Claim

In the same experiment, treated employers who posted a job were 15% less likely to make a hire than control employers who posted a job.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 14472 · qualifiers {"denominator":"Conditional on employers posting a job; the source's reported relative effect."}

Referenced 105 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 75, shared 29. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Employment · 1efd24fe AI · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.8022 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:a366092f-3000-886d-ba03-295c4dfe4acc

Not yet independently audited.Evidence points both ways.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage is in something this server does not read, such as a PDF or a recording, so it has not been checked here.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The results report 19% higher posting, 15% lower conditional hiring, and equal unconditional matching probability. weight 2.000000 evidence

Strongest counted contradiction: A separate employer experiment reported a roughly three-percentage-point increase in hiring under treatment. weight 0.600000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt explicitly reports that employers posting jobs under treatment were 15% less likely to make a hire.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans contradicted.

Hide calculation

0.8022 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 3 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:f5aaa00bd97ac4001173c38471d96bae5fcd76b0a6f6e88875faca8e66f24e9e

Last changed at entry seq 25041; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
44dd0e8f contradict	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.600000	0.600000
95a584b3 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	2.000000
b929a6be support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 95a584b3)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 1.400000 (the counted weights) = 1.400000 → probability 0.8022

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.7271 to 0.8606, a spread of 0.1335.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“A large randomized field experiment found that offering employers AI-written first drafts increased job posting but did not increase matches: treated...” · 2 claims · 28 September 2026

Evidence for

The results report 19% higher posting, 15% lower conditional hiring, and equal unconditional matching probability.

From More, but Worse: The Marketplace Effects of AI-Generated Job Posts Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The passage directly reports the conditional 15% hiring reduction.
The excerpt explicitly reports that employers posting jobs under treatment were 15% less likely to make a hire.

From More, but Worse: The Marketplace Effects of AI-Generated Job Posts Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The quoted passage directly states the conditional hiring reduction.

Evidence against

A separate employer experiment reported a roughly three-percentage-point increase in hiring under treatment.

From How Do Employers Use Compensation History? Read 2026-09-28 Relevance MODERATE Steps 0 Counted

This is an independent experiment with a different treatment and platform context, so it provides opposing directional evidence without directly identifying the target study's estimate.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
b6f74556		95a584b3

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	44dd0e8f, 95a584b3, b929a6be

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The results report 19% higher posting, 15% lower conditional hiring, and equal unconditional matching probability. 0b1d6a1e

Against that, contradiction: A separate employer experiment reported a roughly three-percentage-point increase in hiring under treatment. cafc65f8

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. b6f74556

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 72e1170e

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:a366092f-3000-886d-ba03-295c4dfe4acc

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
14472	APPENDED
14473	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
14484	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
14488	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
14831	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "claim": "a366092f-3000-886d-ba03-295c4dfe4acc",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "4c19d3c0-90c9-8b0e-8a13-abd944dd0e8f",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "34a0e387-1dbb-871c-a075-a912cafc65f8",
      "direction": "CONTRADICT",
      "magnitude": "0.600000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.600000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
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    {
      "link": "610060f9-5ab3-8061-907f-efe195a584b3",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "1a492079-f86e-8fd1-bfac-b8230b1d6a1e",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
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      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "2.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "610060f9-5ab3-8061-907f-efe195a584b3",
      "link": "f5719890-4502-809d-a50e-cbacb929a6be",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "15fa4c6d-48dc-878f-8119-d196b6f74556",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1335",
    "permissive": "0.8606",
    "conservative": "0.7271"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": true,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8022",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "1.400000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25041,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
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      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "4c19d3c0-90c9-8b0e-8a13-abd944dd0e8f",
        "610060f9-5ab3-8061-907f-efe195a584b3",
        "f5719890-4502-809d-a50e-cbacb929a6be"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 1,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "1.400000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}