Claim

A sequentially valid reanalysis found that evidence against ΛCDM was concentrated almost entirely in the DESI LRG2 redshift bin, weakened to mild support for ΛCDM when that bin was removed, and did not survive a look-elsewhere correction across seven bins.

Type COMPARATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 20164 · qualifiers {"scope":"Sequential reanalysis of DESI DR1-to-DR2 BAO data; result depends on the specified alternative and multiple-testing treatment."}

40 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluablea comma-separated series may list several propositions

Referenced 93 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 1, viewed 60, shared 30. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Astronomy and space · 1efd24fe Physics · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9908 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

3 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 6 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:d8b9bac8-397c-8f95-9818-e299a77b6958

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from arxiv.org and link.springer.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The supplied passage directly reports LRG2 concentration, weakening after removal, and failure under look-elsewhere correction across seven bins. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The sequential reanalysis abstract directly reports concentration in LRG2, weakening after its removal, and failure under look-elsewhere correction.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9908 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 6 sources, 3 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:8e98ab2003dedbc6f7ab2b6bb71451eaa4fee30408811761a3f5b09a2c4d224b

Last changed at entry seq 24328; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
6c5f1891 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
ab7786cb support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MODEL_OUTPUT 0.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 6c5f1891)
785f6c92 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)
754ea8ec support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
7c6ce0e2 support	relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.080000	1.080000
1b2dbb74 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 4.680000 (the counted weights) = 4.680000 → probability 0.9908

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9636 to 0.9977, a spread of 0.0341.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“A sequentially valid reanalysis found that evidence against ΛCDM was concentrated almost entirely in the DESI LRG2 redshift bin, weakened to mild support for...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“Recent analyses of DESI DR2 and complementary cosmological data report a roughly 3-sigma fit-level preference for evolving dark energy over ΛCDM in a...” · 2 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The sequential reanalysis abstract directly reports concentration in LRG2, weakening after its removal, and failure under look-elsewhere correction.

From A Sequentially-Valid Reanalysis of DESI's Dynamical Dark Energy Signal Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
An independent DESI DR2 analysis likewise finds that low-redshift LRG tracers drive much of the apparent preference and that removing them reduces it.

From Evidence for evolving dark energy from DESI DR2 BAO and Pantheon+, DES-Dovekie, and Union3 Read 2026-09-29 Relevance STRONG Steps 0 Counted
The supplied passage directly reports LRG2 concentration, weakening after removal, and failure under look-elsewhere correction across seven bins.

From A Sequentially-Valid Reanalysis of DESI's Dynamical Dark Energy Signal Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The passage explicitly states each component of the target claim.
The reanalysis localizes evidence against ΛCDM to LRG2; removing it mildly favors ΛCDM, and seven-bin look-elsewhere correction removes the signal.

From A Sequentially-Valid Reanalysis of DESI’s Dynamical Dark Energy Signal Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

The reported sequential evidence is conditional on a pre-specified alternative aligned with DR2’s preferred direction and an illustrative threshold.

From A Sequentially-Valid Reanalysis of DESI’s Dynamical Dark Energy Signal Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The target should not be read as an alternative-free or specification-independent result.
The analysis fixes Planck-2018 background parameters and varies only the CPL dark-energy parameters w0 and wa.

From A Sequentially-Valid Reanalysis of DESI’s Dynamical Dark Energy Signal Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The target is conditional on the stated fixed background and two-parameter CPL setup.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
1d3cd401		6c5f1891

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	6c5f1891, ab7786cb, 785f6c92, 754ea8ec, 7c6ce0e2, 1b2dbb74

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The supplied passage directly reports LRG2 concentration, weakening after removal, and failure under look-elsewhere correction across seven bins. 94b490bf

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 1d3cd401

Qualifier: The reported sequential evidence is conditional on a pre-specified alternative aligned with DR2’s preferred direction and an illustrative threshold. 6a06c719

Qualifier: The analysis fixes Planck-2018 background parameters and varies only the CPL dark-energy parameters w0 and wa. 5db8d30a

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 2bc658a8

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:d8b9bac8-397c-8f95-9818-e299a77b6958

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
20164	APPENDED
20165	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
20174	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
20193	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
22016	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
22812	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24327	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
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