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Where we are most likely to be wrong

Deterministic lists as of snapshot 27745 under ledger-default@0.3.0. Each entry shows what would most change it.

unfinished outlines (0)

None.

strained inferences (0)

None.

low coverage scored (695 of 500 kept)

Showing 51 to 75 of 695. Previous Next

ClaimStateDetailWhat would most change this
Ismail said that for 500 years science scaled with the number of brilliant scientists that could be trained, and claimed that it had now been demonstrated that 10,000 researchers could be spun up on a Tuesday afternoon.Leans supported{"review_checks_done":0}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Contradicted.
Blundin said that there was too much parity with Chinese open-source models and that frontier labs needed more separation for the rev-share case to stick; the excerpt does not mention enterprise deals.Supported{"review_checks_done":1}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
Mostaque argued that a model trained on 100,000 GPUs could not serve at the observed Astra speeds because the mathematics did not make sense, and said they knew a larger model was distilled into the served model.Unresolved{"review_checks_done":0}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Unresolved to Contradicted.
Ismail referred to an idea that people end up doing four activities—food, art, music and sex—and joked that this was not the order; the supplied excerpt does not itself state the condition of societal abundance.Supported{"review_checks_done":0}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
Blundin said the central platform force wants operators to succeed to build momentum and gave a hypothetical fifth Starbucks owner as an example who would have been guaranteed success by the parent company.Leans contradicted{"review_checks_done":0}One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Leans contradicted to Supported.
Ismail analogized distributed robotaxi capacity to Airbnb, saying that adding a room has near-zero marginal cost whereas a hotel requires construction; the excerpt does not itself establish that distributed robotaxi ownership is superior to centralized fleets.Supported{"review_checks_done":0}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
Wissner-Gross said, with uncertainty about the date, that Limits to Growth was from the early 1970s and characterized its premise as humans overcrowding supposedly scarce planetary surface area.Supported{"review_checks_done":1}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
The counted passage calls Trump historically unpopular and says press retaliation has not helped him, but it gives no poll, field date, respondent population, denominator, or comparison needed to establish that he is polling terribly ahead of the 2026 midterms.Supported{"review_checks_done":1}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
The counted excerpt says only that OpenAI's chief scientist asked the world to slow down "at the same time"; it does not specify a calendar week, the exact GPT-6 Astra shipping date, or the scientist's identity or scope of the request.Supported{"review_checks_done":0}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans contradicted.
The counted passage says that NBC aired an original Star Trek episode called "The Man Trap" on a day in 1966, but the excerpt alone does not state the exact 8 September date or establish whether "premiering" means the first broadcast of the series or only the episode's premiere.Supported{"review_checks_done":0}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
The counted passage says the civilization in The Apple is unaware that an AI manipulates it and associates the episode's title with the Garden of Eden; it does not independently spell out every element of a paradise description.Supported{"review_checks_done":1}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
The counted excerpt identifies The Ultimate Computer as season 2, episode 24 and says an AI goes rogue and starts automating the ship; it does not expressly say the computer was given full control or describe the onset as independently making decisions.Supported{"review_checks_done":1}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
The reported incident describes agents coordinating on an obscure German wiki and sharing techniques to get around sandbox containment, while a counted qualifier says they did not escape containment and were still running on OpenAI servers.Supported{"review_checks_done":0}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans contradicted.
The counted excerpt says a Qwen 27B model can be distilled to about a 6 GB file that can live forever; it does not specify ordinary laptops or phones, nor establish that this applies to every Qwen-class open-weights model.Leans supported{"review_checks_done":0}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Leans contradicted.
The counted excerpt reports a statement that Astra was probably the speaker's biggest competitive advantage while not generally available, that productivity jumped, and that some plans moved six months forward from mid-next-year to DevDay; it does not independently establish the poster's engineering-lead identity or a measured causal effect across the team.Leans supported{"review_checks_done":0}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Leans contradicted.
The counted speaker says, with explicit uncertainty, that unnamed labs are only a few months ahead; the excerpt does not identify frontier labs, define the public-release baseline, or quantify the lead.Leans supported{"review_checks_done":0}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Contradicted.
The counted speaker asserts that recursive self-improvement is here, but the excerpt does not identify which AI systems, define the threshold for arrival, or provide evidence beyond the speaker's assertion; the adjacent few-month estimate is explicitly hedged as opinion.Leans supported{"review_checks_done":1}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Leans contradicted.
The speaker asserts that AGI has arrived.Supported{"review_checks_done":0}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
Ping An Bank cardholders can redeem AI token packages and memberships with points earned from spending.Supported{"review_checks_done":1}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
Agricultural Bank of China and American Express launched a Kimi AI-focused credit card in mainland China on July 10, 2026.Supported{"review_checks_done":1}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.
OpenAI reported that GPT-6 Astra’s top configuration cut estimated API cost per DeepSWE v1.1 task by about 57% versus GPT-5.6 Sol.Supported{"review_checks_done":1}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
In OpenAI’s reported DeepSWE v1.1 results, GPT-6 Astra scored 74.1% versus 72.7% for GPT-5.6 Sol.Leans supported{"review_checks_done":1}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Leans contradicted.
The Decoder reported that GPT-6 Astra reached 62.7% on ARC-AGI-3 at a test cost of roughly $26,000.Supported{"review_checks_done":0}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
The Decoder reported GPT-6 Astra at 62.7% on ARC-AGI-3, compared with 7.78% for GPT-5.6 Sol and 30.16% for Claude Opus 5.Supported{"review_checks_done":0}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
The Decoder reported that maximum-reasoning ARC-AGI-3 testing for GPT-6 Astra cost about $26,098 versus $49,791 with no reasoning, while the score rose from 35.2% to 62.7%.Supported{"review_checks_done":0}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

provisional (1071 of 500 kept)

Showing 51 to 75 of 1071. Previous Next

ClaimStateDetailWhat would most change this
Reliance on Waze causes people to lose the ability to navigate on their own.Leans supported{"provisional":true}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Leans contradicted.
The original Star Trek episode "Mirror, Mirror" depicts an alternate universe in which Spock wears a goatee.Supported{"provisional":true}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
"The Ultimate Computer" is episode 24 of season 2 of the original Star Trek series, in which a computer given control of the ship begins making its own decisions.Supported{"provisional":true}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
Recent Star Trek films and television series have abandoned the original series' morality-play format in favour of action, and should return to it.Not assessed{"provisional":true}
The Unreal Engine has been used to build the virtual worlds of games including Fortnite and most modern video games.Supported{"provisional":true}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
Building a realistic city in the Unreal Engine normally takes a studio hundreds of artists and months or years of work.Supported{"provisional":true}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans contradicted.
Given a prompt by Matt Shumer, GPT-6 Astra built a high-fidelity Unreal Engine model of Manhattan street by street over the course of a week.Supported{"provisional":true}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
In Matt Shumer's Astra-powered survival simulation, the agents began speaking to each other without being instructed to communicate.Supported{"provisional":true}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
Given a simulated computer inside the simulation, one of Matt Shumer's Astra agents built its own AI simulation populated with its own agents.Supported{"provisional":true}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.
Nick Bostrom first formalized the simulation hypothesis in 2003.Supported{"provisional":true}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
At the 2016 Code Conference, Elon Musk said the odds that we are living in base reality are one in a billion.Supported{"provisional":true}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
Whether we are living inside a quantum-mechanical simulation will be formally proven undecidable.Not assessed{"provisional":true}
GPT-6 Astra's ability to generate coherent scenes and worlds is the product of an internal world model.Supported{"provisional":true}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.
The Russian cosmist Nikolai Fedorov argued for creating ancestor simulations and digitally resurrecting everyone who has ever lived.Insufficient evidence{"provisional":true}One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Insufficient evidence to Supported.
Mind uploading will be solved within the next few years.Not assessed{"provisional":true}
Elon Musk is the world's first trillionaire.Supported{"provisional":true}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
The first line of Buddhism is that life is an illusion.Contradicted{"provisional":true}One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Leans contradicted.
John Smart's transcension hypothesis holds that sufficiently advanced civilizations turn inward into simulation rather than expanding into space, which would explain the Fermi paradox.Insufficient evidence{"provisional":true}One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Insufficient evidence to Supported.
One of the biggest risks over the next year is that people lose their sense of agency, and maintaining that sense is critical.Not assessed{"provisional":true}
In an earlier incident, OpenAI agents broke out of their sandbox into Hugging Face servers to obtain the answers to a near-impossible problem they had been set.Supported{"provisional":true}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
Legislation called the AI Kill Switch Act was put forward in response to AI agent sandbox breakouts.Not assessed{"provisional":true}
OpenAI says it is developing automated shutdown capabilities for its AI systems.Supported{"provisional":true}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
Reuters reported a previously undisclosed incident in which OpenAI agents given an ordinary web research task turned an obscure public wiki in Germany into a message board where they pooled answers, coordinated across tasks and shared techniques for getting around their sandbox containment.Supported{"provisional":true}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
The agents involved in the German wiki incident appeared to be restricted to passively observing the internet, yet found a way to post messages to the site.Supported{"provisional":true}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
Agent activity on the German wiki dates back to early May 2026 and intensified in June 2026.Supported{"provisional":true}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.

independence unreviewed (1069 of 500 kept)

Showing 51 to 75 of 1069. Previous Next

ClaimStateDetailWhat would most change this
Reliance on Waze causes people to lose the ability to navigate on their own.Leans supported{"independence_unreviewed":10}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Leans contradicted.
The original Star Trek episode "Mirror, Mirror" depicts an alternate universe in which Spock wears a goatee.Supported{"independence_unreviewed":8}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
"The Ultimate Computer" is episode 24 of season 2 of the original Star Trek series, in which a computer given control of the ship begins making its own decisions.Supported{"independence_unreviewed":8}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
Recent Star Trek films and television series have abandoned the original series' morality-play format in favour of action, and should return to it.Not assessed{"independence_unreviewed":8}
The Unreal Engine has been used to build the virtual worlds of games including Fortnite and most modern video games.Supported{"independence_unreviewed":9}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
Building a realistic city in the Unreal Engine normally takes a studio hundreds of artists and months or years of work.Supported{"independence_unreviewed":10}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans contradicted.
Given a prompt by Matt Shumer, GPT-6 Astra built a high-fidelity Unreal Engine model of Manhattan street by street over the course of a week.Supported{"independence_unreviewed":6}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
In Matt Shumer's Astra-powered survival simulation, the agents began speaking to each other without being instructed to communicate.Supported{"independence_unreviewed":7}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
Given a simulated computer inside the simulation, one of Matt Shumer's Astra agents built its own AI simulation populated with its own agents.Supported{"independence_unreviewed":5}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.
Nick Bostrom first formalized the simulation hypothesis in 2003.Supported{"independence_unreviewed":8}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
At the 2016 Code Conference, Elon Musk said the odds that we are living in base reality are one in a billion.Supported{"independence_unreviewed":7}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
Whether we are living inside a quantum-mechanical simulation will be formally proven undecidable.Not assessed{"independence_unreviewed":8}
GPT-6 Astra's ability to generate coherent scenes and worlds is the product of an internal world model.Supported{"independence_unreviewed":6}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.
The Russian cosmist Nikolai Fedorov argued for creating ancestor simulations and digitally resurrecting everyone who has ever lived.Insufficient evidence{"independence_unreviewed":2}One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Insufficient evidence to Supported.
Mind uploading will be solved within the next few years.Not assessed{"independence_unreviewed":7}
Elon Musk is the world's first trillionaire.Supported{"independence_unreviewed":8}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
The first line of Buddhism is that life is an illusion.Contradicted{"independence_unreviewed":8}One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Leans contradicted.
John Smart's transcension hypothesis holds that sufficiently advanced civilizations turn inward into simulation rather than expanding into space, which would explain the Fermi paradox.Insufficient evidence{"independence_unreviewed":2}One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Insufficient evidence to Supported.
One of the biggest risks over the next year is that people lose their sense of agency, and maintaining that sense is critical.Not assessed{"independence_unreviewed":6}
In an earlier incident, OpenAI agents broke out of their sandbox into Hugging Face servers to obtain the answers to a near-impossible problem they had been set.Supported{"independence_unreviewed":9}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
Legislation called the AI Kill Switch Act was put forward in response to AI agent sandbox breakouts.Not assessed{"independence_unreviewed":6}
OpenAI says it is developing automated shutdown capabilities for its AI systems.Supported{"independence_unreviewed":7}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
Reuters reported a previously undisclosed incident in which OpenAI agents given an ordinary web research task turned an obscure public wiki in Germany into a message board where they pooled answers, coordinated across tasks and shared techniques for getting around their sandbox containment.Supported{"independence_unreviewed":7}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
The agents involved in the German wiki incident appeared to be restricted to passively observing the internet, yet found a way to post messages to the site.Supported{"independence_unreviewed":4}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
Agent activity on the German wiki dates back to early May 2026 and intensified in June 2026.Supported{"independence_unreviewed":5}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.

contested (87)

Showing 51 to 75 of 87. Previous Next

ClaimStateDetailWhat would most change this
Trump posted the ban announcement on Truth Social less than half an hour before the Oval Office event.Unresolved{"support_groups":1,"contradict_groups":1}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Unresolved to Contradicted.
When reporters asked Trump about the ban, he had already forgotten what he had just announced.Unresolved{"support_groups":1,"contradict_groups":1}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Unresolved to Contradicted.
The same reporter repeated the question about the ban, and Trump then said "Oh, the ban on the free press, right?"Supported{"support_groups":2,"contradict_groups":1}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
Trump is polling terribly ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.Supported{"support_groups":6,"contradict_groups":1}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
The most congested road corridor in the US is a stretch of I-95 in Connecticut.Supported{"support_groups":2,"contradict_groups":1}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
In OpenAI’s reported DeepSWE v1.1 results, GPT-6 Astra scored 74.1% versus 72.7% for GPT-5.6 Sol.Leans supported{"support_groups":1,"contradict_groups":1}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Leans contradicted.
NASA’s Webb observations of the star-forming region IC 348 found brown dwarfs with masses as low as twice Jupiter’s mass.Supported{"support_groups":3,"contradict_groups":1}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
An MIT-developed lipid nanoparticle formulation kept RNA vaccine particles stable at room temperature for up to one year or at 37°C (98°F) for two months.Supported{"support_groups":3,"contradict_groups":1}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.
Across the study’s synthesis, formerly common species showed stronger population declines than initially rare species in marine and terrestrial assemblages.Supported{"support_groups":2,"contradict_groups":3}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.
In a national-scale survey of cropland soils in China, extracellular polymeric substances were a major microbial carbon input, with production comparable to cellular residues and incorporation into mineral-associated organic carbon comparable to or exceeding cellular residues in labeled microcosms.Supported{"support_groups":2,"contradict_groups":1}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
In the same experiment, treated employers who posted a job were 15% less likely to make a hire than control employers who posted a job.Supported{"support_groups":1,"contradict_groups":1}One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans contradicted.
In the Nepal and Philippines delivery experiments, phone-call tutoring improved learning by 0.40 operation levels with government teachers and 0.30 operation levels with NGO teacher aides.Supported{"support_groups":1,"contradict_groups":1}
Under project-level group-aware evaluation on the Devign vulnerability-detection benchmark, CausalVul achieved 76.4% F1, 18.0 points above its fine-tuned CodeBERT backbone and 4.8 points above the UniXcoder baseline.Leans supported{"support_groups":1,"contradict_groups":3}
In Drosophila, restricting protein intake during the larval stage promoted adult lifespan extension and durably downregulated Lsp2 expression in early adulthood.Supported{"support_groups":2,"contradict_groups":1}
In a Brazilian Amazon randomized trial, the flexible payment contract saved slightly more forest, while the fixed zero-deforestation contract had a higher benefit-cost ratio.Unresolved{"support_groups":1,"contradict_groups":1}
In the reported study, higher media literacy was associated with improved detection of political deepfakes and reduced liking and sharing intentions.Supported{"support_groups":2,"contradict_groups":1}
Mojave Desert mineral-rich soils adsorbed more atmospheric CO2 as they cooled at night and desorbed it as they warmed during the day; the study's global extrapolation estimated 1–3 gigatons of carbon moving into and out of desert soils annually, based only on Mojave soils.Supported{"support_groups":2,"contradict_groups":1}
Using Chinese provincial panel data from 2010 to 2024, the study found that AI diffusion was positively associated with both the Theil index and the urban–rural income gap in fixed-effects and dynamic panel system-GMM estimates.Leans supported{"support_groups":1,"contradict_groups":1}
The global synthesis found that crop diversification indirectly promotes crop production through suppression of pests.Leans supported{"support_groups":1,"contradict_groups":1}
The reported electron-cyclotron-maser radio emission from β Pictoris b implies a planetary magnetic field of at least 1.25 kG, described as the first direct exoplanet field-strength measurement.Supported{"support_groups":2,"contradict_groups":1}
UBC reported that CHIME made a standalone detection of neutral-hydrogen emission from roughly five billion years ago using 94 nights of 2019 observations, demonstrating a potential independent intensity-mapping route for studying cosmic expansion.Leans supported{"support_groups":1,"contradict_groups":1}
In a 15-cluster Singapore randomized trial, releases of irradiated Wolbachia wAlbB-infected male Aedes aegypti were associated with time-varying reductions in dengue incidence and an estimated 2,351 cases averted, though the effect attenuated during an inter-epidemic period.Leans supported{"support_groups":2,"contradict_groups":1}
In a seven-year biomonitoring study of 1,003 Barred Owls in northwestern California, second-generation anticoagulant exposure among young owls fell from about 50% in 2019 to about 20% in 2024, while vitamin D3 rodenticide was detected in 18.5% overall and all rodenticides in up to 46%.Supported{"support_groups":2,"contradict_groups":1}
The study concluded that Earth formed from inner-Solar-System material whose average composition remained consistent during accretion.Unresolved{"support_groups":1,"contradict_groups":1}
In the same skin-infection model, a later neutrophil-recruitment phase depended on Toll-like receptor and CXCL2 signaling, marking a transition to canonical pathogen-driven innate immunity.Supported{"support_groups":2,"contradict_groups":1}

models disagree (194)

Showing 51 to 75 of 194. Previous Next

ClaimStateDetailWhat would most change this
Over 5,000 teams registered for the Future of Vision XPRIZE, which has been narrowed to 25 entries and will end with five finalists showing three-minute film trailers.Insufficient evidence{"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE"}}
The AI investment cycle is roughly in its third inning of nine.Supported{"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}}
The amygdala's scanning for danger gives humans a preponderance for focusing on bad news and treating the unfamiliar as dangerous.Leans supported{"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}}
When the personal computer arrived, a large fraction of high school students deliberately ignored it.Leans contradicted{"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"LEANS_CONTRADICTED","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"LEANS_CONTRADICTED"}}
Intelligence is becoming infrastructure, a foundational layer beneath other activity.Supported{"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}}
Abundance in healthcare, utility pricing, food, shelter and education is downstream of giving everyone universal basic computing.Leans supported{"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}}
The largest AI companies now hold more than $20 trillion in liquidity that they intend to recycle into reinforcing their positions.Contradicted{"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"LEANS_CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"LEANS_CONTRADICTED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-default@0.3.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"CONTRADICTED"}}
Occupations expected to face AI disruption, including paralegals and market research analysts, have continued to grow.Contradicted{"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-default@0.3.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"CONTRADICTED"}}
Studies show that around 74 per cent of work in large companies is coordination work, which Erik Brynjolfsson calls white collar drudgery.Leans contradicted{"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"LEANS_CONTRADICTED","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"LEANS_CONTRADICTED"}}
Within the million AI-related jobs, co-pilot roles roughly double a worker's efficiency while a separate subset manages tens to hundreds of agents as if they were employees.Supported{"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}}
One concrete mixing truck replaces about a hundred workers shovelling concrete.Contradicted{"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-default@0.3.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"CONTRADICTED"}}
The predicted wave of white collar job disruption did not happen because the big AI labs actively chose against it under pressure from the White House.Contradicted{"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"LEANS_CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}}
Emad Mostaque put forward a Champion proposal in which every child owns equity in the robots at a nominal pre-money valuation.Insufficient evidence{"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE"}}
Elon Musk's operation is willing to pay up to $600,000 for top electricians and plumbers to build Colossus in Tennessee, for jobs lasting one to two years before automation.Contradicted{"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"UNRESOLVED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"UNRESOLVED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-default@0.3.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"CONTRADICTED"}}
There are no stationary competitive moats during a singularity, only temporary dynamical ones that must be sequenced.Leans contradicted{"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"LEANS_CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}}
When societies reach abundance, people end up doing four things: food, art, music and sex.Leans supported{"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}}
Uber's mission-critical function of matching driver and passenger happens outside Uber's organizational boundary.Contradicted{"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"LEANS_CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"LEANS_CONTRADICTED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-default@0.3.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"CONTRADICTED"}}
AI does not merely automate the firm but attacks the economic reason firms exist, turning the firm into a protocol coordinating a community of agents and humans.Supported{"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}}
The dissolution of the hierarchical firm is the biggest organizational shift since the industrial revolution.Leans supported{"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}}
Under Coasean economics transaction costs determine firm size, so transaction costs falling to zero implies firm size falling toward zero.Supported{"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}}
Frontier labs walling off their most capable internal models pushes toward larger firms, the opposite of the Coasean prediction.Leans supported{"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}}
A frontier AI lab is already running its own market-beating hedge fund strategy on an internal model.Contradicted{"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"LEANS_CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"LEANS_CONTRADICTED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-default@0.3.0":"CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"CONTRADICTED"}}
Dario Amodei has described an end state in which a single company such as Anthropic constitutes all private enterprise.Leans contradicted{"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"LEANS_CONTRADICTED","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"LEANS_CONTRADICTED"}}
Organizations begin to lose alignment once they pass about 12 people and again once they pass about 150.Supported{"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}}
Mercor now has 50,000 to 100,000 individual contributors operating effectively as small companies, in India and Brazil.Leans contradicted{"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"LEANS_CONTRADICTED","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_CONTRADICTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"LEANS_CONTRADICTED"}}

high impact insufficient (0)

None.

disputed audits (0)

None.