Claim

In the Baby’s First Years randomized trial, low-income US mothers receiving US$333 per month rather than US$20 during their child’s first four years had four-year-old children with a 0.17-standard-deviation lower salivary DunedinPACE score, while maternal epigenetic indices showed no effect and child Epigenetic-g results were inconclusive.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 17184

46 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluablea comma-separated series may list several propositions

Referenced 99 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 70, shared 27. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Economics · 1efd24fe Medicine · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9468 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 1 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 6 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:b2455064-fb8f-8e6c-820c-07d52daedec5

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from mpg.de and nature.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: Higher cash gifts produced a −0.17 standard-deviation difference in children’s DunedinPACE, with no maternal epigenetic effect and no supported Epigenetic-g increase. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The quoted passage directly supports the DunedinPACE effect, null maternal indices, and unsupported Epigenetic-g increase, but omits the payment amounts and four-year sample details.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.

Hide calculation

0.9468 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 6 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:b6926158a0f7acbbf5fce7ea82bc21cc69cdb3fa25289c679d7627edad7ed284

Last changed at entry seq 25336; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
fa9566d4 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	0.000000 (non directional)
8692a09b support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
9e38c7c5 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 8692a09b)
07c6ceac qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)
9c36b26b qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)
bfb3dc22 support	relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.080000	1.080000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 2.880000 (the counted weights) = 2.880000 → probability 0.9468

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.8825 to 0.9769, a spread of 0.0944.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“In the Baby’s First Years randomized trial, low-income US mothers receiving US$333 per month rather than US$20 during their child’s first four years had...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“In the Baby’s First Years randomized trial, low-income US mothers receiving US$333 per month rather than US$20 during their child’s first four years had...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

Higher cash gifts produced a −0.17 standard-deviation difference in children’s DunedinPACE, with no maternal epigenetic effect and no supported Epigenetic-g increase.

From Effects of a randomized controlled trial of unconditional cash transfers on epigenetic measures of ageing and cognition in children and mothers Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
Max Planck independently reports the randomized cash levels, slower child biological aging marker, and null maternal aging result.

From Cash transfers to mothers with low income may slow biological aging in children Read 2026-09-29 Relevance STRONG Steps 0 Counted

Institutional secondary coverage corroborates the intervention and direction of epigenetic findings; the primary paper supplies the exact −0.17 standard-deviation estimate.
The quoted passage directly supports the DunedinPACE effect, null maternal indices, and unsupported Epigenetic-g increase, but omits the payment amounts and four-year sample details.

From Effects of a randomized controlled trial of unconditional cash transfers on epigenetic measures of ageing and cognition in children and mothers Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Supports the outcome clauses; the payment amounts, sample counts, and age are not stated in this packet excerpt.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

The cash comparison concerns low-income US mothers and their children during the first four years, with epigenetic measures designated secondary outcomes.

From Effects of a randomized controlled trial of unconditional cash transfers on epigenetic measures of ageing and cognition in children and mothers Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Adds intervention timing and secondary-outcome scope.
The child DunedinPACE analysis used 735 saliva samples collected at age 4, not every randomized child.

From Effects of a randomized controlled trial of unconditional cash transfers on epigenetic measures of ageing and cognition in children and mothers Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Bounds the child analysis to age-4 saliva samples.
The study does not establish whether the child epigenetic effect persists or predicts later health and behavior.

From Effects of a randomized controlled trial of unconditional cash transfers on epigenetic measures of ageing and cognition in children and mothers Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Records the unresolved durability and downstream-outcome limitation.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
828b9078		8692a09b

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	fa9566d4, 8692a09b, 9e38c7c5, 07c6ceac, 9c36b26b

Summary

Supported. The main support is: Higher cash gifts produced a −0.17 standard-deviation difference in children’s DunedinPACE, with no maternal epigenetic effect and no supported Epigenetic-g increase. 49d823a7

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 828b9078

Qualifier: The child DunedinPACE analysis used 735 saliva samples collected at age 4, not every randomized child. bda12f3a

Qualifier: The cash comparison concerns low-income US mothers and their children during the first four years, with epigenetic measures designated secondary outcomes. a36eafeb

Qualifier: The study does not establish whether the child epigenetic effect persists or predicts later health and behavior. 8def06b0

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:b2455064-fb8f-8e6c-820c-07d52daedec5

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
17184	APPENDED
17185	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
17190	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
17230	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
17244	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
25335	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "b2455064-fb8f-8e6c-820c-07d52daedec5",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "0f1353fc-1f57-8190-b99a-f1cafa9566d4",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "2714da5f-b78c-80b0-a88e-3b22bda12f3a",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "20b7d018-30ba-8fa6-b85c-2fea8692a09b",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "fc8121d4-3aef-8b6c-b6a7-a0e849d823a7",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "20b7d018-30ba-8fa6-b85c-2fea8692a09b",
      "link": "49bfa6c0-c937-8d39-963a-dc4d9e38c7c5",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "f83d518a-f6b0-847b-ab46-f3dd828b9078",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "6bc262e5-1366-87ba-9f55-a3a607c6ceac",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "4d950a22-0eb2-8a45-9163-d373a36eafeb",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "77a643f2-bace-8df4-9ff2-f46c9c36b26b",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "70f23781-f9e9-8d08-adf8-abab8def06b0",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "fdecbfc3-a697-8b3e-9f47-de15bfb3dc22",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "5d493147-766f-8c68-9d25-355a89605834",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.080000",
      "relevance": "STRONG",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.080000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0944",
    "permissive": "0.9769",
    "conservative": "0.8825"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9468",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "2.880000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25336,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "0f1353fc-1f57-8190-b99a-f1cafa9566d4",
        "20b7d018-30ba-8fa6-b85c-2fea8692a09b",
        "49bfa6c0-c937-8d39-963a-dc4d9e38c7c5",
        "6bc262e5-1366-87ba-9f55-a3a607c6ceac",
        "77a643f2-bace-8df4-9ff2-f46c9c36b26b"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "2.880000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 6
}