Claim

In the study's lunar-construction logistics model, 223 of 294 structured cases were analytically feasible and 197 met numerical acceptance criteria, yielding an 88.3% conditional acceptance rate.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 21021 · qualifiers {"population":"structured cases in the study's Earth–Apex–Moon logistics model","time_range":"study published 2026","denominator":"294 structured cases; 197/223 conditional acceptance"}

26 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluablea comma-separated series may list several propositions

Referenced 126 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 1, viewed 101, shared 23. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Technology · 1efd24fe Astronomy and space · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.8581 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 1 by the author only

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 6 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:cafd7dcf-21a7-893c-9229-a00896af3ed5

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from nature.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Related: NARROWS incoming: Supported

Why?

Strongest counted support: The abstract directly reports 223 analytically feasible cases, 197 numerically accepted cases, and an 88.3% conditional acceptance rate out of 294. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The abstract directly reports 223 feasible cases, 197 numerically accepted cases, and an 88.3% conditional acceptance rate among 294 cases.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

Hide calculation

0.8581 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 6 sources, 1 independent lineage

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:4d146c6b47b0a4c5665d4838bd599084dc9602a1e07e9a7ffd7f49b42bd70083

Last changed at entry seq 25578; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
5fed6f32 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 6a1e5f6f)
fb586e4f qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation CALCULATION 0.7 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.400000	0.000000 (non directional)
6a1e5f6f support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
e88d3b26 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MODEL_OUTPUT 0.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (non directional)
1c924a4c qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MODEL_OUTPUT 0.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (non directional)
b6e28ee4 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MODEL_OUTPUT 0.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (non directional)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 1.800000 (the counted weights) = 1.800000 → probability 0.8581

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.7790 to 0.9121, a spread of 0.1331.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“In a 2026 Scientific Reports lunar-construction logistics model, 223 of 294 structured cases were analytically feasible and 197 met numerical acceptance...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The abstract directly reports 223 analytically feasible cases, 197 numerically accepted cases, and an 88.3% conditional acceptance rate out of 294.

From A reliability-aware framework for campaign-scale lunar construction logistics with space-elevator transshipment Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The abstract directly reports 223 feasible cases, 197 numerically accepted cases, and an 88.3% conditional acceptance rate among 294 cases.

From A reliability-aware framework for campaign-scale lunar construction logistics with space-elevator transshipment Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

The study uses a modeled three-node Earth–Apex–Moon framework comparing direct, elevator-transshipment, and hybrid logistics.

From A reliability-aware framework for campaign-scale lunar construction logistics with space-elevator transshipment Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Identifies the model architecture and transport scenarios.
The reported construction-time stress test targets 10^8 tonnes rather than an observed lunar construction campaign.

From A reliability-aware framework for campaign-scale lunar construction logistics with space-elevator transshipment Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Adds the modeled stress-test target and non-empirical scope.
The 88.3% figure is conditional on analytical feasibility among 294 structured cases.

From A reliability-aware framework for campaign-scale lunar construction logistics with space-elevator transshipment Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Clarifies the conditional denominator behind 88.3%.
Separate conditional design frequencies are based on 500 accepted Latin-hypercube campaigns.

From A reliability-aware framework for campaign-scale lunar construction logistics with space-elevator transshipment Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Distinguishes the separate 500-campaign design-frequency denominator.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
42cf75cc		6a1e5f6f

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

From	Relationship	To
e702ed88	NARROWS	96af3ed5

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	5fed6f32, fb586e4f, 6a1e5f6f, e88d3b26, 1c924a4c, b6e28ee4

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The abstract directly reports 223 analytically feasible cases, 197 numerically accepted cases, and an 88.3% conditional acceptance rate out of 294. eba54f36

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 42cf75cc

Qualifier: The 88.3% figure is conditional on analytical feasibility among 294 structured cases. 3c715481

Qualifier: Separate conditional design frequencies are based on 500 accepted Latin-hypercube campaigns. 1cffd250

Qualifier: The reported construction-time stress test targets 10^8 tonnes rather than an observed lunar construction campaign. 4c641a7e

Qualifier: The study uses a modeled three-node Earth–Apex–Moon framework comparing direct, elevator-transshipment, and hybrid logistics. 86f15003

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
21021	APPENDED
21022	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
21027	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
21029	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
25577	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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