, a spread of 0.1331.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“A global analysis of 15 subduction zones examined whether plate-interface roughness predicts earthquake magnitude and whether interface coupling tracks...” · 3 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The primary study reports its global profile and margin sample.

From Maximum earthquake magnitude unlikely to be controlled by subduction interface roughness Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Primary dataset description.
The quoted passage supports 35 profiles across 15 global subduction margins, but does not state the comparison’s analytical purpose.

From Maximum earthquake magnitude unlikely to be controlled by subduction interface roughness Read 2026-09-29 Relevance MODERATE Steps 0 Counted

It directly supports the sample size and geographic scope only.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

The counted passage establishes the profile count and global subduction-margin coverage but omits the stated comparison of interface roughness with earthquake potential.

From Maximum earthquake magnitude unlikely to be controlled by subduction interface roughness Read 2026-09-29 Relevance MODERATE Steps 0 Counted

The passage supports the dataset composition and geographic scope but is narrower on the analytical purpose.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
75e19669		483558b4

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	483558b4, bd7bf44a, a40f2e55

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The primary study reports its global profile and margin sample. a3f778f2

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 75e19669

Qualifier: The counted passage establishes the profile count and global subduction-margin coverage but omits the stated comparison of interface roughness with earthquake potential. 074986fb

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:459bae4f-9846-8f5c-aba6-23c81956555a

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
19654	APPENDED
19655	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
19672	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24493	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
25511	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "459bae4f-9846-8f5c-aba6-23c81956555a",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "50005a7b-2ad5-83d9-aa52-8622483558b4",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "61369801-1707-844a-8710-fdb5a3f778f2",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "50005a7b-2ad5-83d9-aa52-8622483558b4",
      "link": "5cf69148-6f8d-81c8-b3b7-9081bd7bf44a",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "a1b96012-8542-81a1-8f09-4fec75e19669",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.540000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "6226c5e3-b7d0-84e0-9a69-e330a40f2e55",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "f6561b60-d47b-834c-b31a-3c39074986fb",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "0.540000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1331",
    "permissive": "0.9121",
    "conservative": "0.7790"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8581",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "1.800000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25512,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "50005a7b-2ad5-83d9-aa52-8622483558b4",
        "5cf69148-6f8d-81c8-b3b7-9081bd7bf44a",
        "6226c5e3-b7d0-84e0-9a69-e330a40f2e55"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "1.800000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}