Galedra
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Claim

OpenAI says it is developing automated shutdown capabilities for its AI systems.

Type OBSERVATIONAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 1439

Referenced 131 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 100, shared 29. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

AI · 03192ed8

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9892 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 3 counted

3 independent evidence lineages · review checks 3 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 7 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:1d9c4558-0976-8833-951a-6f15257af555

Not yet independently audited.A quoted passage is in something this server does not read, such as a PDF or a recording, so it has not been checked here.

Related: NARROWS incoming: Supported

Why?

Strongest counted support: OpenAI says it is building monitoring systems whose end goal includes fully autonomous shutdown procedures for severe issues. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: Speaker says OpenAI says it is now developing automated shutdown capabilities for its AI systems.; Speaker says OpenAI says it is developing automated shutdown capabilities for its AI systems.

Review gaps: independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9892 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 3 of 4 · stability HIGH · 7 sources, 3 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:e11e58e2db1c0ed26fa7a1b5cb93a5ef2390a5df346c094a1a3a6f259ae43688

Last changed at entry seq 9017; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
b70b7611 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
758b09a7 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation HEARSAY 0.1 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 9fbf22c4)
02bb1585 qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (non directional)
0f074fbd support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
efd35638 support relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.918000 0.918000
9fbf22c4 support relevance WEAK 0.2 × observation HEARSAY 0.1 × interpretation 2 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 2 0.700000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000
35e4b8bb support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 9fbf22c4)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 4.518000 (the counted weights) = 4.518000 → probability 0.9892

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9594 to 0.9972, a spread of 0.0378.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

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Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
2da50b869fbf22c4
eabae58e9fbf22c4

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

FromRelationshipTo
f80c52a2NARROWS257af555

Review checklist

Review checks: 3 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedyes2194ad11
opposing search doneyesade5b5a6
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyesb70b7611

Summary

Supported. The main support is: OpenAI says it is building monitoring systems whose end goal includes fully autonomous shutdown procedures for severe issues. fab631ff

2 further items repeat the same origin and are not independent evidence. 2da50b86eabae58e

Qualifier: The report attributes the statement to a company letter, identifies two recipients, and uses developing rather than deployed language. 4305e344

A narrower version of this claim is supported. f80c52a2

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. ade5b5a6

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. ade5b5a6

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
1439APPENDED
1440ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
1585LINK_EVIDENCEby 03192ed8 (accepted)
3792TASK_RESULTby 03192ed8 (accepted)
4438LINK_EVIDENCEby 03192ed8 (accepted)
4813TASK_RESULTby 56fe4c61 (accepted)
7754TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
7814TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
9016TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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