Research agents at 3.1 to 1, and a roadmap pulled forward six months

Yeah. There are two other stories to hit on this AGI theme. Um, the first story: OpenAI's internal data says that AI research agents are now completing 3.1 days of research work for every one day done by a human researcher. Earlier in this year — you know, in this year, like in the last 5 months — agents were doing less than one day of work as compared to humans. So OpenAI is saying that we've now crossed the line and current systems are exceeding AI research interns.

The second story I'll just put forward, uh, and then we'll talk about it, is a statement by OpenAI's engineering lead for Codex. This is Thibault Sottiaux, who posted the following, and let me read from uh from his comments. He said, Astra was probably our biggest competitive advantage while it wasn't generally available. Right? While they had it internally, it was our biggest competitive advantage. Since we've had it, our productivity jumped so much that we've shifted some of our plans 6 months ahead and we'll ship them at DevDay instead of mid next year.

So, I mean, Dave, you know, 6 months of roadmap being pulled forward by one model.

I mean, this is without a doubt the most important moment in human history. And I truly believe that they're not lying. You know, a lot of naysayers will say, look, they're trying to promote their capabilities in advance of an IPO, blah, blah. It's not true. If you talk to the actual researchers working in the labs, many of whom are friends of ours, there's no doubt that those numbers are exactly right and accelerating, though. Just a few months ago, it wasn't true. Now, with the Fable 5.1 and Astra models, it's absolutely 3 to 1. Sure. But it's on the tipping point of being 300, 3,000, 3 million to one imminently. This is the moment in time that's most important in societal history.

Yeah. Um, Alex, your thought on this. I mean, we've talked about the fact that the frontier labs have the best models they're retaining for their own use. Here you hear uh, you know, the head of Codex, you know, making that statement. And how many models ahead are they beyond uh, beyond Astra?

They're only a few months ahead, I think. But look, recursive self-improvement is here. Please, please, please let me say something about Navier-Stokes, because that is —

Okay. Okay, we can — we can jump —

I'm out of order, Peter. We have to — we can't —

You're so excited. So — so everybody, you know, on text this morning, I'm getting like red alerts from Alex. Yeah, go for it, Alex.