Where we are most likely to be wrong
Deterministic lists as of snapshot 27745 under ledger-default@0.3.0. Each entry shows what would most change it.
unfinished outlines (0)
None.
strained inferences (0)
None.
low coverage scored (695 of 500 kept)
provisional (1071 of 500 kept)
independence unreviewed (1069 of 500 kept)
| Claim | State | Detail | What would most change this |
|---|---|---|---|
| Navier-Stokes was solved by a generalist model reasoning from first principles for 88 hours without fine-tuning, rather than by a physics-informed neural network. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":8} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| Demis Hassabis solved protein folding using AI and subsequently received a Nobel Prize. | Insufficient evidence | {"independence_unreviewed":4} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Insufficient evidence to Supported. |
| The Nobel Prize is typically awarded for work done about 30 years earlier. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":10} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| The researchers behind the Euler blowup result wrote a letter saying OpenAI offered them credit and lead authorship on the Navier-Stokes paper on condition that their Anthropic co-author be dropped. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":4} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported. |
| Sébastien Bubeck, who leads the OpenAI effort, has posted an account presenting the authorship dispute as a misunderstanding. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":4} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans contradicted. |
| The Navier-Stokes equations govern fluid dynamics and underpin aircraft design, submarine design and modelling blood flow in artificial hearts. | Leans supported | {"independence_unreviewed":2} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Contradicted. |
| Terence Tao previously flagged that the right initial conditions in an idealized fluid could in principle produce a self-replicating machine making ever-smaller copies of itself. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":7} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| OpenAI's Navier-Stokes announcement carried a disclaimer that the team cannot rule out that other teams' work was incorporated into the training of the model used to solve the problem. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":9} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Frontier labs should not train on outside researchers' work and then compete with those researchers, and should let them benefit from frontier capabilities without that risk. | Not assessed | {"independence_unreviewed":4} | |
| A model could not be trained to this capability in that timeframe without a recursive self-improvement loop, so OpenAI has one running. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":6} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| For 500 years scientific output scaled with the number of brilliant scientists who could be trained, and that constraint has now been replaced by spinning up thousands of AI researchers on demand. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":7} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| Yang-Mills will be the next Millennium Prize problem to fall. | Not assessed | {"independence_unreviewed":6} | |
| OpenAI was targeting the Riemann hypothesis and P versus NP before switching its effort to Navier-Stokes. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":8} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported. |
| The Yang-Mills Millennium Prize problem is a conjecture in particle theory concerning the existence of a mass gap under certain conditions. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":6} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Blitzy delivers 80 per cent or more of enterprise development work autonomously, and enterprises using it achieve a fivefold increase in engineering velocity. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":7} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Jakub Pachocki is OpenAI's chief scientist and built the reasoning models that led to GPT-6 Astra. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":7} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| Jakub Pachocki published an essay titled "An alien mind" on OpenAI's website on the Saturday before this episode was recorded. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":7} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans contradicted. |
| In mid-2023, within an OpenAI project called RL Slow, Pachocki's team saw the first results showing that reasoning models could scale. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":4} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Pachocki wrote that, based on internal results, he has strong expectations that the current speed of progress could be sustained into recursive self-improvement. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":4} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| Pachocki wrote that AI is grown more than designed, produced by running an optimization step billions of times and then studied the way neuroscientists study a brain. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":3} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| Pachocki called for voluntary slowdowns to become commonplace until shared safety bars are established, and for international coordination on AI to become a top priority for governments. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":5} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| Pachocki published his call for slowdowns three days after OpenAI shipped the most capable model in the world. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":14} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| Pachocki wrote the "alien mind" essay while already holding the internal model that went on to solve Navier-Stokes. | Leans contradicted | {"independence_unreviewed":10} | One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Leans contradicted to Supported. |
| OpenAI's new internal model is solving many problems beyond Navier-Stokes that were previously intractable. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":7} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| The claim that AI has never produced anything original and merely recombines its training data can no longer be sustained. | Supported | {"independence_unreviewed":9} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported. |
contested (87)
None.
models disagree (194)
| Claim | State | Detail | What would most change this |
|---|---|---|---|
| In Drosophila, restricting protein intake during the larval stage promoted adult lifespan extension and durably downregulated Lsp2 expression in early adulthood. | Supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported. |
| In Drosophila, genetic silencing of Lsp2 reduced early-adult ribosomal-protein abundance and translational activity while extending lifespan; restricting phenylalanine or tyrosine also reduced early-life Lsp2 and promoted longevity. | Supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported. |
| The reported network analysis found that Rome was not the dominant hub of the Roman Empire’s land-transport network and that Byzantium was more central to empire-wide land mobility. | Leans supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED"}} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Leans contradicted. |
| The reported analysis found a moderate overall correlation between Roman and modern roads across the former Roman Empire, with substantial variation by location. | Leans supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE"}} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Contradicted. |
| In a Brazilian Amazon randomized trial, the flexible payment contract saved slightly more forest, while the fixed zero-deforestation contract had a higher benefit-cost ratio. | Unresolved | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"UNRESOLVED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"UNRESOLVED","ledger-default@0.3.0":"UNRESOLVED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"UNRESOLVED"}} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Unresolved to Contradicted. |
| In the reported firm-level study, trade frictions, proxied by trade-remedy investigations, were associated with increased corporate social-responsibility engagement. | Supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved. |
| In the reported firm-level study, corporate social-responsibility engagement subsequently reduced future business risk. | Supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported. |
| In two reported experiments on dark cultural heritage communication, advertising appeal type affected willingness to support heritage preservation through emotional arousal and self-construal, with effects that were not fully consistent across verbal and behavioral outcomes. | Supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported. |
| A resurrection experiment in common morning glory found that changing genetic covariance structures increasingly constrained evolutionary trajectories, limiting adaptation of flowering phenology despite selection for rapid change. | Supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | |
| Using Chinese provincial panel data from 2010 to 2024, the study found that AI diffusion was positively associated with both the Theil index and the urban–rural income gap in fixed-effects and dynamic panel system-GMM estimates. | Leans supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED"}} | |
| In Arabidopsis, salicylic acid stabilized NPR1 and promoted its interaction with the Mediator subunit MED15A; NIMIN1 competed for the same NPR1 docking site and antagonized salicylic-acid signaling. | Supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | |
| The study defines void suppression capability as the product of lithium full-stripping areal capacity and applied current density, and phase-field modelling predicts dendrite growth and cell failure when stripped capacity exceeds 70% of full depletion capacity. | Supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | |
| The global synthesis found that crop diversification indirectly promotes crop production through suppression of pests. | Leans supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | |
| In a 38-person online pilot randomized trial, adding an Emphasis Change attention-priority strategy to the Breakfast Game improved near-transfer multitasking and executive-control outcomes versus active control, but not distant-transfer mood or everyday cognitive-activity measures. | Leans supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED"}} | |
| In the AMP trials, prophylactic VRC01 selected de novo HIV escape mutations in 8 of 26 treated participants but none of 21 placebo participants; several mutations caused cross-resistance, while N6 and 1–18 largely retained activity. | Insufficient evidence | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE"}} | |
| In a 45-eye randomized trial of pseudophakic primary open-angle glaucoma, GATT produced greater 24-month intraocular-pressure and medication reductions and higher complete surgical success than BANG, with similar reoperation counts. | Insufficient evidence | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE"}} | |
| UBC reported that CHIME made a standalone detection of neutral-hydrogen emission from roughly five billion years ago using 94 nights of 2019 observations, demonstrating a potential independent intensity-mapping route for studying cosmic expansion. | Leans supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED"}} | |
| In a 15-cluster Singapore randomized trial, releases of irradiated Wolbachia wAlbB-infected male Aedes aegypti were associated with time-varying reductions in dengue incidence and an estimated 2,351 cases averted, though the effect attenuated during an inter-epidemic period. | Leans supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED"}} | |
| The study concluded that Earth formed from inner-Solar-System material whose average composition remained consistent during accretion. | Unresolved | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"LEANS_SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"UNRESOLVED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"UNRESOLVED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"UNRESOLVED","ledger-default@0.3.0":"UNRESOLVED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"UNRESOLVED"}} | |
| In a global analysis of 58,319 outbreak event records for 32 diseases, reporting declined by a median of 32% for each additional hour of travel time from a health facility. | Insufficient evidence | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE"}} | |
| In a skin-infection model with pathogenic bacteria and fungi, microbial adhesion initiated an early PRR-independent neutrophil-recruitment phase by engaging Piezo1 and promoting leukotriene B4, interleukin-1α, and CXCL1 signaling. | Supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | |
| In the same skin-infection model, a later neutrophil-recruitment phase depended on Toll-like receptor and CXCL2 signaling, marking a transition to canonical pathogen-driven innate immunity. | Supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | |
| ArmA is a glycosyl hydrolase specific for archaeal peptidoglycan, and the study found that it cleaves archaeal cell-wall material at the site of methanogen cell division. | Insufficient evidence | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-default@0.2.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE"}} | |
| The rapid syn-eruptive submarine caldera collapse at Hunga enhanced tsunami hazards, with tsunami wave heights reaching about 40 m at distances up to 100 km and associated volcaniclastic density currents damaging seafloor infrastructure. | Supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} | |
| SRPX2 expression was elevated in CKD patient kidney and serum samples and in experimental renal-fibrosis models, while global or tubular-epithelial deletion of Srpx2 attenuated kidney injury and fibrosis in mice. | Supported | {"states":{"ledger-default@0.1.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.1.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.2.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.2.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE","ledger-default@0.3.0":"SUPPORTED","ledger-strict@0.3.0":"NOT_APPLICABLE"}} |
high impact insufficient (0)
None.
disputed audits (0)
None.