Claim

Repeat seafloor mapping found that the 2022 Hunga eruption deepened the caldera from about 150 m to about 850 m and displaced 8.9 ± 0.1 cubic kilometres, of which 6.85 ± 0.05 cubic kilometres was attributed to caldera collapse.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 20219 · qualifiers {"event":"15 January 2022 Hunga volcano eruption, Tonga."}

39 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 108 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 71, shared 35. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Earth science · 1efd24fe Environment · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9781 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 1 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 6 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:823fb130-8c99-8f6a-ba70-4999a09bcdbb

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from nature.com and scienmag.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The primary abstract directly reports the mapped depth change, total displaced volume, and collapse-attributed volume. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt directly reports caldera deepening from about 150 to 850 m, 8.9 ± 0.1 km3 displaced, and 6.85 ± 0.05 km3 from collapse.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9781 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 6 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:c68c149a2bdb2b5e74c5e291a08e65f22e6cec6f2c10979202e25e5603eb8646

Last changed at entry seq 26028; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
d8a50497 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 6da15cd8)
22cc1a3b support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
e9e8452c qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)
9f95d55f qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)
2b2b7c5a qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)
6da15cd8 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	2.000000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 3.800000 (the counted weights) = 3.800000 → probability 0.9781

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9346 to 0.9929, a spread of 0.0583.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“Repeat seafloor mapping found that the 2022 Hunga eruption deepened the caldera from about 150 m to about 850 m and displaced 8.9 ± 0.1 cubic kilometres, of...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“Repeat high-resolution seafloor mapping before and after the 15 January 2022 Hunga eruption found that the submarine caldera deepened by roughly 700 metres,...” · 2 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The primary abstract directly reports the mapped depth change, total displaced volume, and collapse-attributed volume.

From Rapid submarine caldera collapse during the 2022 climactic eruption of Hunga volcano (Tonga) Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
A secondary report corroborates the mapped Hunga caldera collapse of more than 1 kilometer and the approximately 8.9-cubic-kilometre displaced volume.

From Hunga Volcano's Seafloor Collapse in 2022 Unleashed a Cascade of Extreme Hazards Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The excerpt directly reports caldera deepening from about 150 to 850 m, 8.9 ± 0.1 km3 displaced, and 6.85 ± 0.05 km3 from collapse.

From Rapid submarine caldera collapse during the 2022 climactic eruption of Hunga volcano (Tonga) Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

Depth changed from approximately 150 to 850 metres, while the structural floor lies about 150 metres below pyroclastic infill.

From Rapid submarine caldera collapse during the 2022 climactic eruption of Hunga volcano (Tonga) Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
Total displacement is 8.9 ± 0.1 km³, but 6.85 ± 0.05 km³ is specifically collapse-attributed and the remainder erosion.

From Rapid submarine caldera collapse during the 2022 climactic eruption of Hunga volcano (Tonga) Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The estimates describe Hunga volcano in Tonga after the 15 January 2022 eruption, based on repeat seafloor mapping.

From Rapid submarine caldera collapse during the 2022 climactic eruption of Hunga volcano (Tonga) Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
db773afd		6da15cd8

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	d8a50497, e9e8452c, 9f95d55f, 2b2b7c5a, 6da15cd8

Summary

Supported. The main support is: A secondary report corroborates the mapped Hunga caldera collapse of more than 1 kilometer and the approximately 8.9-cubic-kilometre displaced volume. c4d479e7

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. db773afd

Qualifier: Depth changed from approximately 150 to 850 metres, while the structural floor lies about 150 metres below pyroclastic infill. b4bc2a9c

Qualifier: Total displacement is 8.9 ± 0.1 km³, but 6.85 ± 0.05 km³ is specifically collapse-attributed and the remainder erosion. 99234e6e

Qualifier: The estimates describe Hunga volcano in Tonga after the 15 January 2022 eruption, based on repeat seafloor mapping. 971eadf9

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:823fb130-8c99-8f6a-ba70-4999a09bcdbb

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
20219	APPENDED
20220	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
20231	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
20247	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24811	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
26027	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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